Live Webinar Replay – Did We Fall Off A Cliff in Q1… Q2/Q3 2021 Predictions, Strategies, Hotspots for the Rest of the Year.

Brett Alegre-Wood
April 15, 2021

Thankfully we didn't fall off the cliff... In fact things are looking even better than before and the market is thriving with every month.

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Webinar Transcription

Brett AlegreWood: Welcome, thank you for taking time out to join us, and hopefully we'll have some really good content.

Brett AlegreWood: I think I think the great thing about this, and this is not necessarily designed to cover every possible thing we could Okay, and I think that's interesting because actually I was looking at my favorite food show you guys see that.

Brett AlegreWood: A taxi that, let me move my feet away.

Brett AlegreWood: With the phone So you see here on my screen, hopefully, you can see it.

Brett AlegreWood: This is actually all of my slides that i've been running every week I do a live stream and every week I have probably 10 to 20 lives.

Brett AlegreWood: slides stats articles things like that, and so this is just these these are just the slides that i've looked at pretty much any question, you can possibly ask about property, there were only in January now let's keep going and then December, you know we'll wait for this DEMO.

Brett AlegreWood: So you see it pretty much any topic, you can possibly imagine we can cover to not yet what i've done is i've chosen, you know the best dog and the things that I think are important to you guys probably invest with now.

Brett AlegreWood: The portfolio and I know the team have done exactly the same you know the other panelists.

Brett AlegreWood: And yeah, so it should be good if you've got any questions you've got the Q amp a you've got the chat you can also click raise your hand and we can actually have a discussion there for any questions got.

Brett AlegreWood: It so, and yet we want to give as much as flexible and has interactive but also you know really on point as well to go through so enough for me now all introduce my arm my panelists so we're basically Ryan dawn and British and obviously they'll work will work together.

Brett AlegreWood: British.

Brett AlegreWood: British thing 11 godspell is, I think, nowadays, because time you know I never had Gray hair when I first met him I don't know what happened.

Brett AlegreWood: But look, you know there's a lot of experience that and so he's going to be covering you know hotspots in the areas and so stuff along with ryan's going to go get more into depth into specific areas London so.

Brett AlegreWood: So yeah guys welcome.

Brett AlegreWood: And yet so we're going to want to do myself first and we'll do retention Ryan, and then dawn's going to finish off.

Brett AlegreWood: Oh no sorry I think ryan's coming off a look at.

Brett AlegreWood: That um I think often shopping.

Ryan Rahnavard: i've got two sections broke.

Brett AlegreWood: Your C section by section.

Brett AlegreWood: Right yeah so let's get started, without further ado, so.

Brett AlegreWood: yeah it's an interesting one, I have to say for property business because when you look at it, and when you consider it it's one of these things where.

Brett AlegreWood: Based on the amount of money circulating around and based on the fact that the severity of what we just came through you would think that.

Brett AlegreWood: we're going to have real problems, but the reality is we haven't Okay, and from what i'm what i'm seeing and what i'm looking at it's not really a case where we're actually.

Brett AlegreWood: You know, got major issues right now there is there is some, obviously, but I think you know it's amazing to sit here and really look at things.

Brett AlegreWood: objectively and moving from any angle, you know from, whether it be you know house price growth potential pastor income, all these sort of things.

Brett AlegreWood: Actually, are not that worried, you know now, there is the stock back, which is running away attention come down there was a few things like that, so you know they're always going to be present.

Brett AlegreWood: And I think one of the you know, one of the main things for me, is nothing look at sort of what's you know what's our our it's our core business.

Brett AlegreWood: Which is you build off them properly yeah right now there's some amazing things happening there, because there's lots of It really is a boom of building.

Brett AlegreWood: Okay, and that's partly what the government has done, you know that the budget was actually largely an event for property investors.

Brett AlegreWood: which actually was a good thing, because we've had so long just getting bombarded with new taxes, you regulation compliance, you know everything.

Brett AlegreWood: The only real new tax and we probably haven't got any international investors on board tonight.

Brett AlegreWood: Because it's probably too late for them, but the reality is is they, the one tax that has changed 2% standard, it has been added okay.

Brett AlegreWood: So if you're not if you're not resident, which means not typically how they define this you know 183 days, the year in the country that you know, is it.

Brett AlegreWood: yeah so it means you're paying 2% on top of if you buy a bicycle three cents that's 5% above the normal standard fee right so that's a bit of a community.

Brett AlegreWood: But you're finding a lot of the countries now are doing pretty much tax equalization so it doesn't matter where you buy.

Brett AlegreWood: you're going to get taxed, the same so really buying and i'll see you kale Singapore or Hong Kong these they're all doing these sort of things with it in adding these these non resident things like that so yeah that that is happening.

Brett AlegreWood: So yeah so it's interesting with London in London, one of these things where.

Brett AlegreWood: You know, London, as a region for me now is not.

Brett AlegreWood: Good so yeah London, you know worst performing region UK if you pay as possible, he dresses been here I think for this, not so much that the House possibly falling whether it's.

Brett AlegreWood: You know, London action, everything is cyclical and London, up until the 16th was really doing very well so actually.

Brett AlegreWood: it's not that much for me, you know to sit there and go yeah it is going to be the worst performing region.

Brett AlegreWood: Because the other side of it is what you've had is a lot of international which London is cool now it's a multicultural place.

Brett AlegreWood: You know, so a lot of those people have to go home.

Brett AlegreWood: You know so right now there's a really balanced, but we are seeing that coming back in the coming soon they're coming back lettings we're seeing that coming back in.

Brett AlegreWood: we're basically we're seeing for Rentals now and looking like that bottomed out and initial effects on the staff to come back.

Brett AlegreWood: You know, interesting because we had a double whammy in there, a lot of stock in London was sort of the parts yeah airbnb that's okay yeah and that was a thriving market.

Brett AlegreWood: realities that is not trying anymore it's a very, very disparate market now and so what's have a lot of stuff has been absorbed into the stocks their device.

Brett AlegreWood: And that scene Rentals but we've seen that one i'm out we're seeing prices so now as much as you see an article like that, and you go well, maybe we should be staying away from London.

Brett AlegreWood: Actually now's the time to be looking in London to get in at the bottom, you know and then watch it right up and certainly negotiate.

Brett AlegreWood: You know so yeah so that's important, I think, and I think you know it's all cyclical you know we've seen London do really, really well and there was a man doing for.

Brett AlegreWood: But it will come back there the fundamentals there, and in fact already hurting commercial property we're starting to see uptake.

Brett AlegreWood: You know a lot of fresh people moving into the city actually so there's a lot of stuff happening there's you know there's a there's a market happening, which is good.

Brett AlegreWood: I mentioned before you know what are the things which you know, for me, it will talk about starting off on a negative, you know these are positive and negative about math is London hasn't really taken off.

Brett AlegreWood: that's going to hold the average price down Okay, because London is such a huge value Okay, but the other side is this is, you know the non resident members so there's an extra 2% said, you know.

Brett AlegreWood: Besides, that the other thing that really holds London back right now, because London has so many high rises is this whole.

Brett AlegreWood: cladding issue yeah which is basically anything above 18 meters, you have to, and let me just explain, so if you haven't heard this person effective it's overrated means you didn't need to get an assessment.

Brett AlegreWood: And if that assessment says that you need to replace it cladding You then have to physically rip down the plating replace it OK now who's responsible for that.

Brett AlegreWood: And this is the question Okay, realistically, it was at the time that basically built the building Greg said, this is fine retrospectively now to a degree, they're saying well actually it doesn't matter that is that now it's not acceptable, because with with that it's not good.

Brett AlegreWood: So right now the landlord is responsible, however, the government has put aside money to save lashing we're gonna fund this and give effectively grants to landlords to get this replace okay so.

Brett AlegreWood: But I haven't given enough money they don't because they don't know how big the problem is and the reality is there's only you know there's not that people who can do these E w s one assessments to know what's going on now.

Brett AlegreWood: You must have a lot of I don't have any hibernating leaders, which is great, which means you can transact there's a lot of property in London, that is, about angels, and because that's about 80 meters.

Brett AlegreWood: yeah until you get that aws aws one clear yeah the certificate, you can get a mortgage on the property which means.

Brett AlegreWood: If you want to sell it you're going to drop significant money you know and i've heard of 60 grand 100 grand 20 grand off the price to get something so.

Brett AlegreWood: yeah so it's a significant drag on the London economy on the long and probably not and the reality is it's not solved yet.

Brett AlegreWood: Part of me thinks that what the government's doing is the longer they can put it out there more land was that have met the bill and the less there will be, and obviously.

Brett AlegreWood: If they've been paying in two years time three years or five years time, you know the cost of that money is cheaper than today's money.

Brett AlegreWood: You know and that's the reality, so you know if we're talking about needed soothes that's pretty much it yeah.

Brett AlegreWood: we'll get into a few other things of potential, but you know he's talking about actual things yet London is not the worst performing region it hasn't totally picked up yet, but I think it's At bottom, or very near bottom.

Brett AlegreWood: And then you got the non resident landlord extra 2% which is going to slow it down a lot of non resident mammals, they buy in London, but also by in the automated as well.

Brett AlegreWood: yeah so that will be affected so that'll keep that you know if anything better maintenance and all right.

Brett AlegreWood: What else will know what is interesting is, if we look at the unemployment rates yeah it was previously for finance company 5% now actually 5% is a lot lower than was expected it was expected to go potentially 8% now the same market 6%.

