UK Autumn Statement – Bretts Live Reaction – 17 Nov 2022

Full Transcription

Brett Alegre-Wood 00:00
Hey guys, so welcome to another live stream tonight after last night, last night's livestream. So actually tonight we're gonna do the autumn statement, I've got it on my on the side here. So we're just gonna follow it live stream. I've done this before over the last couple of years, which has been quite interesting. So we'll, we'll see how that turns out. That basically, yeah, look, I'm just gonna get my opinion on stuff. And yet to see how we come out. So hopefully, it all turns out good and wonderful. I doubt that's going to be the case, I think I'm in two minds of this. I'm just going to shut these guys up the BBC that are speaking right now. So we're just gonna be following along with the BBC. They've obviously gone there. They've arrived now. So that's quite good. So what I'll do is I'll shut me so you can watch on the website as well. bit of fun and games. So yeah, so what am I expecting? Today? Look, I think everybody's talking about how we've got this 52 or 54, or whatever it is 56 billion pound gap? How are we going to get that sorted? Either to the two issues with this, as I have, we did austerity for about 10 years, it didn't work, it totally screwed every aspect of society, it ruins society. And my challenge with that is is that we're talking about going back into that now. Because those funded that funding gap has to either be done through borrowings or it has to be done through higher taxes, or less government spending. And the problem is, I think, adding tax at a time now, when inflation is so bad, you know, that really is gonna be damaging. And certainly, as a politician, you don't want to stand up to the you know, the vote next time. So I think that's going to be a real issue now. And it's one that I think we're going to really start to see, take its toll on people and really, for the conservatives, they're going to be job ahead of him. Because really, they're going to have hatred. And whatever they do, you know, so they're going to have to, so I'm just checking in to make sure the live streams on our YouTube channel, which it is, and also on our website at GLAAD,, forward slash dashboard. So it's all coming through now, which is good. But yeah, I think the issue really is, is what are they going to do? And I think it's all great to talk about it right now. I think, you know, the rich have got to pay more. They're saying, you know, the poor will, you know, most people middle class poor, you know, even, in fact, most people don't necessarily have these huge wads of cash sitting around, you know, I've seen how rents have gone up and it's, it's, it's actually pretty distressing scene, you know, the rents go up so much, that you're gonna go and sit there and you say, well, actually, the landlords now losing money every month, so they have to get that rental increase. And the only way they can get that rental increase is by increasing the rent, which means that that tenant now might have to pay 10 or 15% more, because it's going up so quickly. And if they don't have the money to do that, well, they're going to have to move, you know, and that's unfortunate, you know, that goes against everything and that. So this is a really insidious time right now, with the inflation and with interest rates and with even things like the rental reform bill and all those sort of things for this. It's extremely hard now see, they're just going across. So what I'll do is I'll, I'll turn on the speaker,

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 03:26
unprecedented global headwinds. I'll just give my mouth pensioners, businesses, teachers, nurses, and many others. agree with that. So today we deliver a plan to tackle the cost of living crisis and rebuild our economy is our priorities, our civility, growth, and public service has lots of lots of words so protect

Brett Alegre-Wood 03:55
effects. British. This is a really bunch of idiots

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 04:04
we are not alone in facing these problems. But to to an international we are honest about the challenges. And we are fair in our politics. Yes, we take difficult decisions to tackle inflation.

Brett Alegre-Wood 04:25
When it doesn't apply plan,

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 04:27
if so leads to a shallower downturn, lower and higher growth will say stronger and three priorities then today, stability, growth and public services. I start with stability. Speaker high inflation is the enemy of stability. It means higher mortgage rates more expensive food and spaciousness is feeding like unemployment rising road savings causes industrial unrest and public service, the other hurts the poor is now eats away at the trust upon which a strong society is built. The Office for Budget Responsibility confirms global factors are the primary cause of current inflation. Most countries are still dealing with the fallout from a once in a century pandemic. The furlough scheme, the vaccine rollout and the response of the NHS did our country proud. But the lasting impact on supply chains has made goods more expensive and fueled inflation. And this has been made worsened by a Made in Russia energy crisis. Russia. Russia's fault, Putin's war in Ukraine caused wholesale gasoline prices to rise. But reality is high here. But higher in Germany, the Netherlands is worse off interest rates have risen, blamed faster in the US, Canada, New Zealand growth forecasts have fallen here fallen in Germany, the International Monetary Fund expect 1/3 of the world's economy to be in recession this year or next, the Bank of England which has done an outstanding job. Now has my wholehearted support, possibly in its mission to defeat inflation worse and I date today confirm we will not change

Brett Alegre-Wood 06:44
any questions type into the

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 06:48
monetary and that means the government, the bank, working in lockstep means in particular giving the world confidence in our ability to pay our debts. British families make sacrifices every day to live within their means. It's interesting to say government, because the United Kingdom will always say it how much

Brett Alegre-Wood 07:12
do I

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 07:13
understand? Will they understand the logic of my predecessors and he was correct. To identify growth. Unfunded spending

Brett Alegre-Wood 07:30
is why this faces the plough often I actually spending time as down with the constituent government bonding. Most of these guys aren't really generate the government himself sitting by the wealthy billionaire class by Mr.

