2010's House Price Pedictions
Once again I am going to look to a range of property experts across the UK and the world and see what the consensus is on 2010 UK House Price Predictions.
Congratulations to the winning expert of the 2009 UK House Price Predictions – Ray Boulger from Charcoal.
If you remembered last year, Ray Boulger ended up being the closest to what actually happen with his 5% down then 5% up model, ending the year even.
This year my 2010 UK House Price Predictions are similar to Ray's last year. I think that prices will slide (although my gut feels like that may even hold) through the first 3 to 6 months followed by a definite recovery through the end of 2010.
Let's take a look at what other experts are saying:
Average 2010 UK House Price prediction – Down 3%
Highest 2010 House Price Rise for 2010 – Up 10%
Biggest 2010 House Price Drop for 2010 – Down 20%
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1.Yolande Barnes – Savills – down 6%
2.Hetal Mehta – Ernest and Young – down 5%
3. Martin Gahbauer – Nationwide – 0%
4. Nicholas Leeming – Zoopla – Up 2-3%
5. Michael Saunders – Citi Group – Up 5-10%
6. Cluttons – down 2% (Up 3% london)
7. Market Oracle – Down 3.5%
8. Knight Frank – Grow 3%
9. Capital Economics – Down 10%
10. Savills Estate Agents – Down 3%
11. Fitch – Down 17%
12. Global Insight – Down 5%
13. National House Builders Federation – Par
14. Hometrack – No prediction
15. David Hollingworth – London and Country – Par
16. Peter Bolton – National Asso. Of Estate Agents – Par
17. Ray Boulger – Charcoal – Up 4%.
18. Melanie Bien – Savills Private Finance – Down 6.6%
19. MoneyWeek – Drop 20%
20. Brett Alegre-Wood – Gladfish – Up 5%
21. Jones Lange Lasalle – Down 7%
22. Cluttons – Down 1.5%
23. Halifax – Par
24. Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors – Rise 1.5%
25. Building Society Association (BSA) Property Tracker Consumer Survey – Rise 3%
Now if you remembered last year the average drop expected was 10% yet the reality was a rise of 2% ish. So if you listened to the ‘experts' last year, you would have been around 12% on average worse off. On a £200,000 home that's £24,000 difference which is huge.
Will the experts get it right this year?
Well, it doesn't really matter but for some strange reason we will continue listening to them.
Never forget that house prices are a localised thing, in many cases street by street, so think and research locally, and know your indices.
Now the truth is that I do believe based on my experience that house prices will end somewhere between par and 10% increase, I do not see them ending down, although there are still lots of risks.
The real question you should be asking is – What does any of it mean for my portfolio? You may find like many of our clients that in fact it means little. Then stop worrying and get on with life.
The economic recovery is under way and that's the most important bit, a gradual return to ‘the good old days' of capital growth and employment will come and the recession of 08/09 will soon be the subject of history books.
So start planning your future now rather than re-reading the history books.
Anyway, if you want to know the impact of any of these situations on your personal portfolio or just want to get involved for the coming boom give the team a call on +44 (0)207 923 6100.
Live with passion,