Brett AlegreWood: But the reality is is actually if anything behind employment and is actually returning back to or or has almost like.

Brett AlegreWood: It depends, what happens over the next six months, and so with all government support it's hard to say well what's going to happen yeah it could go higher.

Brett AlegreWood: You know 6.5, which is what a prediction is, but obviously that's always a venn diagram so it could go higher than that gun on that.

Brett AlegreWood: I think that if you keep if they keep the economic activity happening, if you look at what other countries have done that have sold the code question.

Brett AlegreWood: Yet, whether it be live vaccine or good management, their policies have bounced back relatively quickly.

Brett AlegreWood: yeah and that's what most of the predictions are so you know from that perspective there's not too much important.

Brett AlegreWood: The other side is redundancies yeah and interesting people have redundancy side is that the redundancies actually aren't that bad either you know.

Brett AlegreWood: We will certainly talk about redundancies in in terms of how many per thousand employees, well, it was led point three and 13.3 then 14.2.

Brett AlegreWood: And then it dropped to a level yeah so after January, so this is before the budget before they extend the life for further six months that's what it was.

Brett AlegreWood: which actually is pretty big news, it means that we hadn't seen mass unemployment.

Brett AlegreWood: yeah, so there are two things to go back through my videos it's sort of the aspects of us had to watch out for to see, whereas you know what's going to happen because.

Brett AlegreWood: If the unemployment rate goes on, it takes about two years to actually bring back the economy and get that economic into the guy that kept the actual I mean.

Brett AlegreWood: 5% is actually quite reasonable for the long term average effect it's like the long term average was about 7.5 it's been coming down on us and being very low recently.

Brett AlegreWood: But 5% is nothing to be worried about now yeah there are people gonna say haha funny numbers, you know they've been fighting the books and the last one that always goes.

Brett AlegreWood: And there's no there's nothing to change that but you know realistically between those two things you know, things are looking pretty damn good.

Brett AlegreWood: yeah you add what was done in the budget anything, do you want to spend an hour at life gun watch my budget spatial we're actually live streamed it as it was happening.

Brett AlegreWood: And Ashley if anything was a pretty boring budget because there wasn't really anything that didn't really announce anything that was going to be negative.

Brett AlegreWood: To property investing.

Brett AlegreWood: So things are looking a lot better now expected.

Brett AlegreWood: You know it's interesting in 2021 I said, my house boss prediction was minus 3% drop you know I said look the range of experts minus 13 plus eight.

Brett AlegreWood: That was back in you know, so I think that was even before we met in winter, you know it's probably the starting at someone said, probably, I think, was July when I.

Brett AlegreWood: get them what's happened now actually you know that's probably going to end up being about 5% rise yeah.

Brett AlegreWood: It all depends on what happens to the back end of the year, you know, because my stamp duty and once furlough ends at it depends on how much.

Brett AlegreWood: Economic activity picks up and one of the things that's interesting and i'm willing to spend a bit of time on now, which is inflation.

Brett AlegreWood: Okay, so there's two things we really need to be aware of, so I talked about unemployment and redundancies okay they're kind of in check.

Brett AlegreWood: So you're seeing so walmart to them, you know the next speaker is around, I think the 23rd of April is next because.

Brett AlegreWood: The reality is i'm not expecting much of a change certainly until realistically probably will end up somewhere there where we might see some changes going for a long time, so in it.

Brett AlegreWood: The reality other side of it is this is that when you take inflation, and this is very crude get into more detail records we don't need to.

Brett AlegreWood: inflation and, if not effectively as long as you can have in as long as you have inflation it doesn't matter as much about the debt okay.

Brett AlegreWood: As long as you can have inflation, as long as you have the economic activity, so you'll watch economic activity which is GDP.

Brett AlegreWood: watch the inflation, which is CPI rp retail price index or consumer price index yeah and you know if we really doing Basic economics.

Brett AlegreWood: As long as inflation doesn't take off economic activity stalls that causes stagflation that's bad news yeah.

Brett AlegreWood: And really you know, then you end up with stagflation essentially deflation, which is not really what you want, and economies don't want it and to be fair, I don't see that happening.

Brett AlegreWood: Right now there's a number of reasons why we recommend some now, but basically This is good news okay that's good news because what actually we're going to get is inflation and that's a little bit predicted so actually we have a look here.

Brett AlegreWood: yeah, this is a band diagram with the car right, so you can see that red in the middle, there is effectively a 30% chance of that and there's another 30% chance.

Brett AlegreWood: Which is the next read either side, another 30% so realistically, you know we've got a effectively 60% or 30% chance in that little bit.

Brett AlegreWood: Which is you know mile three plus two, you know one minus yeah that's pretty much where you are running economy that's what we're aiming for, you know, plus minus 2% plus or minus 1%.

Brett AlegreWood: and actually that's you know pretty much with everything he got five down to minus minus two.

Brett AlegreWood: That you know that's that's a pretty good diagram you know and that goes down to 2024 so that's not.

Brett AlegreWood: Too much of the initiative so just had an answer I just had a question for a man colon so caught up if inflation creases What do you do different as an investor.

Brett AlegreWood: And nothing and probably do a little jeezy dance say you know i'm a happy camper the recent good as a property investor with this yeah if you've got money in the bank it's terrible because what it means is your money's worth less over time.

Brett AlegreWood: But if you have debt Okay, what happens now just mentioned this today I have 100,000 pounds debt Okay, but in 10 years time or 20 years time.

Brett AlegreWood: That hundred thousand dead let's pay interest on me I bet period that hundred thousand dead, rather than being a you know way yearly wage or to your wage actually probably the weekly wage.

Brett AlegreWood: yeah so it's easy to pay it off with future, and so this will govern students, they run a bit of inflation and by running a bit of inflation, with long term debt they don't pay the debt off until you know tomorrow's.

Brett AlegreWood: And that's the key there so there's actually not anything different, you have to do, except for us property investors.

Brett AlegreWood: deflation, is the worst because that means acid phase gone down for the dead staying the same so the acid base dropping.

Brett AlegreWood: The dead staying the same yeah that's bad news, it now, we didn't have that.

Brett AlegreWood: In the last 10 years when we had a security but we might as well happenings what we had was a scary.

Brett AlegreWood: Keeping the economic activity down and keeping everything just sluggish and terrible and that's why you saw as we come out of the global financial crisis.

Brett AlegreWood: prices drop they revalidated they changed the way their value that the number of things of that which actually is a lot of property prices dropped.

Brett AlegreWood: By 10 20% and they never recovered nothing come out of that nothing but if you were in the main cities major cities and London, then okay fine, but if you're in the suburbs.

Brett AlegreWood: suburbs, have done nothing until we started last year, when there was a little bit of a advanced encoded not much, then of course substantial income that goes in the signals and then since then, things have been decent.

Brett AlegreWood: But interestingly, and national come on the jumping ahead a couple of slides because one of the issues is this down valuation because what happens or.

Brett AlegreWood: Is that as much as we want the value be now give me an example, we had a proper, the other day hundred and 27 we put it on 427 got that got vader hubbard and.

Brett AlegreWood: And I think was 1700 and 10 hundred 10 put 127 got 137 often yeah you know it was gone from evaluation or an appraisal from stage to stage.

Brett AlegreWood: that's what should sell for didn't listen to that so that's I think it's worth this aren't 27 actually got offered over that at 130 so.

Brett AlegreWood: yeah and I think it was by hundreds engineer as well, but the reality was that was great he said what happened when it went to get evaluated go through it is that he was still thinking as well.

Brett AlegreWood: yeah, so this is one of the challenges right now is that we have this this valuation lag in the marketplace so even though there's all these great numbers being spoken about.

Brett AlegreWood: What we're finding is the bricks value with value it down not where the market has decided, I mean that's what I started property and mostly mortgages.

Brett AlegreWood: It was basically as long as there was a willing buyer willing seller through, and you know, independent of each other, you know.

Brett AlegreWood: You know, proper marketing plan lots of stuff then that was considered to be a market valuation.

Brett AlegreWood: Nowadays it's not like that there is a sort of three to six month lag, and so what we'll see is those valuations will take a bit longer to come through may catch up.

Brett AlegreWood: yeah so coming back to the inflation, so I think it's interesting because one of the things we are going to get you know, and this is the full Bank of England governor.

Brett AlegreWood: Lord King now okay just be Mervyn King he's been banking and government he's now going to become logging and so he is talking about inflation.

Brett AlegreWood: Because that is something that we are going to see now inflation is good for the economy, because it allows the government to pay off its debts Okay, so they can borrow more money.

Brett AlegreWood: and business that is being inflated and paid with future dollars or future pounds, you know it's it's not less away.

Brett AlegreWood: The other side of this, because actually the debt is staggering have been added now they've been born printing cash and Britain patch which, under normal circumstances, to be a real worried.

Brett AlegreWood: But his great thing is that because of interest rates being so low a lot of debt was financed back when has been able to be refinance at near zero.

Brett AlegreWood: which allows them to take a huge amount more over a long period of time, and so the actual effective, because if you think about this, if I borrow $100.

Brett AlegreWood: And that's it say 20% per month yeah ridiculous interest, but the reality is let's say 20% per month.

Brett AlegreWood: it's actually not the amount, the problem is the repayments the problem, whereas if I bought that same hundred 500 pounds.

Brett AlegreWood: and actually I bartered point 1% over 20 years, all of a sudden now my repayments going to be very time.

Brett AlegreWood: that's hugely affordable and if I put it over 20 years when i'm paying with future dollars that's where it all, you know the piece of the puzzle come together.