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 07:51
Speaker, ability cannot be taken for granted which

Brett Alegre-Wood 07:57
sounds pretty bad. I just don't have that.

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 07:59
I'm a relentless fight to bring it down, including a rock solid commitment to rebuild. This is

Brett Alegre-Wood 08:06
all preamble now which is just using

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 08:08
the OPR. Today lay out starkly the impact of global headwinds on the UK economy. And I'm enormously grateful to him and his team for their thorough work. The OPR forecast the UK is inflation rate to be 9.1% this year, and 7.4% next year 9.1. Not today, inflation to fall sharply from the middle of next year, middle of next year and play also judged a UK like other countries

Brett Alegre-Wood 08:39
is now kind of agree with

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 08:43
trust to grow by 4.2%. GDP then falls in 2023 by 1.4%, before rising by 1.3% 2.6% and 2.7% C following three years. Okay, the OPR says higher energy prices explained.

Brett Alegre-Wood 09:01
Yeah. No depression, they also already really had a

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 09:10
7.9% in 24, we have the fool falling to 4.1%. Today's decisions mean that over the next five years borrowing is more than halved. This year, we're forecast to borrow 7.1% of GDP or 177 billion pounds next year 5.5% of GDP or 140 billion pounds. Then by 2027 28. It falls to 2.4% of GDP. So you got your

Brett Alegre-Wood 09:37
recession and they cut in so as a result underlying debt was essentially gone up because you want to stimulate 97 us to spend 63, but this could get a scientist this is real deflationary territory. He also confirmed

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 09:52
two new fiscal rules that are really stated first is that underlying debt was fall as a percentage of GDP by the fifth Yeah, have a rolling five year period. The second that public sector borrowing over the same period must be below 3% of GDP. And the plan I'm announcing today meets both rules delivers a consolidation of 55 billion pounds means inflation and interest rates end up significantly lower. We achieved this Mr. Speaker in a balanced way, or balanced in the short term. Once this growth slows and unemployment rises, we will use financially

Brett Alegre-Wood 10:33
that is a challenge on your economy.

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 10:37
The NBR confirm that because of our plans, the recession is shallower and inflation is reduced. Unemployment is also lower, with about 70,000 jobs saved as a result of our decisions today. Then once growth returns, we increase the pace of consolidation to get debt falling. This further reduces the pressure on the bank to raise interest rates, because as conservatives outlive our generation. So Mr. Speaker, this is a balanced path to stability, balance, tackling inflation to reduce the cost of living and protect pensioners savings while supporting the economy on a path to growth. But it means taking difficult decisions. Anyone who says easy is not being straight with the British people. Some argue, some argue for spending cuts, that that would not be compatible with high quality public services. Other say savings should be found. Now that conservatives know that high tech economy damaged enterprise and erode freedom. We want low taxes and sound money that conservatives know sound money has to come first, because inflation eats away at the pound in people's pockets. Even more insidiously than taxes. So we've just under half of the 55 billion pound consolidation coming from tax and just over half from spending. This is a balanced plan for stability,

Brett Alegre-Wood 12:26
knows about 27th.

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 12:31
I have tried to be fair by following two broad principles. Firstly, we asked those with more to contribute more. And secondly, we avoid the tax rises that damage growth. Although my decisions today do lead to a substantial tax increase, we have not raised headline rates of taxation and tax as a percentage of GDP will increase by just 1% over the next five years. I start with personal taxes. Asking more from those who have more means that the first difficult decision I take on tax is to reduce the threshold at which the 45 p rate becomes payable from 150,000 pounds to 125,140 pounds. Those earning 150,000 pounds or more will pay just over 1200 pounds more in tax every year. So that's also taking difficult decisions on tax free allowances, maintaining current levels the income tax personal allowance, higher rate threshold, may National Insurance thresholds and the inheritance tax thresholds for further two years, taking us to April 2028. So even after that, we'll still have the most generous set of tax free allowances of any g7

Brett Alegre-Wood 13:49
comes from that increase for property invest and also reforming

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 13:53
the tax dividend allowance 1000 pounds next year and then to 500 pounds from April 24. The annual exempt amount for capital gains tax will be cut from 12,300 pounds to 6000 pounds next year and then 3000 pounds from April 2014. These changes still leave us with more generous allowances than countries that means

Brett Alegre-Wood 14:16
the tax free allowance and Canada Pay more tax

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 14:20
because the OPR forecast half of all new vehicles will be electric by 2025. To make our motoring tax system fairer, I've decided that from them, electric vehicles will no longer be exempt from vehicle excise duty company car tax rates will remain lower for electric vehicles. And I've listened to industry limits

Brett Alegre-Wood 14:43
rating for three years. That's right.

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 14:47
2025. So yes, the OVR expects housing activity to slow over the next two years. Yeah, so the stamp duty cuts announced in the mini budget will remain in place but only until the 31st of March 2020 to five. After that, I will sunset the measure, creating an incentive to support the housing market and the jobs associated with it. That's good transaction during the period of two things.

