US Side or China side?
The trade war has started and it’s not going away, your country will have to choose a side… place your bets… or Learn more on my thoughts in the video below.
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This is out of the euro monster stuff, which I pulled out. I thought it was quite interesting because you've got increasing probability decreasing probability which are these sort of up and down squares and if you have a look no deal Brexit is on the way up.
The probability of that happening but the probability of happening is 30% I don't think it's going to happen, I think it will in principle happen but I think we'll call it a deal and they will call it a deal and it'll be a last you know minute you know deal sort of thing but it'll be a deal.
The other side of it is you know the next one down which is 20% is a disorderly no deal Brexit which is 20% now my concern and when I was looking at this. So what we're saying is a disorderly no deal was 20%, a no deal Brexit is 30% does that mean there's a 50% chance of a no deal Brexit which the flip side of that is 50% that there is going to be a deal. I think there will be anyway.
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It's a very different market in Scotland, it's a smaller market. There's some fundamental changes namely oil and gas with all the issues there and that I know Aberdeen and a few of those places house prices have dropped considerably. So, it depends on how that's reacted.
Some of the interesting things you know about the eurozone recession 10%, you've got the pessimistic view of Covid19 pessimistic view two and pessimistic view three you know so you've got the different probabilities there. I just thought that was quite interesting the one of the things I found interesting because I've been reading a lot of Ray Dalio and about you know wars and things like that and really getting into the future casting where we're likely to head in world war III and all that sort of stuff.
Interestingly global trade war the probability is going down they're decreasing and I think that's because Trump is going out. But without a doubt and I think most people are saying this is that America and China are going to be loggerheads for the next 30 or 40 years.
The next cold war is going to begin and the actual wall won't be a cold wall you know it'll be a firewall it'll be down the lines of information technology. And it may be that you've got to choose whether you use Wechat or Whatsapp, whether you go with China or America you know pick your sides.
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I chatting the other day about Singapore because obviously being in Singapore we are very much both sides you know we're sitting swirly on the fence you know and and the question is is at some point they're likely going to have to make us choose, or we're going to have to choose which side we sit because America won't allow us to sit on their side if we're caught in China and China won’t allow us you know on the other side and a number of countries do that.
I mean Australia interesting you know Aussie has squarely gone down the route of you know America you know which wow you know their trading partner is there but their military support is America so that's happening.
But on the other side of the US-China all-out trade war, you know that's gone from 25% and it's decreasing we'll see what happens. I think regardless of who's in the trade war is going to continue without a doubt.
This is out of the euro monster stuff, which I pulled out. I thought it was quite interesting because you've got increasing probability decreasing probability which are these sort of up and down squares and if you have a look no deal Brexit is on the way up. The probability of that happening but the probability of happening is 30% I don't think it's going to happen, I think it will in principle happen but I think we'll call it a deal and they will call it a deal and it'll be a last you know minute you know deal sort of thing but it'll be a deal. The other side of it is you know the next one down which is 20% is a disorderly no deal Brexit which is 20% now my concern and when I was looking at this. So what we're saying is a disorderly no deal was 20%, a no deal Brexit is 30% does that mean there's a 50% chance of a no deal Brexit which the flip side of that is 50% that there is going to be a deal. I think there will be anyway. Some of the interesting things you know about the eurozone recession 10%, you've got the pessimistic view of Covid19 pessimistic view two and pessimistic view three you know so you've got the different probabilities there. I just thought that was quite interesting, the one of the things I found interesting because I've been reading a lot of Ray Dalio and about you know wars and things like that and really getting into the future casting where we're likely to head in world war III and all that sort of stuff. Interestingly global trade war the probability is going down they're decreasing and I think that's because Trump is going out. But without a doubt and I think most people are saying this is that America and China are going to be loggerheads for the next 30 or 40 years. The next cold war is going to begin and the actual wall won't be a cold wall you know it'll be a firewall it'll be down the lines of information technology. And it may be that you've got to choose whether you use Wechat or Whatsapp, whether you go with China or America you know pick your sides. I chatting the other day about Singapore because obviously being in Singapore we are very much both sides you know we're sitting swirly on the fence you know and and the question is is at some point they're likely going to have to make us choose, or we're going to have to choose which side we sit because America won't allow us to sit on their side if we're caught in China and China won’t allow us you know on the other side and a number of countries do that. I mean Australia interesting you know Aussie has squarely gone down the route of you know America you know which wow you know their trading partner is there but their military support is America so that's happening. But on the other side of the US-China all-out trade war, you know that's gone from 25% and it's decreasing we'll see what happens. I think regardless of who's in the trade war is going to continue without a doubt.