Brett AlegreWood: And this is the game maintenance like this is the game that they have mind.

Brett AlegreWood: And not just this government that all governments around the world, you know, the Americans have been printing money lots going on a fashion years.

Brett AlegreWood: You know they printed themselves out of the global financial crisis last time and that's exactly the continue to do, and I mean at an astounding rate of knots.

Brett AlegreWood: yeah yeah The one thing we'll do is if they put too much money compared to everyone else, obviously, their currency drops please get more inputs get more expensive than that.

Brett AlegreWood: But it's a global economy now you know it used to be, that what happened was we were all segregated so one person went down.

Brett AlegreWood: You know everyone else benefited from it, you know and it reset itself now economies all intermingled and mix them, you know the supply chains are global and things like that so.

Brett AlegreWood: You know it's very hard for any economy step out and really do something without the other ones getting involved or without with.

Brett AlegreWood: The reality is everybody's pretty much everybody's pretty stupid that's money for people that are our action, their economies and their currency to get a stronger for now.

Brett AlegreWood: But, yet you know so that that's sort of yeah I mean hopefully i'm not going over to be in everyone's head, you have any questions about that your comment and being happy to answer them.

Brett AlegreWood: But interestingly so we'll talk about inflation yeah so it does not huge inflation and one of the really easy wise I look at I look at a five year interest rates in your interest rate.

Brett AlegreWood: And I see what the differences and the difference any marginal that's a really quick really written away it's going straight on and you're massively yeah the other side of it is, is the.

Brett AlegreWood: GDP, so this is the office of budget responsibility GDP forecast and C minus 1.3 that we were the worst it of all economies in the G seven yeah.

Brett AlegreWood: But 5.5 bounce back if you think that we aim for 2% per year growth, and we expect to have five with five that's the economic activity kiki and.

Brett AlegreWood: that's because there's so much money floating around that's because we've already locked out and saving your money now the government wants to spend so 5.5 6.6 then that 2.311 said mark when so by 2023.

Brett AlegreWood: The predictions are that we're actually going to go back to effectively where we were yeah and.

Brett AlegreWood: I mean when you, these are these are very sort of broad based concepts, but.

Brett AlegreWood: This is why i'm excited now, this is why i'm so excited about the next 10 years because I think we've got a government who actually understand that and maybe not the government doesn't but you know I think actually vision those is good or he has some really good economic devices because.

Brett AlegreWood: i'd be doing these property investing you know, probably webinars and.

Brett AlegreWood: videos for years, and in order to take this out and because my economics training sales and marketing and then really for most governments and doing is not economics and politics.

Brett AlegreWood: But actually now i'm starting to see some politics, but the economics come back and that's important before me yeah.

Brett AlegreWood: The other side is and why I think they're doing a good job and actually understand what's going on is you know something you said was the reports.

Brett AlegreWood: You know what they're doing is everything has been centered around London too long.

Brett AlegreWood: yeah and you know London Birmingham Manchester maybe Liverpool, maybe leads, you know i've been getting you know quite a lot of attention, certainly from international investment, maybe, by putting these reports around all around the place, you know, the whole of effectively England.

Brett AlegreWood: You know what you're getting is a massive massive boost economies in that area and within transport links Eric that's good for everybody.

Brett AlegreWood: Okay, you know, and I think this is this is key, these are things you need from a government that people can do these B decisions.

Brett AlegreWood: and put the you know the resources beyond the funding behind them that are actually going drive forward the economy and know coming on brexit.

Brett AlegreWood: You know, which was you know, a massive excel harmon whether you liked it or not, it doesn't matter, this is exactly the sort of leadership we needed.

Brett AlegreWood: And we should have had it 10 years ago and we haven't had he's got yeah we've been stuffing around.

Brett AlegreWood: Politicians as they were it's good to see this in which means breaking up interestingly so just to sort of finish off and look it it's one of these interesting things where.

Brett AlegreWood: I watch out a little telltale signs Okay, one of the signs which i've just started notice is this merchant war one of worse than the material shortages yeah.

Brett AlegreWood: So you know i've built a few things in my time, you know i've got to experience and that sort of things and the interesting thing is with case is that what you have.

Brett AlegreWood: Is you have this thing where effectively.

Brett AlegreWood: you've got you know this.

Brett AlegreWood: fix what you do is, you have the confidence comes back developers start building out man yeah planning approvals all this stuff has to happen yeah and that started last year.

Brett AlegreWood: yeah short code got in the way, but now we're seeing is a lot of developers building a lot of property and really going through, because they've got confidence.

Brett AlegreWood: This is what when you start reading articles like this about building materials going short about Brits you know, having to be ordered seven months 12 months in advance.

Brett AlegreWood: about all these little things about the building materials about cost of materials going up that's the restart of the next site with you on.

Brett AlegreWood: So to me we've had the recession and now it's that the here all the right things inflation, all these things falling into place.

Brett AlegreWood: Where as long as the government doesn't sort of do a U turn and change boss or do any majorly stupid.

Brett AlegreWood: As it properly, this is it's bloody positive news it's good news, we can see his growth over the next 10 years not saying anything is because that's a foreign Africa rising.

Brett AlegreWood: But you know there's no reason why they should change and do it in 180 degrees, you know less Labor get into been on you know we've got four more years of least now this so.

Brett AlegreWood: that's already you know five years down the track, so action things things are looking pretty good you know, and you know i'm pretty confident that we can keep this going, you know, and for me that is key yeah.

Brett AlegreWood: So yeah guys that's that's sort of my take on things i'm pretty positive and that sounds pretty positive, but I think actually it is, and I think.

You know.

Brett AlegreWood: Look there's going to be needing the bits and pieces come out and this will slow down and speed up and there'll be regional differences and.

Brett AlegreWood: You have to look locally, where the property is probably not in that area but that's always the way, but overall, you know the the macro.

Brett AlegreWood: thing is looking pretty good so yeah guys Benson hopefully That gives you a really good out yes summary of where we're at where we're likely to go and so that's that's um you know me so aspartame, so he can do this now.

Brett AlegreWood: So I.

Just.

Brett AlegreWood: Whatever you want so maybe just introduce yourself to do that.

Ritesh Patel: yeah sure um so yeah thanks guys evening, and thank you for joining i'm retail director of a new home that glad fish been in the business since about 2009 now so as Brett said got the Gray hairs to show for it.

Ritesh Patel: Now, like i've been in 2009 innocence that i've been helping individual investors like yourself invest in property and build our portfolios over time my rose changed slightly, whereas now i'm looking after most of our London operation in defense of property sales and sourcing.

Ritesh Patel: So yeah I know a little bit about property.

Ritesh Patel: Over the next 1015 minutes we're going to cover off for you guys is the ripple effect Pentagon a little bit about the northern powerhouse.

Ritesh Patel: Manchester and Birmingham.

Ritesh Patel: And yes, i'm still harping on about them so.

Ritesh Patel: If you've heard me say that, before Manchester Birmingham yep it's still there it's not going anywhere so that's all I cover off with you over the next little 1015 minutes so let's.

Ritesh Patel: move on to the ripple effect Pentagon, so this is our property sourcing formula model that we use and and what we use it for is to.

Ritesh Patel: You know match up which areas, you should be investing in based on your personal situation and market conditions Okay, we use this to predict price growth based on the fundamentals.

Ritesh Patel: We look at things like data points you know we'll use our personal experience and do our own due diligence and research and the fundamentals and put that, all together, to pick out the most investable cities.

Ritesh Patel: And by doing this, what we're looking to do is stay ahead of the curve Okay, so you know, to hear the word regeneration a lot, you know.

Ritesh Patel: If because, by getting into regeneration areas and using this model, you know, we want to get into an area before the prices really start to OK.

Ritesh Patel: So the way we break it down as you've got London zone one into which is the first to start this is where the growth kicks off.

Ritesh Patel: That reaches a certain price point, and then you find the ripple effect means the growth starts going out towards zone, three, four and five.

Ritesh Patel: that's not everywhere, three, four and five, where the transport lines go out, you know where the fundamentals of good where there's regeneration going on and where developers.

Ritesh Patel: are creating an environment to draw population so specific areas enable the Community towns which technically 90 minutes away from London but closer the better, and then the major cities with universities, which is what i'm going to talk more about today with Manchester and Birmingham.

Ritesh Patel: i'm major towns with hundred K population plus that this is not something which we do a lot of to be fair.

Ritesh Patel: Because these are sort of areas where you know if you're off the capital appreciation and you're looking to really grow your money then there's the areas which probably will grow the least i'm not saying they will never growth, but they will grow very slowly, if at all.

Ritesh Patel: But if you haven't got the capitals are getting involved in any on the others.

Ritesh Patel: and your motivation is more cash flow, you know each from a pocket money in their benefits from the cash flow you're not too bothered about the growth, then they can still work again so that's the ripple effect Pentagon then.

Ritesh Patel: move powerhouse okay northern power initiative started by the government, back in 2015 George Osborne at the time.

Ritesh Patel: The purpose of it was during this powerhouse it's all about boosting the local economies in the north, by investing in skill set innovation transport culture.

Ritesh Patel: Science, you know all these things, and by devolving significant powers, you know to local governments and mad, so that the North, can make their own decisions.

Ritesh Patel: Okay, and the idea behind that is to do things quicker and do things in the interest of the north by their own leaders.

Ritesh Patel: Okay, the sort of areas which are mainly sort of target to the mission in one place like Manchester Liverpool.