Brett Alegre-Wood 15:10
I really, still more. That's one of the key things here. Well, I've

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 15:17
decided to freeze the employers next threshold until April 2028. We will retain the employment allowance at its new higher level of 5000 pounds. This means 40% of all businesses will pay no nicks at all. The VAT threshold is already more than twice as high as the EU and OECD averages. I will maintain it at that level until March 26. i Right Honourable friend, the Prime Minister successfully negotiated a landmark international tax deal to make sure multinational corporations, including big tech companies pay the right tax in the countries they operate. I will implement these reforms making sure that you do alongside further measures to tackle tax avoidance and evasion this will raise an additional 2.8 billion pounds by 2728. I've also heard concerning reports of abuse and fraud in r&d tax relief for SMEs. So I've decided today to cut the loss for property investors and the credit ratings and SMB one, but increased types of rates.

Brett Alegre-Wood 16:24
Being one point everybody,

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 16:29
despite raising revenue, that these measures have no detrimental impact on the level of r&d investment in the economy. Ahead of the next budget, we'll work with industry to understand what further support r&d So far may require.

Brett Alegre-Wood 16:44
Look, if you're selling your properties, can I pay more,

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 16:49
I have no objection to windfall taxes. If they aren't genuinely about windfall profits, caused by unexpected increases in energy prices, but I know the honour worms obviously they get excited at the talk of windfall taxes, can I just say that any such tax should be temporary, not deter investment, and recognise the cyclical nature of energy. taking account

Brett Alegre-Wood 17:24
of this the fibre site on

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 17:27
March 28, we will increase it to 25 to 35%. The structure of our energy market also creates windfall profits for low carbon electricity generation. So from January the first we've decided to introduce a new temporary 45% levy on electricity generators. Together, these measures raise 14 billion pounds. That is finally and finally I turn to business rates. It's an important principle that bills should accurately reflect market values. So we'll proceed with a revaluation of business properties from April 23. But I will soften the blow on businesses with a nearly 14 billion pounds tax cut over the next five years. Nearly two thirds of properties will not pay a penny more next year, and 1000s of pubs, restaurants and shops will benefit. This will include a new government funded by the CBI, the British retail consortium, the Federation of Small businesses so far, around 700,000 businesses. Mr. Speaker our plan for the cost of living delivers lower inflation, lower mortgage rates, a shallower downturn and

Brett Alegre-Wood 18:46
lower unemployability last

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 18:49
fall's public spending discipline. Yeah. So I turn next to how we protect public services through a challenging period. Going to be addressing the Prime Minister's vision for spending this country has at its heart, a strong NHS and world class education. We know that a strong economy depends on strong public services. So we will protect them as much as we can, as we deliver our plan for stability and growth not to be we do have to take difficult decisions on public finances.

Brett Alegre-Wood 19:22
Well, it's all about public end,

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 19:25
we're going to grow more slowly than in the economy, Warren timing, so the remaining two years of the spending review, we'll protect the increases in the rental rate and then grow resource spending at 1% a year in real terms in the three years that followed. Although departments will have to make new purchases in like two months on fire this decisioning over 1% in public service actually continue to rise in real terms for the next five years. Before I turn, before I turn to our plan for schools in the NHS, I start with two other areas of interest. This is the Department for Work and Pensions has a critical role in supporting people into work. And I am proud to live in a country with one of the most comprehensive safety nets anywhere in the world. But I'm also concerned that we've seen a sharp increase in economically inactive working age adults of around 630,000 people since the start of the pandemic. Yep, employment levels have yet to return to pre pandemic levels, which is bad for businesses who cannot fill vacancies may well for themselves and their families. So the Prime Minister's are saying the Work and Pensions to do a thorough review of issues holding back workforce participation to conclude early in the new year. While inside this, I'm also committed to helping people already in work to raise their incomes progressing work, and become financial independence, I think so 600,000 More losing jobs on University, work coach to support they need to move back and manage the transition of people from employment and recession credit.

Brett Alegre-Wood 21:32
That's where it's heading to earn extra

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 21:34
money. Right now to benefit fraud and error. To government, you have a staff

Brett Alegre-Wood 21:45
coming back, getting back into normality, our recession

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 21:52
depends on our security. So it's like defence and other international commitments. The privilege of being this country's foreign secretary showed me firsthand the enormous respect in which this country is held. Because the United Kingdom is and has always been a force for good in the world. sums that up more than the courage of our armed forces, men and women who risk their lives every day in defence of our territory with our belief in freedom. Alongside them, I salute the citizens of another country. Right on the front line of that fight. Today, the brave people of Ukraine. United Kingdom has given them military support worth 2.3 billion pounds since the start of Putin's invasion, the second highest contribution in the world, after the United States demonstrates our commitment to democracy and open societies remains steadfast. In that context, the Prime Minister and I both

Brett Alegre-Wood 23:01
felt when this was over,

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 23:03
but before we make that it's necessary to revise and update integrated review player and this was before the Ukraine invasion being vital work completed of the next budget. Until they confirm we will continue to maintain the defence budget at least to be consistent with our NATO commitment. But

Brett Alegre-Wood 23:25
I think another important just summarise overseas aid from a property has been a significant shock you've got the cabinet if you're looking to be possible to return to

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 23:38
target until we remain up to date, spending will remain around DNI for the third

Brett Alegre-Wood 23:55
highest sides

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 23:59
and I am able to save lives around

Brett Alegre-Wood 24:04
what I'm disappointed

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 24:06
working closely with home members back in his basement

Brett Alegre-Wood 24:14
leadership and you know,

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 24:20
globally new buildings and getting you used by more than 20

Brett Alegre-Wood 24:25
market off because new book with the exit ability will always always will be the wrong time and that is still through the economy international money is far better than the economic pressure large corporation remain better tennis and vendor

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 24:42
historic party go.

