Long-Term Property Cycle Of Prices Increasing Over Time Be Affected By The Current Economic Climate?

Brett Alegre-Wood
November 2, 2020

My Prediction is London will come back sooner.

I don't think there will be a massive price drop. Everything comes down to government policies- the physical and monetary policies.

Q: How will the long term property cycle of prices increasing over time be affected by the current economic climate?

Good one, again this comes down to government policy. We've got the fiscal and monetary policy.

Monetary policy which is changing up lowering of interest rates and things like that money supply that is largely gone now unless they go into the negative interest rate terms which they may well do.

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It's a very different market in Scotland, it's a smaller market. There's some fundamental changes namely oil and gas with all the issues there and that I know Aberdeen and a few of those places house prices have dropped considerably. So, it depends on how that's reacted.

The other side is the fiscal policy, the fiscal policy is taxation and incentives and stimuluses and all those sorts of things. Certainly because they have, you know they're pushing to have you know stimulus and keep stimulus and they're talking about changing plannings and all these sort of things, actually that should allow us to get through this.

This is why I think that we're not going to have this big drop. We're actually going to play through quite well. All right that's my take on it.  Do I think that how long is it going to look normally if you have a drop and an unemployment rate increases? It takes about two years to pick up that slack in the economy.

If it's really really bad we may sit at the bottom for a while but you know you're still gonna things will drop and then they'll just hit the bottom and then once at the bottom they'll bounce along and they'll start to come back out. 

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So for me you know I would say the most you know and obviously plucking things out of the ear here a little bit. Two years you know so we're talking you know 2021-2022 by 2023 I think we're going to be back into it. I actually think London will come back strong sooner.

So look I think two years is probably the most will be affected I think we've got this you know coronavirus et cetera et cetera for the next two years. So bank on that you know but I don't see prices dropping massively even if, but I expect unemployment to increase but not that dramatically because the government will be stimulating.

Video Transcription

Good one, again this comes down to government policy. We've got the fiscal and monetary policy. Monetary policy which is changing up lowering of interest rates and things like that money supply that is largely gone now unless they go into the negative interest rate terms which they may well do. The other side is the fiscal policy, the fiscal policy is taxation and incentives and stimuluses and all those sorts of things. Certainly because they have, you know they're pushing to have you know stimulus and keep stimulus and they're talking about changing plannings and all these sort of things, actually that should allow us to get through this. This is why I think that we're not going to have this big drop. We're actually going to play through quite well. All right that's my take on it.  Do I think that how long is it going to look normally if you have a drop and an unemployment rate increases? It takes about two years to pick up that slack in the economy. If it's really really bad we may sit at the bottom for a while but you know you're still gonna things will drop and then they'll just hit the bottom and then once at the bottom they'll bounce along and they'll start to come back out. So for me you know I would say the most you know and obviously plucking things out of the ear here a little bit. Two years you know so we're talking you know 2021-2022 by 2023 I think we're going to be back into it. I actually think London will come back strong sooner. So look I think two years is probably the most will be affected I think we've got this you know coronavirus et cetera et cetera for the next two years. So bank on that you know but I don't see prices dropping massively even if, but I expect unemployment to increase but not that dramatically because the government will be stimulating.


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