Ritesh Patel: leads there's a few others, but these are some of the core sort of areas targeted.

Ritesh Patel: The you know the investment and the regeneration in the cities has already created opportunities for property investors who you know, have been making returns from it.

Ritesh Patel: And and and the main reason being the stronger local economies will lead to increase in property prices has in fact or electric property prices going up in these areas.

Ritesh Patel: And the effect of this will be so not only exclusively in the cities, but also in the surrounding areas because the idea is to sort of connect.

Ritesh Patel: A lot of these patients that with each other so that they can do business with each other, you know as well as connect up to Birmingham London and so forth in the future okay so.

Ritesh Patel: there's been a lot of talk about it and started in 2015 and we have certainly already seen the effect, you know from.

Ritesh Patel: The population in in Liverpool where you know we're talking about the job creation and Manchester and you know goods at good exports in Liverpool these.

Ritesh Patel: Data points you can get these data data from various sources, but the key for me, is there are trending in the right direction, and all this sort of stock is what leads to property prices going in an area.

Ritesh Patel: Okay, so Manchester get a poster child of the new arguably the capital and famous probably more for us to football clubs which.

Ritesh Patel: Not fan of myself but but anyway, that they are world renowned and people do recognize these mistakes by it.

Ritesh Patel: It is the largest city in the north, both based on five and population, you know it's.

Ritesh Patel: You know i'm not only that it's not just a local city, now it is you know, a walled city yeah Manchester is now well 50 and what I would point to is.

Ritesh Patel: One of the major investments are going on in Manchester in and around airport city for for anyone to know that you know you may know about it, if you don't.

Ritesh Patel: It you know they've injected so much money they were about 1 billion pounds worth of development value going on 5 million square foot on planning area.

Ritesh Patel: This all this area around the airport is solely focused on commercial property okay so we've got the Asian business Center that they're opening up that.

Ritesh Patel: you've got super sheds okay you've got hotels office spaces, so the idea is to make Manchester, a place where the world can come and do business okay so flying to Manchester.

Ritesh Patel: Airport you've got offices there you know you've got everything resources that you need to do what you gotta do.

Ritesh Patel: And you can get back out again something which has been happening in London forever, to be fair, but Manchester, you know what always wanted to put itself on that map and has okay so.

Ritesh Patel: that's the sort of stuff which shows us that the money being pumped into that okay what they started also do is retain and they're skilled and graduate population.

Ritesh Patel: There was a time in the past, where people you know Manchester, you know great universities, people who can study they get their qualifications get their degrees getting their masters.

Ritesh Patel: And then come back to London, because it was seeing that London with the place where they're going to get the good job good job you know and making money, however, this has changed the last.

Ritesh Patel: Since $2,015 and they all stopped trying to retain their skill population, and this is leading to an increase demand for new build accommodation.

Ritesh Patel: And I know there's been a lot of talk about our city centers going to be the place, you know everyone's leaving the city and always will be in the future anymore.

Ritesh Patel: And, and as much as there might be some of that and and some people move away from cities.

Ritesh Patel: The city Center is going nowhere because we've got to look at it you've got the younger population who value lifestyle and careers.

Ritesh Patel: More so than anything else Okay, they want to be near your finances your restaurants or bars the office is closed by.

Ritesh Patel: And for this reason, what you will find is as thing is up now, and people start you know thinking more about normality, the city centers will be packed again.

Ritesh Patel: Okay i'm property prices and rent if they already haven't they will no doubt so coming back here Okay, so you know that is a key points remember don't get too.

Ritesh Patel: bogged down with the end of the city Center not happening.

Ritesh Patel: And you look at Manchester, you know from the employment perspective, you know you've got 80% of footsie 100 companies have a presence there.

Ritesh Patel: But I might not be their main office you know the shop front is often London Okay, but your second and third offices there okay so you've already got good businesses, which has been causing the growth in renton prices over the last five years.

Ritesh Patel: And you've got a digital sector green technology, you know you've got established brands like Google Amazon IBM they've got offices there, but you also got startups homegrown unicorns you know.

Ritesh Patel: So for me as a property investor myself, you know I always ask the question it's all good at that, in the area is.

Ritesh Patel: got everything now, but where is it heading, you know, am I in an area where the employment and and what it what the economy is served by is a dying set up because, if it is.

Ritesh Patel: The very quickly i'm going to start switching off, you know I want to see where where the growth is coming in the next 510 15 years.

Ritesh Patel: and technology being a bit big part of world economy, certainly in the UK and Manchester being such a big player in it.

Ritesh Patel: You know, tells me that this is not going nowhere is sort of the interstate.

Ritesh Patel: Okay, so you've got the established companies you've got a green technology Center okay so hey just to transport network, I mean.

Ritesh Patel: Phase two, which is set to join Manchester not signed off yet, and yet you can argue, what if it doesn't get find off we'll see, I think it makes perfect sense.

Ritesh Patel: For the government to carry on and sign it off, you know and that'll add another dimension in itself, but even if it doesn't get signed off.

Ritesh Patel: manchester's got so much going on within his own economy, you know that it's not going to be it's not going to break it, you know, like I said well city now.

Ritesh Patel: let's implement within population growth, keeping graduate so it's pretty much here to stay in terms of areas of Manchester.

Ritesh Patel: Look, I mean there's quite a few areas, you can look at I mean a couple of years i'd like to point out, you know, beans gate northern quarter, which are sort of more vibrant in the city Center.

Ritesh Patel: We actually got involved in the northern culture about five years ago.

Ritesh Patel: Where clients are buying buying buying at prices somewhere in the 171 at Meijer finish, to start with you try and get into the northern quarter now you're looking 200 K and north.

Ritesh Patel: Okay, so you go it's already happened doesn't mean it's about it's by far expect lower yields.

Ritesh Patel: hold the property longer, and you will sort of pay a premium to be in the city like you will in any city okay.

Ritesh Patel: The area that excites me from an investment perspective, the two the two areas, I suppose, right now, other regeneration areas, so these areas which are.

Ritesh Patel: up and coming still so not really made article, but a lot going on to make them into the ready made article.

Ritesh Patel: The first one is a concert film OK cancel field is the doorstep of the city and a lot of development and change happening that.

Ritesh Patel: lower the top developers of land bank probably a while back some of them because they sort of.

Ritesh Patel: A general graphical positioning or there and new at some point battle is the place where prices go, so they will started building there.

Ritesh Patel: And it's walking distance to a lot of the city fundamentals you got you got that Metrolink there's if you don't want to walk you've got that connection there.

Ritesh Patel: But they still a price point where you'll find your you're getting in fairly early and as the ripple effect comes out of the city, the prices will start growing quicker okay.

Ritesh Patel: you've got Old Trafford SOFA keys so for keys is obviously the media, the media city media district BBC ITV Virgin, you know, those of you that.

Ritesh Patel: An Old Trafford ultras is an interesting one, because if you actually look at Old Trafford it's you know it needs a lot of work, you know it's what I call pretty shitty right now, you know.

Ritesh Patel: With all the development going on there, and if you look at all the planning Commission that's going in there, and you look at the fact that the.

Ritesh Patel: tram extension which has been created, which will connect Old Trafford both to the city of Manchester but also then to media city and that side as well as the shopping centers and everything.

Ritesh Patel: That to me is a very strategic investment because you're there you're going to buy a lot lower than the city, which means your you will be slightly higher okay.

Ritesh Patel: And you've got the scope for that regeneration capital growth, which often means you can be normal market conditions.

Ritesh Patel: yeah you gotta you gotta take the risk of knowing okay it's a region area is still going to turn into what we wanted to, but if you're willing to take that risk, then that is where there is certainly opportunity.

Ritesh Patel: Good.

Ritesh Patel: So Birmingham.

Ritesh Patel: UK UK is second capital, they say, well, again.

Ritesh Patel: The fundamentals, the Birmingham are similar to Manchester and both Manchester and Birmingham the scene i've effectively micro versions of London being created.

Ritesh Patel: I see Birmingham is somewhere, which has always been hiding a little bit in the shadow of Manchester when it comes to property investment.

Ritesh Patel: And the main reason that for that, for me, is it's just simply not marketed as well as Manchester, you know, and I say this because.

Ritesh Patel: You know I speak to clients, you know every day in the UK Singapore Hong Kong Middle East, and when we talk about these cities, and you know when I say Manchester a little bit seem to sort of be like Oh yes, straight away, I mean I Manchester probably down to the football team.

Ritesh Patel: And then, when I say Birmingham they sort of out of it but.

Ritesh Patel: Not as much or not, as excited and up to sort of teach them and talk to them about it in a bit more detail, and that is because it hasn't be marketable it's been living in the shower little bit, but what I see happening there.

Ritesh Patel: it's a bit of a dark horse and that's going to change OK, I see that changing and the four key points which I see driving the change is.

Ritesh Patel: The relocation of big businesses, which has already started okay number one in the UK for new startups okay for this new job new business has been created.

Ritesh Patel: hey just to one yeah, which is the biggest transport project since then crucial in London.

Ritesh Patel: For those of you are new to it just to is going to connect pies me train line connecting London directly into Birmingham phase one okay.

Ritesh Patel: And the big city plan which we'll talk about a little bit more.

Ritesh Patel: In numbers, when you look at you know the hundred and 20 billion being pumped in population, you know you look at all the data highest house price past price growth.

Ritesh Patel: And the demand for new homes, you know we sort of started moody's data again let's forget the numbers.

