How To Simply Predict Where Interest Rates Are Going in 2, 5, 10 Years

Brett Alegre-Wood
September 15, 2020

Calculating the current mortgage rates 

What we are looking at here are the risks. What the long term interest rates are going to do. And I can make my decisions based in my property portfolio.

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This is basically off nationwide today; it's their current mortgage rates but you can do this with any mortgage company on their website. What you're doing here is you're looking for risk. So what I'm going to look at in this, I want to see what I think the long-term interest rates are going to do, so I can make my decisions based on my portfolio.

A lot of people are saying, you know there's going to be massive inflation now. If that was true and there was massive inflation then we would expect today's interest rate to be low tomorrow's you know two years, five years, ten years to be much higher maybe not ten years that's quite a long way. But certainly two years and five years you'd expect a massive jump if you're expecting lots of inflation. 

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If we have a look at this and let's look at the two-year fixed with no product fee right now that's at 2.24% in other words they're prepared to guarantee the next two point two years two point two four percent with no product fee all right. Then now let's go to the same product for five years so that is now 2.39% so it's gone up .15% in other words hardly anything. So that's important okay hardly any increase between 2 years and 5 years. So the prediction from that perspective would be that things are going to be relatively flat. 

Now the other side is it says that actually we could be in recession they could be predicting recession and their rates aren't going to drop below zero because their 0.1% now is the base yeah so they might be expecting that it's not going to really go up at all in the next five years or very little.

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Now let's go to 10 years so if you look at 10 years for the same product 2.59% so a little bit higher but still not actually that bad you know. So now if you think about a 10 year fixed that's not bad if you can do it at 2.59% you know what that's not a bad rate. 

So the question is are things going to drop? What they're saying is that effectively just with this basic and it's a basic look at it. What they're saying is that rates aren't going to go up that much over the next 10 years. Now that's really really that's either really really bad news because it means that interest rates are going to drop dramatically or sorry that the economy is going to drop dramatically and they're going to keep their rates roughly where they are in which case you probably get them around the same. Or by increasing them slightly means that over the next five and ten years, two, five, ten years we're gonna see the recovery but it probably isn't going to be a massive increase.

Video Transcription

This is basically off nationwide today; it's their current mortgage rates but you can do this with any mortgage company on their website. What you're doing here is you're looking for risk. So what I'm going to look at in this, I want to see what I think the long-term interest rates are going to do, so I can make my decisions based on my portfolio. A lot of people are saying, you know there's going to be massive inflation now. If that was true and there was massive inflation then we would expect today's interest rate to be low tomorrow's you know two years, five years, ten years to be much higher maybe not ten years that's quite a long way. But certainly two years and five years you'd expect a massive jump if you're expecting lots of inflation. If we have a look at this and let's look at the two-year fixed with no product fee right now that's at 2.24% in other words they're prepared to guarantee the next two point two years two point two four percent with no product fee all right. Then now let's go to the same product for five years so that is now 2.39% so it's gone up .15% in other words hardly anything. So that's important okay hardly any increase between 2 years and 5 years. So the prediction from that perspective would be that things are going to be relatively flat. Now the other side is it says that actually we could be in recession they could be predicting recession and their rates aren't going to drop below zero because their 0.1% now is the base yeah so they might be expecting that it's not going to really go up at all in the next five years or very little.Now let's go to 10 years so if you look at 10 years for the same product 2.59% so a little bit higher but still not actually that bad you know. So now if you think about a 10 year fixed that's not bad if you can do it at 2.59% you know what that's not a bad rate. So the question is are things going to drop? What they're saying is that effectively just with this basic and it's a basic look at it. What they're saying is that rates aren't going to go up that much over the next 10 years. Now that's really really that's either really really bad news because it means that interest rates are going to drop dramatically or sorry that the economy is going to drop dramatically and they're going to keep their rates roughly where they are in which case you probably get them around the same. Or by increasing them slightly means that over the next five and ten years, two, five, ten years we're gonna see the recovery but it probably isn't going to be a massive increase.


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