UK House Prices fall to beat stamp duty deadline

Brett Alegre-Wood
December 4, 2020

UK House Prices are starting to fall but don't be worried 

UK House Prices are expected to fall. Last October by half a percent and it will continue to fall but not so much. In some areas might be better than the others it all depends on the area's where businesses are sustained.

UK House prices begun to fall as sellers scramble to beat stamp duty deadline.

What's happening here with UK House Prices is that you know and we're talking about half a percent fell in October you know. The bottom line with this is that the supply line is overworked you know and I think that's the problem if you put a massive demand in the supply just can't pick up very quickly. It's very quick to put the demand back but the supply takes some time, you know solicitors all that sort of stuff. 

UK House prices you know are starting to fall, we expected this I'm not even worried about it right now. I was expecting it. I'm also predicting it's interesting because a few people are starting to predict house prices are going to go up next year. I'm still sticking to my -3% next year. I think some areas will do better, some areas will do worse you know and it depends on what happens in those areas with the businesses that sustain the employment in those areas is to see how they go.

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It's a very different market in Scotland, it's a smaller market. There's some fundamental changes namely oil and gas with all the issues there and that I know Aberdeen and a few of those places house prices have dropped considerably. So, it 

Let's look at unemployment because I think this is one of the key things too that I really like and I think is important. If you have a look at this graph this graph is literally 25 years but it's more than 25 years actually it's I put it on the max. So you can see where we are right now we're at about what we're at 4.8% now if you have a look that is we've not been that low okay all the ways you know in the 80s sorry the 90s the 80s and you know you've got to get back to the 70s before you see that.

Even at 4.8% that is still quite low now will it increase yeah you know it possibly could and i think it will still increase. But look where it went in the last recession you know it got up to 8.3% or 8.4% I think it was. You know we've still got double the amount of people who have to become unemployed before we're even at the last recessions level and that is the power of that furlough system and that is the power of the universal credit system and that's the power of of all these this money that government's spending you know it really has made a bloody difference.

I think in 20 years time when we look back and we go oh but that was supposed to be the great depression and we say no no the great depression we raised interest rates we put soaked up all the money and there was nothing going around so everything stopped and we went into a deflationary period. This time if anything what we've done is rather than go into the deflation we've added the money to it which has kept everything afloat and I think that's the good thing.

Liam's got The lack of supply when the stamp duty ends, will uphold prices or like you say they will still rise in high demand places.

I think right now you know there's a lot of pent-up demand. There were a lot of opportunistic buying people who wanted to get on a ladder you know and a lot of that you know that will naturally come to an end now as the stamp duty kicks back in. 

Do I think UK House Prices are going to fall off the cliff once stamped stamp street ends? no, I don't you know I mean very few I've spoken to have bought because the stamp duty. They were buying anyway they were you know pushing and pushing and pushing and what happened was they decided that you know what I'm sick of living in my little flat. I want to go and  buy my house. I want to go to the next stage in my life and that's been a big motivator. So I think prices will uphold and I think actually certainly in London we're seeing London is already starting to you know tick back and kick back and it feels like now London like it did when we started going you know into the East and South you know Southeast of London and doing the regeneration sites there and investing there. It feels the same now as that we're going into the West and the North.

A lot of the property we're getting now is more that focused than it is that side focus. We still have some stuff on that side but it's feeling like whereas London since 2016 has been subdued now things are starting to creep back which I think is you know a good thing for London and i think that that also is the same with a lot of the other places as well. 

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Do you think this bull run of the property market will continue into 2021 with the end of stamp duty holiday? Do I think it will continue? I think it's going to slow down over winter but I think things will pick up next year. I don't think the unemployment rate because I wasn't sure before when they had the JSS the new so they went from furlough to JSS yeah but then they cut the JSS and extended the furlough now they've done that i actually think a lot of the jobs um are going to be saved the ones that are going to go and that have to go will be the ones that need to go.

In industries that have been disrupted you know areas that just haven't got the fundamentals you know in businesses that aren't keeping up with the time. So if you're in a business you know if you work for a business that's going to be disrupted you know you've got to really think about that. You know you're probably better to jump now and find somewhere else that's already pivoting to the new norm if you like. If you own a business and you haven't you know you're putting your head in the sand thinking oh this is great because I've got all this furlough money coming in no, no, now is the time you need to be sitting there going right how do we need to pivot what are other people doing what are some of the good ideas how can i integrate some of this technology put stuff online and that sort of stuff.

You have to do it. You know sitting there going oh no my business is fine you know something somewhere is going to come up and it's going across the head and you know you'll lose that business or you'll get you know you'll lose that job that is what's going to be happening. I mean let's face it if we look you know if you look at some of the studies of what AI and what technology is going to do to the the employment market we're talking about 40% of somewhere between 12% and 49% but most people are saying around about 40% is a sort of upper limit. Which is a huge you know that's 40% of jobs are going to either be made redundant or changed significantly in that period you know which is that's a massive change and that's you know that's starting to happen now. This great reset that the you know world economic forum is talking about you know what they're talking about is you know looking at the way things we do things now and and almost timetable is sped up you know because let's face it climate change I don't care what anyone says you know the science is pretty robust that we are screwing the planet and we're the reason for it but you know we've got a window for it and I love David Attenborough's latest thing you know we watched it the other day.