Ritesh Patel: But it's all trending the right way that's what i'm interested in, you know it's it's all showing up there's also more money more jobs, more businesses which all that all falls on more demand for property which equals price growth and rental work OK.

Ritesh Patel: So the Birmingham.

Ritesh Patel: If other things like I said which, I am very much backing and the dark horse to come come ahead now.

Ritesh Patel: One of the reasons, the big city plan Okay, the big city plan, so the core of Birmingham, as you can see it here.

Ritesh Patel: is very small it's been one of the things that has helped running and back so as much as it's the biggest city second biggest city.

Ritesh Patel: Back to central call whether businesses are where the bar bar or restaurant, but there there's all those things where money is transacted made the economy really grows have been so.

Ritesh Patel: But the big city planner Birmingham started about 10 years ago and set to go another 10 years is to increase that call by about 25% okay.

Ritesh Patel: The idea is to create five to seven districts Okay, a couple of the more famous ones which you people may be aware of you've got a big bus.

Ritesh Patel: Which is going to be this sort of double venue this shortage, you know design around tech and their creative hub and you've got the jewelry quarter, which is again very central and.

Ritesh Patel: A long development has happened there already that produces about 40% of the jewelry made in the UK you've got the Chinese quarter, which is already quite established as well, entertainment.

Ritesh Patel: Businesses and offices down there, and you know all the all these things, these are all established and part of that core, big C corp rolling out okay.

Ritesh Patel: And anyway, he has two phase one nice be trained connection, which I spoke about, and we should go further increase connectivity to London.

Ritesh Patel: Which means population moving from A to B that always creates more demand and growth and and if any of you have followed what happened with crossroads, and the reason I say that is because.

Ritesh Patel: The price effect of people who bought property anywhere near crossroad stations in London.

Ritesh Patel: And held them pretty much doubled their properties over a 78 year period is at the right time.

Ritesh Patel: Okay it's not double you know you certainly would have made a lot of growth Okay, and the crossrail paid a big impact and that's what creating trans transport like this stuff Okay, so you know, keep an eye on that.

Ritesh Patel: you've got the ages to timings there and I want to pay some attention to us at the moment, if you're going to be in London and without a chance to it's about an hour 25 minutes it's going to knock it down to 49 when it started stretching out to Manchester phase 232 minutes 40.

Ritesh Patel: Sheffield 4857 years it's really going to connect everything up together a Birmingham is signed and sealed and happening okay so there's no risk say that you are not you know it's happening OK.

Ritesh Patel: So, moving on so you know if you know i've said, obviously regeneration regeneration regeneration and what this slide has.

Ritesh Patel: demonstrated some of the impact of regeneration, so what we've got is we've got Manchester house prices and burning and house prices Okay, now we look at this grubin want to pay attention to.

Ritesh Patel: Some of the key points when you look at 2008 2009 global financial crisis, you know both any leveled out okay and.

Ritesh Patel: Because it seems to say that the modern cities did feel the impact more than the impact of fell in London and this out Okay, but then.

Ritesh Patel: They stayed pretty flat so as London would have flown up 2010 11 I think it sort of kick back and things started flying this is these tests done nothing Okay, then we got to that.

Ritesh Patel: yeah and northern northern northern.

Ritesh Patel: part time came into play, and what are some things that know the regeneration about the big 60 pounds started getting bigger and bigger and bigger I just to started getting bigger and bigger and bigger to talk.

Ritesh Patel: And all of a sudden, what do you see prices get both areas started going from 2015 surprisingly enough even sort of brexit as much as it curb things a little bit.

Ritesh Patel: It didn't send it back down again so they were pretty robust through brexit demand stayed pretty good Okay, and in Canada and Manchester, you know as long as he had this sort of big output all right here, we can see.

Ritesh Patel: The burning of masculine or had it and.

Ritesh Patel: i'm going to sort of put myself on the line here and say i'm pretty sure that once a chest to gets closer.

Ritesh Patel: That sort of shadow that but matt Birmingham have been living in a mansion doffing it will change, and I think in fact i'm pretty sure Birmingham will have to have that show up in price, along with everything that's going on, but I hate just to will be the driver.

Okay.

Ritesh Patel: Good.

Ritesh Patel: So that's that you know the impact, I suppose.

Ritesh Patel: of regeneration so moving on.

Ritesh Patel: But I mean, which is the next district, the next hot spot that we should be looking at in Birmingham okay so.

Ritesh Patel: What i'm recommending clients, the project we've taken on very recently, is to get involved in concord, which is very much part of the big city plan.

Ritesh Patel: Okay, and the project is snow he'll walk from Berkeley home okay it's interesting, the first project that barking homes are doing.

Ritesh Patel: outside of London and the South, so this is a developer, who has traditionally chosen because let's face it Barclay homes have the capacity, the money to go and buy land.

Ritesh Patel: in Manchester and Liverpool leads, so if they want to you know they can, but this is the first time they've chosen to step outside of London.

Ritesh Patel: And Birmingham is the destination and chosen they've actually set up a brand new division, who St Joseph.

Ritesh Patel: And and they've got a 20 year plan 20 year commitment to build in the Midlands and Birmingham okay.

Ritesh Patel: And as an interesting conversation with one of the directors that because the question I asked is why Birmingham, why not Manchester why don't need to I know anywhere else.

Ritesh Patel: And they take was very much as as much as those cities, yet you know the good, and you know there's things happening there with your Birmingham is best place.

Ritesh Patel: to benefit from the economic output that comes out of London Okay, and they feel that when they just to you're almost going to be starting to talk about Birmingham and commute to go to London.

Ritesh Patel: OK, so the sharing you know businesses moving you know employees moving and that later was going to drive demand for high quality and accommodation, which you know.

Ritesh Patel: London developments is taken as a granted for standard is granted that will now become a requirement in Birmingham, based on the demographics and their research so for me.

Ritesh Patel: When a developer like blocking and backseat and puts money into an area creates division in an area then for me that that's pretty exciting, you know, and you can't go too far wrong by.

Ritesh Patel: jumping jumping on the back, I suppose, what i'm saying Okay, and so the development of snow he'll walk if you look at it, if positioning is just outside the city okay so.

Ritesh Patel: where's concourses relatively untouched from a residential perspective, and this is the first residential development being built in Eurovision should have been built.

Ritesh Patel: To Cancun is walking distance from all your city fundamentals, so you got the call more business district vt K P amp G H two offices 4000 star 1300 1000.

Ritesh Patel: you've got paradise circle, another major investor business hub 15 minute walk either me see hsbc again.

Ritesh Patel: brinley paste slightly longer 20 minute walk don't CHA Deloitte there.

Ritesh Patel: And I heard there's more to follow not gonna say any names don't get myself into trouble i've been told.

Ritesh Patel: By saying these names, but there is more to follow okay bigger businesses opening second, third offices here Okay, and all this needs to demand for good quality property.

Ritesh Patel: Okay, and this development is fairly unique in the sense it is pretty much in my view, the best development of Birmingham and we've sort of view.

Ritesh Patel: it's got all the facilities that you know the modern day invested the modern day tenant is looking for.

Ritesh Patel: it's different it's not run of the mill the developer, has put a lot of time and money into design so it's not just four or five buildings of apartments will come up next to each other you've got a lot of green space spelt along the canal.

Ritesh Patel: you've got business facilities you've got gymnasiums in there, and so you know if we look at this new work home balance on the whole work life.

Ritesh Patel: And there are more people who tend to work from home one or two days a week, then it's set up for it so for me that's very important because, again when it comes to renting it out when it comes to setting in the future.

Ritesh Patel: is set up for someone to want to buy it as well, and someone to want to consistently mentor.

Ritesh Patel: Okay, so look, if you want to know more about it, and he will go to the detail of numbers and stuff then yeah we can certainly have a chat about it, I mean today was just to give you a bit of a feel and touch on it um.

Ritesh Patel: But yeah so Birmingham Manchester northern powerhouse me there's going to be other patients to invest in i'm not saying only exclusive to these pages, but they're still there and i'm still the one from the CAP i'm thinking I.

Brett AlegreWood: Was yeah cool so we'll just run straight into Brian so um yeah maybe introduce yourself to just before we get into it.

So.

Ryan Rahnavard: So hi guys i'm Brian i'm one of the associate directors i've been in the business since 2012 was that started 2012 I joined seems like a long time ago my hair keeps getting further and further back, but.

Ryan Rahnavard: I guess, I guess, it is, it is what happens when you when you work in the game of property.

Ryan Rahnavard: That I help investors in building their long term portfolio i've done for a number of years i've now just we've started another part of the business, which is called black fish connect.

Ryan Rahnavard: That we're going to do a lot of our development stuff and a lot of our existing clients who are you.

Ryan Rahnavard: you've done a lot of the traditional things and want to take their portfolio to the next stage and go into a little bit more exciting stuff getting a bit more sort of hands on with things.

Ryan Rahnavard: We offer them that opportunity to get into refill opportunity teacher most actual full development development finance various range of stuff but obviously it's it's something which.

Ryan Rahnavard: slightly higher risk than your been other investments, but a lot more exciting and potential for that, for the higher returns on there as well, what i'm going to talk to you guys today about.

Ryan Rahnavard: Over the next 10 to 15 minutes is coming to London or just London.

Ryan Rahnavard: So we're talking about really why do you invest in London, the reasons behind it.

Ryan Rahnavard: Preserving and growing your wealth, while and and and which sort of areas, we want to invest in like London as Brett said earlier on in the.