Brett Alegre-Wood 24:44
The economy really sucks and it's one of the reasons why our own admission you build because of that element certainly coming out of a recession education. My second one here,

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 24:56
Mr. Speaker being pro education in

Brett Alegre-Wood 24:59
the US Necros

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 25:03
children with a good education is not just an economic mission. It's a moral mission, one to which my Right Honourable friend, the Prime Minister has always been deeply committed, thanks to the efforts of successive conservative, particularly my Right Honourable friends from Surrey Heath, and from Bognor Regis. We have risen nine places in the global league tables for maths and reading in the last seven years. I still, however, have concerns that not all school leavers get the skills they need for a modern life.

Brett Alegre-Wood 25:40
The US the UK

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 25:42
first time ever served education secretary who left school at 16 to become an apprentice and those first time around are many important initiatives in place, but as Chancellor, I want to know the answer to one simple question, Will every young person leave the education system with the skills they would get in Japan, Germany or Switzerland? So I have appointed so I've appointed Sir Michael Barber to advise me and my Right Honourable friend, the Education Secretary on the implementation of our skills reform programme. As we raise the skill levels of our schools they

Brett Alegre-Wood 26:25
got rid of things like apprenticeships

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 26:27
also to ensure in an economic crisis the improvement in school

Brett Alegre-Wood 26:34
school Fitch have have some have suggested it's out of school right now as

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 26:40
a way of increasing travel, travel and raise 1.2 billion pounds but a courageous what's called to 90,000 children switching just kidding with one hand only to take away with a nice

Brett Alegre-Wood 27:01
system great to get involved so

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 27:04
instead of being ideological, I actually had to be practical standards to continue to rise every single child budget we're going to increase it I can announce an extra point three boy heads and class sisters thank you for your brilliant work we need it to continue and in difficult economic circumstances have served in the public service for our are for

Brett Alegre-Wood 27:44
me. Good autumn statement for property investors.

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 27:50
Now for service we depend on nearly any other

Brett Alegre-Wood 27:53
capital gains is probably the

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 27:55
former Health Secretary I know people out on the sideline guys how much they're struggling after the pandemic

Brett Alegre-Wood 28:02
him for the rest of their biggest issues a workforce

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 28:03
shortage I

Brett Alegre-Wood 28:04
really don't see that. So today this a budget like this is done staff shortages. So a lot of things for a lot of companies do

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 28:17
forward a case workforce which I've raised people

Brett Alegre-Wood 28:23
have to go and find joy listen to this proposal getting productive

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 28:36
productivity is the number of doctors nurses are getting out

Brett Alegre-Wood 28:39
of the recession we'll need and find out which hiring is

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 28:43
taking full account for better return juicing productivity improvement creating

Brett Alegre-Wood 28:48
profit opportunity for you I've also listened

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 28:51
to representations need to get to the challenges

Brett Alegre-Wood 28:56
to get out of recession it did get the boom the other end bills and once the pandemic had the next boom. So in some ways credibly harshly what happens even

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 29:12
outside the pandemic

Brett Alegre-Wood 29:13
drive number of operators and wage massive inflation and check the wages are very real. Drop maybe a little bit more about

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 29:23
their free delivery forms or abilities

Brett Alegre-Wood 29:27
back in check and when that affordable level.

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 29:29
The employment is important to learn to

Brett Alegre-Wood 29:33

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 29:33
or to allow to provide more care you

Brett Alegre-Wood 29:38
notice the whole market goes boom I also want social care systems sitting there wondering hospital beds if you are older than 18 months,

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 29:48
so I've decided to allocate some adult social care which

Brett Alegre-Wood 29:53
can be a V 1.7 billion inflation so I'm

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 29:58
still gonna get in shape If combined with savings from the delay this is where we saw an increase in kill off all social care to 2.8 and 4.7 billion pounds a year after that's a big increase economic growth. But how are our most vulnerable citizens? It's not just a

Brett Alegre-Wood 30:22
reality issue it speaks to government

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 30:28
now allow the social care system or an estimator any government of any colour in history

Brett Alegre-Wood 30:42
during this honour? Yeah. And the sooner

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 30:46
happening has been increased. Okay, record less sooner we come out with a site. All right.