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Video Transcription

House prices begun to fall as sellers scramble to beat stamp duty deadline.

What's happening here with this is that you know and we're talking about half a percent fell in October you know. The bottom line with this is that the supply line is overworked you know and I think that's the problem if you put a massive demand in the supply just can't pick up very quickly. It's very quick to put the demand back but the supply takes some time, you know solicitors all that sort of stuff.  House prices you know are starting to fall, we expected this I'm not even worried about it right now. I was expecting it. I'm also predicting it's interesting because a few people are starting to predict house prices are going to go up next year. I'm still sticking to my -3% next year. I think some areas will do better, some areas will do worse you know and it depends on what happens in those areas with the businesses that sustain the employment in those areas is to see how they go. Let's look at unemployment because I think this is one of the key things too that I really like and I think is important. If you have a look at this graph this graph is literally 25 years but it's more than 25 years actually it's I put it on the max. So you can see where we are right now we're at about what we're at 4.8% now if you have a look that is we've not been that low okay all the ways you know in the 80s sorry the 90s the 80s and you know you've got to get back to the 70s before you see that. Even at 4.8% that is still quite low now will it increase yeah you know it possibly could and i think it will still increase. But look where it went in the last recession you know it got up to 8.3% or 8.4% I think it was. You know we've still got double the amount of people who have to become unemployed before we're even at the last recessions level and that is the power of that furlough system and that is the power of the universal credit system and that's the power of of all these this money that government's spending you know it really has made a bloody difference. I think in 20 years time when we look back and we go oh but that was supposed to be the great depression and we say no no the great depression we raised interest rates we put soaked up all the money and there was nothing going around so everything stopped and we went into a deflationary period. This time if anything what we've done is rather than go into the deflation we've added the money to it which has kept everything afloat and I think that's the good thing. Liam's got The lack of supply when the stamp duty ends, will uphold prices or like you say they will still rise in high demand places. I think right now you know there's a lot of pent-up demand. There were a lot of opportunistic buying people who wanted to get on a ladder you know and a lot of that you know that will naturally come to an end now as the stamp duty kicks back in. Do I think we're going to fall off the cliff once stamped stamp street ends? no, I don't you know I mean very few I've spoken to have bought because the stamp duty. They were buying anyway they were you know pushing and pushing and pushing and what happened was they decided that you know what I'm sick of living in my little flat. I want to go buy my house. I want to go to the next stage in my life and that's been a big motivator. So I think prices will uphold and I think actually certainly in London we're seeing London is already starting to you know tick back and kick back and it feels like now London like it did when we started going you know into the East and South you know Southeast of London and doing the regeneration sites there and investing there. It feels the same now as that we're going into the West and the North. A lot of the property we're getting now is more that focused than it is that side focus. We still have some stuff on that side but it's feeling like whereas London since 2016 has been subdued now things are starting to creep back which I think is you know a good thing for London and i think that that also is the same with a lot of the other places as well. Do you think this bull run of the property market will continue into 2021 with the end of stamp duty holiday? Do I think it will continue? I think it's going to slow down over winter but I think things will pick up next year. I don't think the unemployment rate because I wasn't sure before when they had the JSS the new so they went from furlough to JSS yeah but then they cut the JSS and extended the furlough now they've done that i actually think a lot of the jobs um are going to be saved the ones that are going to go and that have to go will be the ones that need to go. In industries that have been disrupted you know areas that just haven't got the fundamentals you know in businesses that aren't keeping up with the time. So if you're in a business you know if you work for a business that's going to be disrupted you know you've got to really think about that. You know you're probably better to jump now and find somewhere else that's already pivoting to the new norm if you like. If you own a business and you haven't you know you're putting your head in the sand thinking oh this is great because I've got all this furlough money coming in no, no, now is the time you need to be sitting there going right how do we need to pivot what are other people doing what are some of the good ideas how can i integrate some of this technology put stuff online and that sort of stuff. You have to do it. You know sitting there going oh no my business is fine you know something somewhere is going to come up and it's going across the head and you know you'll lose that business or you'll get you know you'll lose that job that is what's going to be happening. I mean let's face it if we look you know if you look at some of the studies of what AI and what technology is going to do to the the employment market we're talking about 40% of somewhere between 12% and 49% but most people are saying around about 40% is a sort of upper limit. Which is a huge you know that's 40% of jobs are going to either be made redundant or changed significantly in that period you know which is that's a massive change and that's you know that's starting to happen now. This great reset that the you know world economic forum is talking about you know what they're talking about is you know looking at the way things we do things now and and almost timetable is sped up you know because let's face it climate change I don't care what anyone says um you know the science is pretty robust that we are screwing the planet and we're the reason for it but you know we've got a window for it and I love David Attenborough's latest thing you know we watched it the other day. Guys thank you very much and appreciate your time and we'll see you next week any anything else you've got send through to the webinars@galdfish.com or check out the website www.gladfish.com and we'll see you next week thank you very much all right see you guys bye


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