Ryan Rahnavard: Year and you're hearing and get a lot in the news, a lot of people have been taken a short term view on London.

Ryan Rahnavard: What i'm really here to do is to remind everyone that London is about the long term play, do you know, whenever whenever you invest in London and places like London and it's only sort of.

Ryan Rahnavard: I would only put a couple of other places on the same power as London that would be New York and Hong Kong when you go into these sort of markets you've got to play that long term game.

Ryan Rahnavard: And it's kind of like you know this this.

Ryan Rahnavard: Negative talk, if you like, around London is sort of you know I can compare it to the US dollar you know a lot of people will talk it down and say how it's finished it's done.

Ryan Rahnavard: Until it comes back and slaps everyone in the face and and reminds them what an absolute force it is.

Ryan Rahnavard: And how it's going to absolutely sort of rocket all of a sudden and moving upward direction.

Ryan Rahnavard: It still has some of the best fundamentals in the world, the shops, the schools, the transport, the big business, the huge amount of investment that goes into London is still there.

Ryan Rahnavard: Whilst there has been a big migration out of London, from a particular segment of the population.

Ryan Rahnavard: In the year for mid 2019 year to date London has had a population growth, estimated at net 54,000 you know that's still a lot of people come in and in just one year and considering.

Ryan Rahnavard: You know from from 2019 to to now, you know we're going through Colbert and we're still have population growth in London.

Ryan Rahnavard: Which is crazy to think about, but it has happened, I think, ever since the brexit vote we've had the highest number of Europeans actually migrate back to London as well.

Ryan Rahnavard: As somewhere to work to live to get better opportunity for their longer term future okay.

Ryan Rahnavard: And what we've had with London is historically you've had a lot of international investors just invest here, especially from Hong Kong, they would invest in London.

Ryan Rahnavard: wait a few years, sell their asset on liquidate and take their money back, but now, with everything that's going on in Hong Kong what they're actually doing is they're looking at London as a place, they want to move to.

Ryan Rahnavard: and live so when they're investing they're investing for their own long term future as well.

Ryan Rahnavard: Which is great for us as property investors, because it's going to mean one of two things.

Ryan Rahnavard: When you've got a high population growth from the international market, your rental market is going to pick up and it's going to go up but also.

Ryan Rahnavard: With the way brexit is set up with the migration being only high skilled workers and workers, we actually need in the UK.

Ryan Rahnavard: What that is going to do is those workers are also going to invest their own capital that they get from their employment back into the UK market back into the London market.

Ryan Rahnavard: Because they now live here and they know it, they understand it, they gain confidence and they want to actually invest in these sort of areas so that's where you're going to see your next really boost that you saw in sort of 2012 2013 that big.

Ryan Rahnavard: jump up in prices OK, but so so what i'm saying here is London is here to serve the entire world, not just the UK okay and that's what you're investing in.

Ryan Rahnavard: However, in saying that it is no longer a place where you can just go and invest anywhere and expect to get good returns.

Ryan Rahnavard: Of course, if you invest in it and hold it long enough, you will always see big growth if we look at the central areas where you've got.

Ryan Rahnavard: You know these these sort of the darker bits here, which are, the more affluent areas these areas.

Ryan Rahnavard: are ones which have had a huge amount of growth over the past few years, and in terms of an area if you're going to go and invest in there.

Ryan Rahnavard: You should have very deep pockets and be able to sort of withstand negative cash flow market is sort of all of a sudden dropping by 510 15% and you can wear that pain.

Ryan Rahnavard: If you're not in that boat, then you don't want to sort of focus on those you've got to look at specific areas.

Ryan Rahnavard: To look at and the main focus for us is to look in these outer skirts and find little gems of areas pockets, that we can go in and we can see big value.

Ryan Rahnavard: for investors and you can get in at a at a softer price point.

Ryan Rahnavard: But because you have areas in and around you at a much higher price point you'll start to see your property go up in value, because what will naturally happen.

Ryan Rahnavard: Is all the areas in London will start increasing but the outskirts because it's more affordable, a lot more people will go and purchase there, so your percentage growth will be slightly higher okay.

Ryan Rahnavard: Now I want to talk about the impact of regeneration again like I said earlier on the impact of regeneration.

Ryan Rahnavard: Is massive across the whole of the UK wherever it's a you know you have big regeneration plans you start seeing property prices, increasing.

Ryan Rahnavard: i'm going to talk about two of our biggest and most historic regeneration projects, one being Royal arsenal riverside, which is in College and the other one being kid brooke village.

Ryan Rahnavard: In Granite so the both in the rural bar of Greenwich, and the reason why I want to talk about these days, because these two areas.

Ryan Rahnavard: were probably two of the worst areas in London at the time, you know kid brooke farrier states, no one dared step inside that area, you know, unless you, you are carrying a couple of guns and a couple of.

Ryan Rahnavard: bulletproof vests you know you did not want to step there, but what barkley have done is they've got the whole entire area flattened everything down and started rebuilding and regenerating the area.

Ryan Rahnavard: And as a percentage growth it saw a higher percentage growth than some of the central areas of London, why because they started to change the demographic they started to change the.

Ryan Rahnavard: type of people that would want to live there, you know young professional started.

Ryan Rahnavard: Working and started wanting to live there, because what they've done is they didn't just go and build a concrete jungle they started to build a Community they put things like farmers market in there, they put things you know, schools, they put dentist.

Ryan Rahnavard: wide range of stuff gym cinemas all the different types of things that you want to see in a new area and with the way the new world is going, you know that's what you the young population wants to look for so.

Ryan Rahnavard: When we talk about a particular area, the gem is always to look at something that is not traditionally known as the hotspot you know.

Ryan Rahnavard: Anyone in a good market can go and buy in kensington and say oh Look how much money, I made but it takes a real investor to take a look at something that that.

Ryan Rahnavard: looks pretty dull right now, but can see the vision and have the vision and can see it grow, and this is what regeneration gives you.

Ryan Rahnavard: Okay So where are the opportunities across London now we're focusing on two main areas.

Ryan Rahnavard: barking and Southall these are two areas that we're mainly focusing on because we find the areas i've got a huge amount of potential Sir.

Ryan Rahnavard: huge amount of potential as places that you want to go and invest your your money and so ultimately embarking.

Ryan Rahnavard: The London bar is in the middle of a regeneration project seeing a creation of 20,000 new jobs and 50,000 new homes over the next two decades it's located in East London zone for.

Ryan Rahnavard: barking provides affordable living for commuters for easy access to Canary Wharf and City of London.

Ryan Rahnavard: The gross values of the current properties is 36% below the London average prices now that's a huge amount of gains for you to take advantage of as an investor.

Ryan Rahnavard: By going into this sort of area where you know all the other areas around us 36% higher.

Ryan Rahnavard: just half of that growth, you know means a lot of money made in property you got other projects like the dragon and film studios which construction started this year.

Ryan Rahnavard: that's 1200 jobs being brought in as Brett said earlier, the free ports come in, and this is one of the areas with the free ports which special.

Ryan Rahnavard: Economic trading zone where normal customs and taxes do not do not apply.

Ryan Rahnavard: This is going to create 25,000 new jobs yeah the level of development in bargain barking and dagenham, however, has not kept up with the demand that there is for for property in 2020 only 57% of new homes are quite work completed.

Ryan Rahnavard: And that's why we're focusing on this and the project, we have taken on I couldn't believe it when I saw the prices, you know, the last time I saw.

Ryan Rahnavard: A two bedroom property sub 400,000 pounds not saying SUP half a million sub 400,000 pounds yeah that's huge for a one bedroom in kid brooke village right now is 450,000 pounds you're going to get a to better sub 400 you know this is huge in property terms for London.

Ryan Rahnavard: that's blocking the next stage, the next area is South Pole, as I said, now, this is a bit of a west London gym because.

Ryan Rahnavard: And and people who knows Auckland sorry South hall will probably say what's he talking about, but it really is a gem because.

Ryan Rahnavard: Ealing it's in the borrowed healing healing is a very affluent area how the south Pole, not so much, but it has a huge amount of money being invested into it.

Ryan Rahnavard: It was about a watered 4.4 million pounds by the mayor's regeneration fund matched by 1.4 million by the evening Council and 1.9 million from the transport for London okay this investment will support the shopping of Southall.

Ryan Rahnavard: The shaping of Southall regeneration project which will bring new shops into the area and new sort of high street and also the arrival of crossrail.

Ryan Rahnavard: retest spoke about hs to and the big impact that is going to have on the property prices in Birmingham crossrail has already had a huge impact on a lot of areas across London.

Ryan Rahnavard: But it hasn't quite kicked off in south or just yet, because the station isn't quite ready yeah the project that we are involved in here it's with Barclay homes again.

Ryan Rahnavard: The there are a lot of developers that will go into this area nap already gone into this area the likes of your red robe our homes they've already gone into this area as well, but what they've done is they've just put up a couple of building blocks.

Ryan Rahnavard: Effectively, a concrete building what Barclay home have done is they've gone in and they're creating a Community you know it's a 20 year project that they are working on it's not only housing they're bringing in shops cinemas.

Ryan Rahnavard: About for cafes running tracks football pitches Community centers a wide range of stuff to create a whole community for the area.

Ryan Rahnavard: And you might look at that and think oh that's just fancy stuff being put in, but it's absolutely not and it's even more important for those sort of stuff because.

Ryan Rahnavard: Post brexit sorry post Colbert should I say.

Ryan Rahnavard: The postcode, the world was sort of going into from a from a work point of view it is going to, I feel, in that, and I think a lot of people follow this opinion as well that we're going to go into a much more.