Brett Alegre-Wood 30:51
If you've got inflation and you'd like you get more defensive while you

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 30:59
let scandal over inflation, once we've gotten Singaporean efficiency, better outcomes for citizens, better value for taxpayers that I just said Singapore that does not mean interest are some people on the front line often exhausted and burned out to work harder, which would not be possible or fair. But it does mean asking challenging questions about how to reform all our public services for the better. So with respect to the NHS, I've asked former health secretary and chair of the Norfolk and Waverly integrated care system Patricia Hewitt, to help me and the Health Secretary achieve that by advising us on how to make sure the new integrated care boards the local NHS bodies efficiently with appropriate accountability, right. I've also had

Brett Alegre-Wood 32:00
very off the blood pressures on there but I recognise.

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 32:08
Very difficult. Today, I will not be of the next two years to 3.3 billion pounds. Chief Executive of the NHS Amanda Pritchard has said that this should provide sufficient funding for the NHS to fulfil its priorities. She said it shows the government is serious about its commitment to prioritise our NHS. 3.3 billion for the NHS 4.7 billion pounds for social care a record 8 billion pounds for health and care services see base. NHS

Brett Alegre-Wood 32:55
if you have a fear driven and

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 33:01
you're interested in Wales and Northern Ireland,

Brett Alegre-Wood 33:05
depression HMRC.

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 33:09
Today's foreign offices mean an extra 1.5 million pounds. The Scottish Government 1.2 billion pounds to the Welsh Government stopped 650 million pounds for the Northern Ireland executive terrible that is more resources for the hospitals in our devolved nations the year after and every year thereafter.

Brett Alegre-Wood 33:33
Really, it's only home office. And often social risk public service. No, we're saying

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 33:40
20 means that the site needing to find 8 billion in savings and tax rises going into

Brett Alegre-Wood 33:50
five years. All right.

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 33:52
But if we're going to sustain our public and avoid

Brett Alegre-Wood 33:56
a doom interesting austerity,

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 34:00
dynamism economic growth. So I now turn well, they've never been interested in growth but we on this side

Speaker of the House 34:22
have the most rowdy, get to the end of the budget stream and like the rest of the people of this country?

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 34:34
Thank you, Mr. Speaker. So let's start with a difficult message for the party office that you cannot borrow your way to grow. Sound sound money.

Brett Alegre-Wood 34:49
I've just been told I need to be a little bit louder.

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 34:51
sound money is the rock upon which long term prosperity rests on its own. Our plan is to designed to build a high wage, high wage, high skill economy that leads to long term

Brett Alegre-Wood 35:05
to austerity. I do love the sort of keywords buzzwords and SEO stuff but don't find that they've really worked very well. Because there's plenty of buzzwords. But then then what happens commitment is what your follow up and see what they actually achieved three further. That's where the discipline and

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 35:26
infrastructure and innovation, cheap, low carbon, reliable energy must sit at the heart of any

Brett Alegre-Wood 35:36
of this. But poor

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 35:39
realisation of international gas prices has helped drive the cost of our national energy consumption right up. This year, we'll be spending an extra 100 and 50 billion pounds on energy compared to pre pandemic levels equivalent to paying for an entire second NHS through our energy bills. That profit into Supply Company radically bankrupt our economy and harm our planet. Over the long term, there's only one way to stop ourselves being at the mercy of international gas prices, energy independence, combined with energy efficiency, and independence. So neither Putin nor anyone else can use energy to blackmail us. And energy efficiency to reduce demand and climate impact as much as possible.

Brett Alegre-Wood 36:35
So this is where EPCs are coming into their home to some degree, most people don't really know what they EPC energy performance study, it means offshore solar, to be fair, it does mean getting more efficient, new build properties actually starting to form well, and even some of the funders we talked about last time, why are we even giving discounts so high loan to value?

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 36:59
Knowledge is like offshore wind, carbon capture and storage? And above all new

Brett Alegre-Wood 37:03
if you didn't hear? Yes, UK is in recession.

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 37:06
You just announced that before will deliver new jobs

Brett Alegre-Wood 37:09
in which we find a new that anyway, we had a quarter already second quarter, which will end

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 37:16
we can already see that zero. So today I can announce I'm being told my mic with a new nuclear power. sighs Well,

Brett Alegre-Wood 37:25
hopefully that's fixed now. Guys, you just want to write in and tell me if you can hear me.

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 37:30
So the initial investment will be signed with relevance. I love my watch.

Brett Alegre-Wood 37:35
The message, guys again, can't hear me very well. But hopefully you can now hopefully, that's better.

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 37:41
And reliable loads to the equivalent of 6 million homes.

