Lets talk about London

Brett Alegre-Wood
May 15, 2019

Video Transcription:

Hey guys, so welcome to Brett's Property Rants. So, I want to talk about London today. London's really actually starting to impress me, I have to say. Most people are talking it down. Most people are actually still saying... It never ceases to amaze me how people can be so two or three years behind

I'm in Singapore now, right now on the beach so you can see this lovely view of all the shipping, and I'll tell you what, Singapore is not slowing down, that's for sure. The number of boats that are out there.

So London. So it's amazing, I find consistently how people quote what was two to three to four to five years ago, the market. So people are saying, oh yeah, house prices are dropping a lot in London, it's like, no, they're not, actually. They were, and it's amazing, when they were dropping, people were telling me, oh, I want to get into London, house prices, growing. It's like, no, they've gone down. But that's the reality here, is that most people are behind the market by about two or three years. And the problem is when there is a massive change in the market, all of a sudden they're shocked by it. Now, look, for the last sort of six months, probably even longer than that, nine months.

I've been talking about that there will be a downturn. Make no mistake, there's going to be a downturn. America with what it's doing, China with what it's doing, the world with what it's doing, and whether it be Brexit triggers it, whether it be Trump triggers it, whether it be Trump invading who knows where to keep the war machine going, who knows what the trigger is going to be.

Go into YouTube, and have a look at all the videos that predict prices going down in 2013. And in 2014. And in 2016. 17, 18, 19. Every single year there's, house prices are dropping. People are quite happy to try and predict the moment that it's going to happen. But you know what? Most the time, they're wrong.

And it's ridiculous. So, what do I see with London? London is going to do well. Make no mistake, it is still a world city, I don't care what happens with Brexit, at the end of the day, Brexit hasn't been the downfall of London. If anything, the business has been moving from London up to Manchester and Birmingham. So actually, they're being the real beneficiaries. But nobody's really talking about that, are they? Understand, London is still growing.

London is still expanding. So you're not gonna get rid of London any time soon. But what I will say is this. Right now there's roughly one million... There are seven million people in the world, okay... One million people live in North America, one million people live in Europe. Sorry, what am I saying? There are seven billion people. One billion in America, one billion in Europe, one billion in Africa, and then there's effectively four billion in Asia. So, those four billion in Asia, that is starting now to really show, and we're talking India, and Asia, and China, effectively, and southeast Asia and that. So that's where the population is.

So what you're starting to find are historical things where... The UK used to rule the world. And then it lost its place to the US. And the US is losing its place to China. Now, is it China, or is it Asia? That's interesting, that's a topic for another discussion. But the reality is what we're finding is the population now, is going to continue rising, it is going to level out because not as many babies are being born now. So what does that mean? Well, what that means is in about two generations, we're actually gonna see a lot of our towns, our suburbs, places outside the fundamentals, are gonna start to drop off. In other words, people aren't gonna live there anymore. They're gonna become the ghost towns. Look in some of the American... I can't think of the route name. In the deserts of like, Nevada and California and that sort of stuff. You know, when you get out and there's an old place and there's like one petrol station, and there's no one for kilometres. That sort of thing. The Hollywood movie type scene. That, potentially, is what's gonna happen with a lot of the suburbs far out, because people are moving to the cities.

Because they move to the cities, what's one of the best cities in the world, still to this day, what's still seen as a safe haven is London. And that's not going to change any time soon. London is a fantastic place. If you can't afford London, okay fine, Manchester, Birmingham, long term, fantastic. Now that's not to mean that they're not gonna still go up and down. With the market, that is gonna happen. But if you buy for the long term, which my suggestion is you are and you should be, and you should be buying to hold, as opposed to trading, then this is a great way and a great place to buy. The thing I like about London right now is that we've got developers that are having problems selling. In fact, no stock is moving. So they're willing to do deals.

So actually, London is the cheapest it's ever been. Two years ago, house prices were dropping. They'd stopped dropping and they were sort of evening out, but what was happening is a steady rate of sales. So what actually happened, developers and agents that, they weren't negotiating. But now what's happened, things have dropped off. Now, prices aren't really moving that much. They're still staying. Actually, in fact, they went up this month, and down last month, and the reality is what happens now is vendors and developers and that are willing to do even more deals. So you're getting that extra push, but the fundamentals are still there. I mean, Brexit isn't that much of a drum as people are making out. A lot of the damage is already been done. It's been slow, ripping off the Band-Aid rather than the quick get rid of it and date it done.

So look, London is back. Make no mistake. We're looking at stuff that... Now, I'm not talking central London now, we're not really looking central London, but some places like Southwell, which you may not have heard, out of Eling, that sort of places. Moving out of the centre now places that... We were very much in the southeast, southwest, that sort of area, the last boom if you like, but now we might be moving east. Sorry. West. But further west. So what you're finding now is rather than being in the centre, you're sort of moving that out and following that ripple effect out where the fundamentals are changing. So there are some major, major things happening.

Communal towns. They're all doing really well. As long as you get the fundamentals. Even with things like Airbnb, if you get within five minutes of a train station in London, and potentially, if you get an Airbnb through your lease, then that's another option as well. So there are more options now to make more money on some of our properties. We're starting to get into the service apartment side of things, which is really exciting. It's hard because on one hand you've got the developers that are saying no to it, and so they're prohibiting it in the leases, but then, on the other hand, it's actually where the market is heading. London is back.

Make no mistake. Research it, look at it, and you will start to see things starting to move in the right direction. It may be a year or two before, even three years, four years before you see booming growth again. But it is worthwhile and now I think is the cheapest time that you're ever gonna find. I don't see it going down further, because developers are willing to do that extra development, that extra discounting, that extra bargaining, because they need to get the volume of sales. It's as simple as that. And people are starting to realize if they need to get rid of it, they need to get rid of it now. They don't wanna be waiting til the Brexit happens or doesn't happen, or referendum second who knows with Brexit. It's all up in the air. Anyone that says they know, they don't know.

I've been actually predicting it quite accurately so far, but really, it's a, if you wanna, it's just an amazing thing to view. I mean, I don't think we'll ever have this happen again in our life. But maybe it will, maybe this is a sign of all politics to come. You know, in the future. Anyway guys, have a great day. Live with passion. And make sure you subscribe, comment, anything you wanna say. If you wanna argue with me, you wanna prove me wrong, do it. I'm looking forward to it. Looking forward to a healthy discussion.

All right guys have a great day. Live with passion. See ya.


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