Ryan Rahnavard: Flexible working environment where you'll be working half in the office half from home and so on and so forth, however, the problem with working from home is you can never distinguish when.

Ryan Rahnavard: Work finishes and life begins it all seems to roll into one and you end up starting work at 8am and finishing work at.

Ryan Rahnavard: Because you just stuck around a computer, but what these communities will bring because they are going to bring in shared office spaces, where like kind of we work sort of hot desk areas.

Ryan Rahnavard: It allows young working professionals to stay within their communities, but still come outside of their apartment and go into one of these cafes go into one of these, we workstations go into one of the Community centers sit there connect to.

Ryan Rahnavard: wi fi spot and start doing their work from there.

Ryan Rahnavard: And we're in and around them they've got the shops that they require they've got the you know the supermarkets that they require and they've got the entertainment that they require, so it provides a lifestyle for them.

Ryan Rahnavard: And the world that we are entering into is one which a lot lot of people are.

Ryan Rahnavard: more focused on lifestyle and they're happy to pay that little bit more in rent that little bit more in property price to be within a community and to be part of a development that's going to deliver that Community for them.

Ryan Rahnavard: So this is, these are the two areas that we're focusing on in London and what I would say to you guys.

Ryan Rahnavard: Is don't take your eye off London if you've got the capital that it's required and you do have the long term vision than it is one that you definitely want to step into as an investment So what are the next steps from here.

Ryan Rahnavard: The next steps from here, but finally management structure strategy and plan your goal and how to get there okay.

Ryan Rahnavard: Next Steps it's not one size fits all i'm talking London, you know Brett was saying, London prices drop in.

Ryan Rahnavard: Return she's talking about Birmingham Manchester we've got a couple of guys in the office who are.

Ryan Rahnavard: Really into the the freehold houses in the major cities in the in the major towns so there's different products for different types of clients it all depends on your lifestyle and what you want to achieve in where you are in your life cycle.

Ryan Rahnavard: You know if you're someone who's at the beginning, then you've got to take a different type of risk if you're someone who's coming towards the end.

Ryan Rahnavard: You know you've got you've got to take on a different type of risk and what you want to do at this stage now is you want to get in touch with us speak to the portfolio manager speak to one of the senior directors put together a strategy.

Ryan Rahnavard: And the strategy, the strategy is quite simple to establish a direction you want to take your portfolio and we will help you create that and will create the different options around that strategy.

Ryan Rahnavard: Will prioritize and decide which type of properties to go for first and then we will hold your hand through the execution of the out of the entire plan.

Ryan Rahnavard: And if you are truly motivated to get into property and get things going, and you have a long term vision.

Ryan Rahnavard: With property it's not a quick win it's not a quick fix it's not a get rich quick never is the companies that speak about getting rich quick and quit your job today and you'll be a millionaire by tomorrow they don't know what they're talking about.

Ryan Rahnavard: yeah they do not know what they're talking about.

Ryan Rahnavard: So what you want to really do.

Ryan Rahnavard: Is you want to focus on.

Ryan Rahnavard: putting together a plan and executing that plan find a company that you trust and get going that's it for me thanks guys if there's any questions, please do not hesitate to ask.

Brett AlegreWood: And I think I think that it's interesting one, with the strategy side because I think we've got a lot of our existing clients here.

Brett AlegreWood: and actually I noticed this there's quite a few that have been with us for 10 years even probably 15 years.

Brett AlegreWood: One or two there, so I think it's quite interesting with that because, even if you've got an existing strategy, even if we had property 15 years ago, maybe.

Brett AlegreWood: now's the time to be actually resetting that portfolio so it's not just about getting into property for those new guys.

Brett AlegreWood: You know just joined us, but actually the guys that have been around for a while, you know get it get a plan and sit down with us and go right where did we get to you know we have we got to let's have a review of that portfolio.

Brett AlegreWood: You know where can we realistically move to it's interesting actually speaking to some of our clients who are now retired.

Brett AlegreWood: I was just chatting to one literally before we come on five minutes before we go on and on, you know he had seven properties.

Brett AlegreWood: he's never five properties and actually he's retired and now he's he's happy with those five is just gonna keep keep being come from.

Brett AlegreWood: And where possible kids so wherever you are at and that's why it's not a one size fits all you know we're going to adjust that.

Brett AlegreWood: OK so i'll bring dawn on and we'll get on to that and then we're going to get into some.

Brett AlegreWood: Some questions as it goes, we haven't been saying much on the Q amp a have you guys been engrossed in what we've been saying, but feel free to to jump in and do that, so let me share obvious and so yeah so jumping so.

Brett AlegreWood: Is that it that is so without further ado dawn you can introduce yourself and we'll get started.

Dawn Parker: I so yeah i'm dawn director of business development for an easy track work alongside the goldfish guys as well.

Dawn Parker: The work for the company many years had a couple years out and came back, but interesting what Brett was saying, because some.

Dawn Parker: Some clients i've been speaking to you recently helping them with one or two issues, our clients i've been around for a long time.

Dawn Parker: And I recognize the name and they kind of remember who, who I am too so it's quite quite enlightening to think that people will stay with us and.

Dawn Parker: yeah not a nice company to come back to okay so we'll just talk a little bit about 2021 and attendance trends and the demand throughout a headline that says the demand throughout 2020 was an all time high it's quite.

Dawn Parker: it's quite some.

Dawn Parker: Stopping headline with with the pandemic and everything else that we've had, and this, it looks like it's going to be set to continue throughout 2021 as well.

Dawn Parker: And it just may not tenants have got a lot of choice and they are offering lower at the moment and they've got the PIC of the properties out there they're looking for the properties that are kept in the best condition.

Dawn Parker: And, and they really do think they got the choice so we've seen this before in the market we've seen that it swings towards attendance kind of environment and then eventually it comes back towards the landlords.

Dawn Parker: So they're looking for the best value for the money and they're requesting redecoration a very early doors when they look at a property and furniture is becoming all more important to them as well.

Dawn Parker: And it does mean that when a tenant shows an interest in the property and I know it has to be really quick off the mark.

Dawn Parker: So the guys here we're focused on getting those offers in i'm getting back to the people getting the referencing done and moving things along as quickly as possible and we don't want to be losing good tenants and.

Dawn Parker: I say there is a lot of properties out there i'm quite interested in the just did a little bit of research and up to the survey, which was done by by to let market lenders of 2000 private renters.

Dawn Parker: And what they said was that one of the highest sort of most desirable qualities, they want is a pet friendly property.

Dawn Parker: And this wasn't the case a few years ago and, certainly, probably as a result of the pandemic and people spending more time at home.

Dawn Parker: and, interestingly it's women on it stated that women are twice as likely as meant to prioritize prioritize frankly property which probably shows that women.

Dawn Parker: Have the same home, which we always have done and but also like their animals and so on, and spending more time there.

Dawn Parker: And that does come with its problems, obviously pets can damage properties and agent has to be really vigilant and make sure that the.

Dawn Parker: The properties that catching condition that inspections have done and, at the end of the tendency that the properties of.

Dawn Parker: carpets are deflated and so on, and it just it just makes a lot of difference quality DECO came as a second preference so tenants are definitely favoring modern fixtures and fittings.

Dawn Parker: And, according to the research and one of the things they are looking for such things to sky Sky TV and for heating and modern appliances and I certainly know from my conversations here with our.

Dawn Parker: Latins department that things like dishwashers have far more important than there used to be before as well i'm closely followed with high speed internet.

Dawn Parker: And we're connected world now so that is really important, when they're looking at these properties, they need to know that there's a good.

Dawn Parker: Internet connection with a fast speed, they also want it up and running and function, and as soon as they move in they don't want to wait, they just wanted there and ready to go.

Dawn Parker: And in normal times tenants tend to commute so properties on the transport links have always been really important that's obviously changed over the past year or so, but we're heading back towards that.

Dawn Parker: So it's worth mentioning to to anybody that's looking that anywhere that's where connectivity transport links, this is going to be vital.

Dawn Parker: And even if you've covered all of these properties, one of the things we do know is that tenants are very nervous about renting a property with a private landlord that isn't using a professional management agent.

Dawn Parker: They really do worry that they're going to be looked after properly in terms of legislation.

Dawn Parker: And that thing the properties can be kept up to date and they're going to have that contact.

Dawn Parker: With the landlord they want to from what we've been told by the tenants, they need that good relationship and they want us to foster a good relationship as well with the landlord which is sometimes impossible when your private landlord.

Dawn Parker: Next slide please.

Dawn Parker: Okay, thank you.

Dawn Parker: Okay, so what What do we expect for 2021 well the honest answer is i'm it remains quite uncertain that's the most likely prediction for the next year, however, we do know that property demand is going to carry on.

Dawn Parker: With the strength, has it has it has been, and will increase, and we know that, because of a few reasons, one of them being that usually autumn winter.

Dawn Parker: Or the quietest times in the rental market and they haven't been they've been exceptionally busy.

Dawn Parker: we're heading out of winter now, apart from the snow that we've had here in the UK over the past week or so and into spring spring is usually the height of time for tenants to start looking.

Dawn Parker: it's always the busiest period so with the exceptionally busy period we've had over the past six to eight months, especially.

Dawn Parker: The next six to eight months do look as though they're going to carry on without which is great news for landlords and.

Dawn Parker: We do still face challenges with tenants with reduced incomes who need payment plans and so on, and we don't know how that's going to pan out over the next year.