Brett Alegre-Wood 37:46
Look, I mean, we're just I'm just talking now for the sake because most of the stuff property investors is gone now. It's a pretty boring statement. To be fair, I thought there would be a little bit off cut. But I think actually now, the reality is, is that it's not too bad. I'll be told that it's all good now, which is great. So yeah, just summary for you guys that have just joined. And, you know, the really, we've got the threshold for tax, if you're earning 115. For now, that 45% starts at 125 140. So 125,000 140 pounds, you'll go to the 45% above that 50 pounds of not a big, huge difference. If it's not going to make that much of a difference for someone who isn't that you've got the tax free allowance, which is coming down, you've got the capital gains tax, which is also the left tackle the the tax free allowance is coming down over the next year there'll be 12,300 of that 6000 I'll be living doubling, and then 3000, the year after that. So that has that has a reasonable effect. Because remember, you're going to be probably 45% or 40% depending on where you're at. But your capital gains on that. So yes, that can make a big difference for my rifle paying an extra extra, say six grand 40% Six rounds, OR 40% or nine Rand makes a difference. Yeah. But look, guys, you know, apart from that, I think if the key here, the good positive news right now is rents are being driven up. Okay, so we're driving rents up. I know it's terrible for the tenants. And really what that's going to mean is if your income is fixed, you're going to have to move either put a bigger portion into your rent, or move to a lower quality further out area or a smaller property or whatever. That's just the reality. That's not about landlords being assholes. That's not about profiteering. That is the reality of the situation. Let's face it. landlords were also on a fixed income, unless you're getting more rent with increases, you're gonna be stuck, you know. So somehow you can't, you know, you got to find some money from somewhere. And rents rents are up, because obviously inflation. I mean, every year things like insurance are going up or less and stuff. So we're going to be really on top of that.

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 40:18
But not cutting a penny from our capital budgets in the next two years, and maintaining them at that level.

Brett Alegre-Wood 40:25
So they're spending up on capital, which capital works is important. When we talk about stimulating the economy and going into new build, one of the key things to do is spend money on capital projects. That's the time to fix roads, now in a recession, because that keeps the wheels turning, that keeps the money getting into the economy circulate through this is really important. So that's important. What else is he gonna say? Just looking down the bottom here, normally, we get the,

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 40:55
on their long term, rather than discard them for whatever reason is that because of this decision, alongside sighs, we'll see we will deliver the core northern powerhouse rail, just to to Manchester, and east west rail, and the new hospitals programme and gigabit broadband rollout.

Brett Alegre-Wood 41:15
So this is pretty good. I mean, high speed rail, billion pounds is lower now massively, you know, but that's what you expect. And unfortunately, it shouldn't be that way. But that happens, every capital expenditure, but the hospitals that honestly sounds great, but hospitals are no good if you don't have the nurses and doctors investment in infrastructure, schools and equity, if you don't have the teachers, you know, and let's face it, with a lot of the other things going on the woke culture, and all those sort of things, cross driving people out and with a Scottish Government, those industries. So let's see how that can deal with that. Just write down your hospital to work

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 41:57
and find a trade and investment event in Northern Ireland next year. But to unlock growth, so to unlock growth right across the country, we need to make it easier for local leaders to make things happen.

Brett Alegre-Wood 42:10
I agree, I think a local localizations Bluefin, like certain things, but you know what things like selective licences is ridiculous. You know, we mean, some, sometimes regulation is taken to find a new

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 42:27
devolution, will bring an elected mayor to Suffolk and deals to bring mayors to Cornwall, Norfolk,

Brett Alegre-Wood 42:33
so devised look, were at the tail end of this now, I don't know how long it's gonna. Progress is really nothing is coming out about property right now that I can see on any of the feeds, and I guess, to be fair, as a property investor, just to sort of summarise because let's face it, I'm gonna take any more of your time covered by D, I actually think that it's been pretty dull and boring. I mean, yes, if you're selling your property, pay more capital gains tax, the largest. So, yeah, I mean, but I think overall confidence. My This is one of my challenges. And I sort of mentioned alluded to this before, but this is one of the things my gut feel is, is they've been talking about this 50 to 55 billion pound hole innovation. I wonder if it is a real hole, or whether it's been whipped up into a storm because they can, and now they're coming in to resolve it. It's almost like, you know, let's create a shitstorm. And then let's fix it, even though there was no shitstorm there. So, you know, it's it's an interesting thing, where I wonder how much of this gap is real? Because let's face it, we weren't talking about this before this Trussell wasn't talking about this. Nobody is talking about it. lose trust, I think she was the shape of the land of the liberal slaughter. I think actually, she went with her lobbyists, mates and quasi went there to they said, Let's do this. Those guys set the money. They walked in hook line and sinker, you know? And basically, they made I imagined billion shorting the pound shorting the market, shorting that, you know, and then what do they do? Then they sit in I pointed the finger at them, you know, they're to blame. They're to blame. They're to blame. And then what did they do? They installed their billionaire mate in Rishi. I mean, let's see. Let's see what happens in the next two years. Three years, was it three years till the election? So

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 44:36
we learned from

Brett Alegre-Wood 44:39
SK has scares. I don't have the financial data yet. Welcome back again. Well, I think you know, so far, it's pretty boring for property investors. The one good thing I think about this is that we're not talking about a depression. We're not talking about a four year recession. chain, nobody's talking about double dipping. Now, most countries and most people are talking about that they can get it under control. And I think the key here is that as long as they don't let inflation go on for too long and go too high, that they need to raise so high that just kills off all demand, then we could be in a totally different situation. And that could change, you know, relatively quickly. At this stage. I'm not seeing that, yes, our inflation is going up. But this is the thing. If you look at the US inflation, the US inflation has actually decreased now has started to come down. So the pressure on their interest rates has come down. And that's not because they're doing better than us. That's because they've gone into summer, whereas we've gone into winter. So now because the energy's has gone up so much. That's what's causing a lot of inflation. Well, what happens in March next year? Well, okay. The April could be made, could be June, you know, when it starts to get warmer, but we're talking yeah, let's get this sort of spring, April next year, where it starts to get warmer, significantly warmer, then we'll start turning our heaters off. Well, then you're going to see, I think inflation about so as much as they predicted inflation managed to drop quite dramatically in June. I think we may actually see more in probably April. So interest rates wise, we potentially will see more increases through to march, maybe February, will it all depends on how much we go out and spend Christmas, how much we spend. So let's see how we go. But I think this is

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 46:36
an the latest.

