CEBR Predicts 2021 House Prices to Tumble 13.8%… Really?

Brett Alegre-Wood
October 13, 2020

Most experts are wrong most of the time

I have been tracking CEBR (The Centre for Economics and Business Research) for ages and I find that most of the time they're wrong more than they're right and they are trying to get column inches then giving a really good advise.

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Let's have a look at CEBR the Centre for Economics and Business Research. Now look you know price is expected to tumble in the coming months, now you might say Brett why are you showing me this? You're supposed to be a property guy and you know that you're supposed to be upbeat and about everything.

Well the reality is this possibly could happen, but the interesting thing I found with these and forget what they say you know look the tumble blah blah blah 13.8 percent lower in things so that's their prediction. If you remember my prediction was -3% last week.

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Now interesting if you look at who CEBR is “it's a rare thing in economics, a consultancy with a tendency to get things right”. Well these guys I've been tracking them for ages and in actual fact I find that they're wrong more than they're right. As I say most experts are wrong most of the time but they continuously get column inches and interestingly if we go back to that slide regular reports, attention grabbing, original newsworthy, regular reports.

For me that's not a good thing if I'm an investor trying to listen to that attention grabbing reports, newsworthy that sounds more like they're trying to get column inches and they are trying to give you really good advice.

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UK housing bubble set to burst. Now the interesting thing with 14% hit in house prices interestingly if you look at most of the news and most of you guys already know this has been watching me. Most of the news is just rehashed stuff, so somebody produces a report and then everyone else rehashes it. That headline is literally based on CEBR's report that says that. It's interesting with this whole thing.

Are we to believe that? Look when you go in on their website and read the report you know I mean there's perfectly valid reasons why this should happen. But I think actually when we talk about death defying, defying gravity and things like that and you know 14 point this drop and all this sort of stuff.

My challenge with this is the one big thing that we haven't accounted for and a lot of people aren't talking about is how much liquidity there has been pumped into the market. And we're talking around about 30% so if you look at the entire cash and that's called cash it's not technically cash but money supply okay that was in there it's increased about 30% in 2020.

Now that's incredible that's unprecedented so most people would say that's going to cause massive inflation. But it's only going to cause massive inflation if it's you know they put too much in you know if that's what the economy needs to stay where it is then that's what it needs. Now the trick is how do you come out the other end and grow and that I think is having one of the challenges that we will talk about.

Video Transcription

Let's have a look at CEBR the Centre for Economics and Business Research. Now look you know price is expected to tumble in the coming months, now you might say Brett why are you showing me this? You're supposed to be a property guy and you know that you're supposed to be upbeat and about everything. Well the reality is this possibly could happen, but the interesting thing I found with these and forget what they say you know look the tumble blah blah blah 13.8 percent lower in things so that's their prediction. If you remember my prediction was -3% last week. Now interesting if you look at who CEBR is “it's a rare thing in economics, a consultancy with a tendency to get things right”. Well these guys I've been tracking them for ages and in actual fact I find that they're wrong more than they're right. As I say most experts are wrong most of the time but they continuously get column inches and interestingly if we go back to that slide regular reports, attention grabbing, original newsworthy, regular reports. For me that's not a good thing if I'm an investor trying to listen to that attention grabbing reports, newsworthy that sounds more like they're trying to get column inches and they are trying to give you really good advice. UK housing bubble set to burst. Now the interesting thing with 14% hit in house prices interestingly if you look at most of the news and most of you guys already know this has been watching me. Most of the news is just rehashed stuff, so somebody produces a report and then everyone else rehashes it. That headline is literally based on CEBR's report that says that. It's interesting with this whole thing. Are we to believe that? Look when you go in on their website and read the report you know I mean there's perfectly valid reasons why this should happen. But I think actually when we talk about death defying, defying gravity and things like that and you know 14 point this drop and all this sort of stuff. My challenge with this is the one big thing that we haven't accounted for and a lot of people aren't talking about is how much liquidity there has been pumped into the market. And we're talking around about 30% so if you look at the entire cash and that's called cash it's not technically cash but money supply okay that was in there it's increased about 30% in 2020. Now that's incredible that's unprecedented so most people would say that's going to cause massive inflation. But it's only going to cause massive inflation if it's you know they put too much in you know if that's what the economy needs to stay where it is then that's what it needs. Now the trick is how do you come out the other end and grow and that I think is having one of the challenges that we will talk about.


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