UK Inflation in 2021

Brett Alegre-Wood
December 5, 2020

UK Inflation in 2021, Is it going to continue to climb?

UK Inflation in 2021 will it continue to climb? Should I be worried? What are the implications of inflation for us?

UK Inflation, do you think it will continue to climb? Do I think it will continue to climb?

UK Inflation in 2021, I don't think so over the winter months I think if anything it'll start to pull off a bit. The only thing is obviously heating goes up but a few of those sort of bills are also affected because remember inflation is a basket of goods and so if they're using more energy the demand for energy goes up the price goes up you know so that's a big one. But then we're locked down so we're not using as much petrol which is in there as well so you know realistically we think inflation is going to go up.

I think there are different types of inflation. Wages i don't think are going up I think wages if anything will be coming down we'll see that might be wrong. I think the production costs and things like that are going to be going up because perhaps there's less staff to do it you know there's a whole range of things so there's you know the reality is right now I wouldn't be worried about what's happening with inflation because there's so many other factors. And I don't think it's certainly not going to run away yet you know there is a potential that there is a runaway situation coming later on but I still don't see that. 

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It's a very different market in Scotland, it's a smaller market. There's some fundamental changes namely oil and gas with all the issues there and that I know Aberdeen and a few of those places house prices have dropped considerably. So, it 

Bottom line is we have increased the money supply by 40% in a short space of time which is a massive, massive increase and historically that would have said you know what that's going to lead to massive inflation. But you know if that is actually keeping the economy going then actually that's good for the economy. The other side of it is remember even though we increase the 40%, interest rates are so low now that the repayment on that is very affordable for governments.

And I think that's one of the key things that will really actually play out here. We'll see that the other side of it is technology is taking us over. I mean it really is starting to advance in advance and that technology by its nature is deflationary. So as we move more to a high-tech you know IT environment that causes the deflation of things too. Do I think it will climb I'm not worried about inflation you know and the simple rule I use is I look at the the fixed interest rates that I can get on a mortgage over 2 years, 5 years and 10 years and if it's going up like this then I know where interest rates are going up if it's kind of creeping up slowly then you know I'm not too worried, you know that's kind of what I'd expect and guess what it's doing creeping up very slowly.

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Video Transcription

I read the inflations up, do you think it will continue to climb? Do I think it will continue to climb?

I don't think so over the winter months I think if anything it'll start to pull off a bit. The only thing is obviously heating goes up but a few of those sort of bills are also affected because remember inflation is a basket of goods and so if they're using more energy the demand for energy goes up the price goes up you know so that's a big one. But then we're locked down so we're not using as much petrol which is in there as well so you know realistically we think inflation is going to go up. I think there are different types of inflation. Wages i don't think are going up I think wages if anything will be coming down we'll see that might be wrong. I think the production costs and things like that are going to be going up because perhaps there's less staff to do it you know there's a whole range of things so there's you know the reality is right now I wouldn't be worried about what's happening with inflation because there's so many other factors. And I don't think it's certainly not going to run away yet you know there is a potential that there is a runaway situation coming later on but I still don't see that. Bottom line is we have increased the money supply by 40% in a short space of time which is a massive, massive increase and historically that would have said you know what that's going to lead to massive inflation. But you know if that is actually keeping the economy going then actually that's good for the economy. The other side of it is remember even though we increase the 40%, interest rates are so low now that the repayment on that is very affordable for governments. And I think that's one of the key things that will really actually play out here. We'll see that the other side of it is technology is taking us over. I mean it really is starting to advance in advance and that technology by its nature is deflationary. So as we move more to a high-tech you know IT environment that causes the deflation of things too. Do I think it will climb I'm not worried about inflation you know and the simple rule I use is I look at the the fixed interest rates that I can get on a mortgage over 2 years, 5 years and 10 years and if it's going up like this then I know where interest rates are going up if it's kind of creeping up slowly then you know I'm not too worried, you know that's kind of what I'd expect and guess what it's doing creeping up very slowly. Guys thank you very much and appreciate your time and we'll see you next week any anything else you've got send through to the webinars@gladfish.com or check out the website www.gladfish.com and we'll see you next week thank you very much all right see you guys bye


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