This week Brett gets into the fundamentals that are being forgotten amongst all the negative media. It's been a battle wary few years with so many major changes as well as various acts of self harm from Brexit to tax changes and Idiotic Elections as well as clear lacks in any leadership from our politicians. The market hates uncertainty and right now we have so much of it.
But look deeper and you will see through the smoke screen and through to the fundamentals which right now are looking pretty good for the rest of the UK. Let's face it the past 10 years hasn't really amounted to anything except a lost generation (Thanks Blair/Brown and Cameron/Osbourne all uninspiring leaders who lost sight of the people they represented.)
Hey guys, welcome to this week's Property News.
So what I'm going today is to really give you an overview of the fundamentals that are going on, because the interesting thing I find with the whole game right now is that there's so much distraction or distracting news and media about the negative side of things. But then there's also the voice of reason. And I guess the challenge we've got right now is we've got all these data coming in and these fundamentals and things going on. And you know, what are we to believe?
Are we to believe that we're actually going to go in a massive crash? The likes of you know, 2008, 2007, 2008, or is it a fact that actually the UK is going to be quite insulated against it and certainly on the second opinion rather than the first? But I think the real thing here is, and what's clouding most of our judgments and making it really hard and you know, let's make their mistakes, our politicians are a bunch of buffoons, you know.
They are monkeys hanging around in trees because they have no clue what they're doing, you know. There's no direction, there's no leadership, you know. Everyone's after themselves. It's all about, you know, feathering their own narcissisms. Really, there's nothing inspirational about them. That's what really disappoints me, is you know, you just don't have the inspiration. And you know, that's not just the UK too, this is the whole world because look at all the stuff that's going on with the U.S and you know, Trump, I mean, he's king buffoon. But anyway, the whole problem with this is that all of the stuff, whether it be Brexit, whether it be Trump, whether it be, you know, Kim Jong-il in North Korea, it's all creating uncertainty. And that's the fundamental thing. You know, where there's uncertainty, that's where the market actually will give the shutters and that's where you won't get a good stable growth, that's where you get lots of negativity, and that's where you get the chances of, you know, stepping back in the recession. And the interesting thing is, if you look at it...we're 10 years.
Since the last downturn and the last recession. And actually, you know, if we think about it, we go through these cycles every round about 10 years, and the interesting thing is that hasn't happened yet. Things have been pretty good. And I'll validate that by saying this, "They haven't been really good." I mean, if you just going to look at, you know, the housing market, the housing market still still reeling a decade after the financial crisis. And this is absolutely true. You know, not true of London. London has done very well. It's recovered very well.
Commuter towns have recovered very well, but the rest of the UK has really suffered. I mean, Manchester, Liverpool okay, yet in a few exceptions here and there. But for the most of UK, you're probably sitting on your house foyer round about or what it was 10 years ago and not much has happened in the meantime, which is pretty bad considering that, you know, we used to say, the biggest assumption of property was it doubles every 7 to 10 years. That hasn't happened for most houses, you know, around the UK. They're only now starting to look like things, and the local market is starting to get back in.
So I actually think, and you know, this is my prediction too, is I don't think we're going to have a big recession, you know. And only will have a recession at all. I think actually, the downturn this time will be very, very mild for the UK because why? Because if you have a galloping, massive, you know, lift-up, then you're likely to have the drop-off. But because we've actually had this, you know, lift, and then really curbs through Brexit and through tax changes and through all these things, you know. And a lot of them, for me, you know, what I call "self-harming" ourselves, it's like there's no real reason for them apart from stupidity on them, you know, on politicians part.
But really, by having that crest, the lower crest, the actual bottom half of the trough is going to be a lot less. So actually, that's quite good news. If you get through the rubbish and garbage in the news, you'll find actually, there's some pretty good news out there. You know, house price, the UK house price growth ticks up, London price are falling. Actually, London price have been falling for the last two years. We've been saying this for the last two years. You know, they've been, not falling dramatically, but they've been tapering off, you know. They haven't been growing.They've been a lot more reasonable. So that's happened. And actually, you know, now, what I've started to see is the bottom being called for the London market, which is another interesting, because most people think we're just starting to see it.
We're not just starting to see it. Don't you see what the newspaper say? Yet the thing is, the newspapers are always coming well after the fact. They're not ahead of the curve. They're not riding the wave. So, you know, this is interesting. So this data that's coming out now, you know, the market is still good. First-time buyers are buying, you know, getting mortgages, all bid, they're a lot more subdued, and if you're trying to remortgage and buy a more expensive house, it's a lot harder to do that.
So that's what...For me, that's where it's highway robbery, you know. And they're actually robbing a lot of people their pension, retirement, and future. Because certainly, pension funds and big corporations are not looking after them and not producing the results that they, you know, supposedly should. And of course, they're regulated, so I could hide behind that wall, you know, but that's me, a property guy saying that. But I'm sure if you've seen your pension, you're probably not damn impressed with it, and if you've seen the fees and the hidden fees and all that sort of stuff that's going on in the last 20 years, then you'll know exactly what I'm talking about.
UK house price growth slows with London and Northeast hardest hit. You know, absolutely. Why the heck quite a good growth? Northeast, look, you know, we'll talk about that in another video. But effectively, London and the surrounds have been the real big benefits of the last 10 years. Now we're starting to see the rest of the UK do quite well. And actually even in the Northeast, funny enough, the local market is doing quite well.
So you know, there's transactions happening. The problem is, a lot of stuff isn't coming to the market. There's no lot of stuff being built because of all these other issues which we'll talk about elsewhere. That mean actually, we're not building enough, so prices are continuing to grow and will continue to grow.
And anyone that says, "In 10 years time," you know, "Bartlett is dead. Get out of Bartlett, you know, they're going to be shown as fools, because the reality is, Bartlett is not dead. Yes they'd made it harder, yes you have to be more focused on making money, yes you have to act like it's a business and be a professional. But actually, that's not such of a bad thing, you know. If you accept those rules of the game, then, you know, you will make money. There's no way that all these big companies are investing billions into the UK property.
There's no way all these Chinese and Asian investors, whose local communist is doing very well that are investing in the UK because they see it as a fantastic investment. That hasn't changed. They still see the fundamentals, long term. And in 10 years time, people who got out of Bartlett because they said, "Oh end of Bartlett, death of Bartlett." They'll be looking back down. "Hmm yeah, egg on my face. I'm a bloody idiot." Well, don't be a bloody idiot, yeah?
Get in but what you're going to realize is, you're going to have to jump through if you want it, simple as that. Get over it, learn the rules of the game, apply the rules of the game and you will make money without any doubt.
Okay guys, have a great day. Live with passion.