Brett Alegre-Wood 46:39
It's a recession, you know, so a recession is never good. I think the key here is to look at your own self, and look and see whether you can afford to lose your job. You know, we talked about these, we talked about running scenarios, and one of the scenarios we talked about is what happens if you lose your job. What happens if you lose your job, but you can't get another job for three months. And when you do get the next job, it's of 70% of what you're earning, you can't use survive. And if you can survive. That's a really what I call realistic worst case. And I think when you play realistic workspace with these sort of things, it gives you the confidence that even if you lose your job, you're okay. So that's one of the things the other thing is what happens if how spot I mean, the worst prediction that I've seen is house prices dropping 30%. Three, the reality is most experts now talking to five to 10. And in fact, that's in areas that really aren't the best fundamentals. No, five is probably London. So and I think we'll see like a boom. So you know, so I think the reality is, if you can see that, even if house prices drop, if you can hold us, yeah, then you're fine. And you know, we talked about mortgage cost averaging 6%. If your mortgage cost average, in other words, you act as if your mortgage is 6%, throughout the whole level of ownership. So some of the times it's going to be less than that sometimes is going to be more than that, when it's more sorry, when it's less, you put some money away, when it's more for you use the money that you've put away as provision, then actually, you don't have to worry about things like that. Now, if you've got a great income, you know, your job secure, you're in a market is actually doing really well. Fantastic, you probably don't need to worry about that move as much. But you know, we've had interest rates very low for a while. And I think the key here, one of the figures, actually, if you haven't done it already, you know, I've been saying this for weeks now, try to maintain this, you know, sit down, get your numbers, right, do portfolio review, and just make sure you can survive through the worst of it, I think the worst of it is going to be between now and probably you know, that March April time time, where things will start to settle down, that may means people losing their jobs, one of them you know, so you may may be made redundant, that may mean that interest rates are gonna go up, that may mean in the cost of obviously heating and that sort of stuff is gonna go up. So play with those numbers. Now, don't be an E News to get in the sand. Right? Because the problem is sticking your head in the sand is that you end up getting a kick up the ass. So just don't don't work in numbers. Now know your numbers. And if your numbers don't work now or what you predicted, then make some decisions now make some changes. Now if you have to sell and you have to jettison off some of your portfolio or you've got to do something that you've just got to do that. You've got to make that decision. The sooner you make it better. It's the other thing is you can sit there and stress and worrying about what might happen to enable. Or you can do the numbers and see what's actually or what could happen and have the numbers in front of you. You can manage. You can what what do you measure you can measure which I've managed to measure measure metrics. You know what I mean? You can't manage what you haven't measured. Alright, so get there in a measure work out where you're at and that way you can come up with strategies and measure it. And of course, if you need help with that, then send us an email, you know, supported And, you know, we're more than happy to talk you through options and scenarios and those sort of things. Yeah, you know, I think there's actually a blog article that I've got, which actually calculates this stuff, you have a downloadable spreadsheet, you put your fingers in, and you work out where you're at, or we've got the two year cash flow worksheet, you can work out all your numbers and see where you're at, you can also increase the interest rates and see what they'll be all sorts of things like that. Now, these tools are out there for many, so use them to give you certainty.

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 50:37
This governor will cap the increase in social rents to a maximum of seven Yep, so

Brett Alegre-Wood 50:42
he's still talking stuff that I don't think has anything to do with this. I mean, if I've missed a few things while me talking, then find out later. But to be fair, the big stuff is always stop this government. I mean, really, this is the kind of sales pitch. It's, look, it's austerity to a degree, it doesn't sound. And this is what why I say I don't think the 55 being buffed out is actually is a reality, I think is a shitstorm. They created the vacant resolver. But they look to commission. And the reason I think that is because a lot of these things they're talking about for me, it's not really doesn't it doesn't feel like austerity, not like was 10 years ago, 14 years ago, you know, what it was kind of like, oh, this is austerity. They're cutting and cutting deep, you know? And there's no, you know, there's no end date. You know, we had it for 10 years. And then not only that, then we bloody went into Brexit, then we had tax changes, then we had the COVID. You know, and then, you know, in between all that we had five different four different Prime

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 51:58
Ministers representation, I

Brett Alegre-Wood 52:00
lost count, we've had 12 different housing ministers and

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 52:03

Brett Alegre-Wood 52:06
How can you get anything done in life, if you can't keep, you know, a person in a position to make

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 52:11
the most fun? Look,

Brett Alegre-Wood 52:14
I think that's pretty much the only news coming out, it's all pretty much the same. So actually, yeah, if anything this autumn statement, probably misses dodged a bullet, you know, suddenly, really, if you're selling, you're going to be affected hugely in or if you're earning, you know, over 125,000 The market. pay more. And really, it's the 150 mark people because they haven't 25 is still saying,

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 52:46
yes, the number of households households,

Brett Alegre-Wood 52:48
so that's quite good.