Dawn Parker: tenants are slowly getting back to work furlough is ending the economy is starting to move So hopefully that particular challenge will end at some point over the next 12 months or so.

Dawn Parker: The other challenges that we're facing is in terms of the government's meshes with eviction notices, they are that that is still a huge problem we'll talk about that in relation to legislation in a moment, but at least it's likely to remain as it is in the short term.

Dawn Parker: Thank you back next one.

Dawn Parker: Okay, so we'll talk a little bit about legislation i'll try not make it too boring.

Dawn Parker: And the ice on rules and now, obviously in full swing and going forward it's very fancy title, but it has the electrical safety standards in the private rented sector England regulations 2020.

Dawn Parker: And it actually came into effect, last June for all existing tenses but now is in place for from the first of April for every every tenancy.

Dawn Parker: Sorry for all new tenants is from last year I do apologize, and for all, every tenancy now.

Dawn Parker: It has I think every agency has a face and a bit of a headache getting these he is he is done and.

Dawn Parker: They don't pass it so they don't fail on a home unnecessary quite serious and obviously the good thing is, we do need to know when things are seriously wrong to be able to deal with them they're required every five years and.

Dawn Parker: it's so it's long overdue that this this legislation is come into place failure to comply with this, so any landlord who doesn't comply to it doesn't know how to comply with it the penalties up to 30,000 pounds so it's not to be sniffed it needs to be taken really seriously.

Dawn Parker: The debt risk bite scheme that's it called breathing space 2021.

Dawn Parker: coming into play on the fourth of May, that this is an interesting one, so it's basically giving attendance or anybody who is intact protection from being hounded for the debt.

Dawn Parker: Obviously, in this in this industry that we're in tenants do fall into that and we do chase them as every everybody does.

Dawn Parker: we're not going to be able to do that they're going to be if they apply for this and they're going to be able to have some it called a two month rest bike so it means they can't be contacted for the rental debt or indeed for any of the debt.

Dawn Parker: is designed to give them the chance to get on top of their finances.

Dawn Parker: For 60 days they can't be contacted and hopefully during that time, the idea is that they're given time to work through what they need to do.

Dawn Parker: The other part of the legislation is for anybody that's going through mental health crisis treatment.

Dawn Parker: And they have to be going through this with an approved mental health professional that mental health professional can apply for breathing space for that person.

Dawn Parker: That lasts indefinitely that lasts for as long as their treatment lasts for the for the honest that they have.

Dawn Parker: After the health professional says that they are now able to deal with their finances that it stops, one of the 30 days afterwards, so, in effect, it can go on and on and on, which could have huge impact obviously for landlords.

Dawn Parker: who unfortunately find themselves in that situation under either of these schemes and we can't serve any notices, so no section eight know section 21, and that is something that is a massive concern for the industry.

Dawn Parker: Section 20 ones will remain in place, but still remain in place for six months, and at this point in time.

Dawn Parker: it's something I was talking to brad about actually the other day we don't know how, when and where that will change, and there is some.

Dawn Parker: Some sort of interest in the industry as to what will happen if the government decides to revert to the two months notice.

Dawn Parker: With all the ones that have still got six months to play ones that have just been served and the honest answer is, we still don't know the courts have still have a huge backlog.

Dawn Parker: With evictions and I can't see them being cleared anytime soon so yeah it's a still quite a difficult area that one i'm hoping that the government will realize that this is quite harsh for landlords and at some point, common sense will prevail.

Dawn Parker: rent controls so did sadiq Khan, Lord Mayor of London he's talking about rent controls, this is where they can be kept and imposed on landlords this has been discussed in the parts of the country previously and.

Dawn Parker: Again i'm hoping common sense will prevail, because it.

Dawn Parker: it's not what if it is like legislated it's going to have a huge impact on the industry and could cause untold damage we don't know how it would play out we just hope that.

Dawn Parker: The government and everybody else has got enough other things going on, but they won't pass something that's going to just be a disaster, really.

Dawn Parker: Okay, the next one is correct.

Dawn Parker: So the perfect property and the perfect long landlord well, as it says that we have, we have a perfect idea in our heads of what's going to happen with these properties so.

Dawn Parker: Of course, in reality, a perfect property is isn't one that when the think ever needs fixing it certainly does.

Dawn Parker: Perfect landlords have tons of time on the hand to deal with anything that comes up and can just send contractors out regardless.

Dawn Parker: A perfect tenant well we're never going to hear from them they're never going to fall into areas they're not going to report any maintenance issues and they're just going to stay there, so it's every property.

Dawn Parker: The perfect agent, will they will know exactly what they're doing all of the time and be able to deal with every situation I guarantee I learned all the tenants rent.

Dawn Parker: or for the cheapest possible price.

Dawn Parker: Well, you know, in reality, I firmly believe that we should be hearing from tenants, we need to hear from tenants, because if we don't hear from them, we haven't got relationship from them.

Dawn Parker: They need to have a good relationship with us, they need to know that can come with us to us and confidently know that anything they report to us on need to discuss with this is going to be dealt with, efficiently and quickly.

Dawn Parker: A far more happy tenant is far more likely to stay in a property than one that has a bad experience.

Dawn Parker: And having many years in the industry, I can certainly say that is 100% the case it's a relationship that is a triangle between the agent landlord and tenant and if it's looked after properly.

Dawn Parker: everybody's a winner.

Dawn Parker: So the perfect management managing agent so they're responsible to be perfect on the landlord's behalf.

Dawn Parker: And we also need to look after the tenants, to give them every opportunity to enjoy the property a good manager agent will stay ahead of the competitors.

Dawn Parker: And by educating and supporting the team to understand every aspect of ever changing legislation with property management they'll keep fully updated on everything to do with the industry.

Dawn Parker: This will enable them to offer the best service to their landlords and tenants.

Dawn Parker: Here easy track, we definitely provide pride ourselves on having a qualified team with experts in every area of our business.

Dawn Parker: Our clients have one point of contact to ensure everything runs smoothly and clients queries can be dealt with quickly and efficiently.

Dawn Parker: I believe firmly it's unrivaled in the industry we're able to offer market advice on the properties throughout the country.

Dawn Parker: it's a unique understanding of market conditions that makes us kind of unrivaled not many agents can understand a property in London and one in the north of England, as well, and so that's what makes us different and makes us the perfect managing agent.

Dawn Parker: And that's the end of mine.

It.

Brett AlegreWood: OK cool well guys so awesome thanks guys yeah so we haven't had to do to make any had one one question is certainly one that is raising the bar so guys if you've got.

Ryan Rahnavard: Having a drink of the pub.

Brett AlegreWood: yeah that's probably they're afraid to where they're afraid of multivitamins speak now guys if you got questions come through now and we're happy to answer them but.

Brett AlegreWood: yeah with I mean hopefully you've got a bit of an idea now there's two things you know, things were crap we had austerity and then we had brexit and now i've had over the nation code for properties it hasn't been that bad.

Brett AlegreWood: Realistically, the government really did you know, provide a bit of a security blanket so things didn't fall off first year, which is great.

Brett AlegreWood: But now's the time to be getting back on the horse and really resetting what is the next decade, I think, hopefully that's the sense you've got now.

Brett AlegreWood: And it doesn't matter where you're starting from whether you've got one property 10 properties, whether you've had them for five years or you've just bought them.

Brett AlegreWood: You know it's about getting that strategy structure about it getting your questions answered getting that level of certainty so yeah that's really I guess the message that we want to get across.

Brett AlegreWood: And you know we've got regular webinars so you know, to keep you abreast of things that are changing, you know.

Brett AlegreWood: You know, come on the webinars these we run this one every two months every second month just to update you on the market, where it's at and really normally, we have a lot more questions so really.

Brett AlegreWood: A few people have been watching my rv and keep me abreast and and now you know so yeah has anyone got any other questions because.

Brett AlegreWood: I mean we're right on time now to respect where it belongs, so but that's okay it's all good good information.

Brett AlegreWood: No.

Brett AlegreWood: Come on guys this gotta be can't have you guys on there and nobody's actually asked questions.

Brett AlegreWood: Really all right well.

Brett AlegreWood: shy anymore, then yeah look guys if if you're interested in taking it further in here us and in looking at property getting a sense, where the market is you know anything you know pretty much any questions.

Brett AlegreWood: You know, you can either I mean there's obviously my weekly live live stream, which I can answer those questions live for you.

Brett AlegreWood: And we had this sort of been but it's live, otherwise you got a team called team either data glad fish in London or easy track up in Lincoln actually were.

Brett AlegreWood: were moved office in London to new office in very straight and I still buried in that area and.

Brett AlegreWood: we're in the process, potentially moving now we're just selecting a new office with with decided because ready to come down i'm going to get a bigger office better office and probably a building.

Brett AlegreWood: We should be quite good so yeah so that that's quite exciting, but you know, in terms of you know, whatever you need as an investor, you know we're happy to provide that so you guys.

Brett AlegreWood: But song yeah okay if there's no questions, then great, but the one thing I will say, if you have got questions at any stage, you can just send them through to our webinars are glad fish.com.

Brett AlegreWood: And i'm happy to answer them and all of the answer mama live stream or i'll respond to them.

Brett AlegreWood: You know directly, so if you check out with us, you know answer your questions, after just send them through yeah alright guys well, I guess, if that's it we'll get we'll call it, and I have a great thing and they enjoy enjoy the hopefully the weather and the i've been pulse.

Brett AlegreWood: Alright guys.

let's have a good night bye.

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