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor) 52:50
Also, exceptionally Yeah. Okay.

Brett Alegre-Wood 52:54
I think I keep talking all night, which are often do, but I think I'm going to cut it there. Because we've been going for a few minutes. And I think actually, it's probably time to end up. Yeah, so I think thanks for joining us. And, yeah, I think it's a good outcome for property investors. Nothing really too bad there. If anything, that is good news, with their predictions about the recession, that we are in already. Okay, so it's so you must have set official now, even though, really, it probably needs to be the end of the quarter before it's official. But, you know, acknowledging now, I think is the right thing to do. The sooner you acknowledge the issue, the sooner you can address it, I think this does address it. Of course, but yeah, we'll, we'll track it and see how things pan out. But actually, I'm feeling a lot better actually. Because there's always you know, and in my position where I'm talking about economics, and politics, and all that sort of stuff, it's very easy to become really negative, become really positive. Or even sometimes you sitting there going, I think this is what's going to happen. But this could also happen. And this could also happen. You know, it could be really, really bad, or it could be really, really good. And I think to be fair. I was into thoughts of turning off anyway. I was in two minds, one mine was this could be really bad. You know, and fully. If this is really bad, this could be you know, horrible. Or it could be, you know, okay, not much difference. I didn't think it was going to be fantastic for us. I didn't think that for a second. But actually, to be fair. What's come out of this is that, yeah, it's actually been on the better side of it than the worse, you know, certainly not the bad side. So I'm feeling pretty good now. And I think as property investors, we've dodged a bullet. And I think to be fair, things are looking pretty good. And I think our property values in good areas with good fundamentals are going to be quite good. And when I say quite good, they're not going to drop off too much. I think if you're in city areas over time, they're not going to change. They're still shady areas, and they're gonna be shitty areas. And the fundamentals, the investment, the regeneration there, none of that is going to be there. You know. So if you invest in those areas, you're probably going to have capital growth, or sorry, the income, but you're not going to get the capital growth anymore. You know, I mean, I remember when we first I first started, probably from my first 20 years in property, it was probably doubles every seven or 10 years. It's the biggest assumption, but it was an assumption that everybody talks about. That isn't the case anymore. And I don't believe that anymore, at all, ever, you know? And I think the reason I don't is because yes, it applies in certain areas like London, Manchester, Birmingham, and some of these areas that are getting a huge amount of investment, but a lot of other areas, you know, are crap. And they're just going to be, you know, into the ground, if you like, Yeah, they'll still exist. But with ageing population, and all those sort of demographics in that, yeah. So it looks like always gonna be pat on the back. There's and

Speaker of the House 56:04
Prime Minister and his colleague in the treasury, it's now time to hear Rachel Reese for labour, the shadow Chancellor

Rachel Reese 56:13
made that statement. So here we are the end of 2022. Three Prime Ministers for Chancellor's and four budgets later, where do we find ourselves in a worse place than we started the year? Inflation spiralling growth, plunging, living standards falling? Mr. Speaker, Britain is a great country with fantastic strengths. Because of this government's mistakes, we are being held back. What people will be asking themselves,

Brett Alegre-Wood 56:54
I agree with this, guys, I think we are being held back by this government better off with it, but I don't think Labour would have done any better. I think there's a there's a fundamental problem with the system. And and I think for me, you know, that's the real issue here is it's not about labour or conservatives. It's not about you know, whatever. There's a fundamental problem with the system. And that is the system, no longer democracy. As we all grew up, believing in no longer exists, what there is a really elite, they're not interested in the people really, they're interested in staying in power. You know, and yet, look, maybe after 2030 years of what is it now 30 years of doing economics, and I've just become jilted with it, you know, maybe maybe, that's just the way it is. And maybe I'm saying that I think there's so many fantastic things happening in life, you know, but when you look at politics, that's not one of them, you know, so that yeah, I was gonna listen to her, but to be fair, utterly uninspiring and it's consequential, you know, so I think they're just gonna respond and be negative and shout and deer and that sort of thing. So anyway, guys. I know I should give equal labour and liberal Labour and Conservatives, but you know what, no, can't be bothered or better things to do. On a yes. FJ grab a coffee and get better work. But hey, guys, so thanks for joining us. And we'll see you again on the next day. Yeah, so actually, if you want to join the live stream, every Wednesday 1230 on my customer, YouTube channels, Facebook's and all the social media, or you can just go to GLAD fish forward slash dashboard. You will have to be signed in though to get the live stream and we have some other other stuff that I add on there too. So that's probably the best place to look at it. Alright guys, thank you very much, and we'll see you next week. Bye.

Brett Alegre-wood
November 17, 2022

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