UK Property News – 08 Sep 2018

Video Transcription: 

Hey, guys. This week's Property News, I'm coming to you from Leeds city centre, just amazing things happening here. And it's just the river and the canals actually, but basically, this week, amazing things. I was actually expecting house prices to come down and the reports from all this to come out and say house prices down. But what's actually come out of that is that they're not coming down, they've actually gone up year-on-year 3.7%, which is great news. You know, it means that things aren't as devastating as possible. Well, actually, things are looking pretty good. And when I say pretty good, that's balanced against the fact that, yeah, Brexit and all those sorts of things.

But I think the important thing here really is the reason that the house prices have increased is because of the supply and demand. You know, people are not having to sell up their properties. And because they're not having to sell their properties, there are not the properties coming on the market, therefore there's less choice for those that wanna buy. And so, you know, I mean, we're noticing too with a lot of developers still aren't giving what I consider the prices that I want. So there's some of the stuff that I go, "You know what? I'd like that," but they're just not being flexible enough. So we just haven't been doing it.

But, you know, I think that's a real key because it's all great to say, "You know, things are really bad and Brexit is really bad," but the reality is actually, you know, when you've got prices going up, and look, even if they're not going up tremendously, they're certainly not dropping down. And I think, you know, when you look at it on balance, I think the media's got a lot to answer for. And, you know, I've said this too often really, but I think, you know, if we had a situation where, you know, there's some real reporting and some real seriousness, I mean, it's interesting these are Halifax figures, we'll probably find that you know, the Nationwide figures will come out, the Land Registry figures will come out, and they may paint a slightly different picture, you know. So it's not necessarily, you know, all good news and it's not...well, it's good news in that things aren't dropping away.

And, you know, here's a prediction, based on all my evidence, based on everything I'm seeing and based on everything I'm reading and people I'm speaking to, you know, and these are guys in the game and these are people that I've known for many years who just aren't swayed by the emotions and by the headlines, you know, they're actually guys in the market and investing millions of pounds, whether that be on behalf of themselves or behalf of companies, and I think the key really is that you know, they're actually not that worried. You know, they're not seeing things [inaudible 00:02:24]. And I have to agree. You know, I had this uneasy feeling, when you read the headlines and they talk about Brexit, you know, no-deal Brexit being so bad, I really think they're more political statements that they are actually real, good economic statements. Because at every turn, you know, things have been showing they're actually pretty damn good, rather than, you know, pretty damn bad, you know. Yeah, it's an amazing thing really. You know, it's not amazing, it's actually obvious, you know. And I think that's the what people are taken into this.

Hi, guys. So the next story, I'm actually...well, I'm up in Leeds today but I'm not gonna talk about that because if you happen to look outside, it's about terrible weather. But I'm gonna be talking about Australia because...

So Australia has had a boom time for near on 20 years. In fact, I think the last...well, I think the last price drops were way back in 2012. But even before that, there hasn't been a recession. So they've had things actually really, really pretty good. And the interesting thing is is that, you know, they're talking about the mortgage restrictions now, and, you know, the mortgage restrictions are the kind of thing that has affected that. But the reality is if you transpose what's happened to Australia and you look at the UK and you look at the mortgage restrictions, the tax changes, you look at Brexit and the effect of that, you know, and you look at all these things that are really constraining the market, actually, the market is still performing bloody well. And I have to say, you know, these people who say, "Oh, you know, London property is gone, UK property, oh, don't invest in there anymore," I think they're freaking idiots.

And to be fair, I think in three years' time when Brexit is sort of out and sorted, and we've sorted and whether we do it or don't or whether there's a dog's breakfast or whatever, it doesn't matter, once we're through that, I think people will start to see, "Oh, S-H-I-T, I should have actually stayed in property, and I should have actually doubled down and probably, you know, really..." I mean, I'm not saying don't restructure your portfolio, I think you have to restructure for more cash flow and I think that's one of the keys here, but I think, you know, people are walking around as if to say, "You know, property has ended," and it hasn't.

And I can tell you, and that's one of the guarantees that I can give you is that property has not ended, property is still massive, you know. I mean, you know, there's so much opportunity, but the thing is, with all these restrictions, you know, imagine if we didn't have those restrictions. Wow, that would be quite scary how much the price would have grown. So, you know, the government really, what they've done is they're pulling this money out in taxes and all sorts of things, you know, and really, that's what's been keeping it down. So yeah.

So next article is just on Brexit. So, you know, Brexit, the interesting thing is, you know, we've seen the first sign of a change or a back down in, you know, the EU, which is quite interesting. Barnier, basically, when we first saw, when EU first set out their position, it was like, "Right, let's negotiate the bill. Once we negotiate the bill and we agree then you sign off on that, then we'll talk about future prospects and that." And, you know, that was adamant. And we folded in and we agreed to that. But it now appears that they've actually been open to the fact that, "No, you know what? We will attach that to that so it becomes one," which is quite good. Sort of a bit of realism is starting to come into the negotiations.

But by the same token, yeah, Barnier had a nice little swipe at Raab, basically just because he was posting figures about Ireland because they wanna know from Ireland into Northern Ireland or Belfast basically how much goods was transferring, and they didn't have the data. My suggestion would be that maybe the data wasn't perfect or, you know they're playing the negotiation game. But I think, you know, to be fair, for me, no deal or deal doesn't really matter, you know, get yourself in a position that you're okay with whichever way, you know, and then just watch out for the opportunities. Because there's gonna be huge opportunities. You know, wherever there's a crisis there's opportunity, you know, and that's what you've got to look for now and that's what you're really gonna be watching out for.

I think people are saying, "Oh, I'm out of the market, you know, I'm jumping out. I'm gonna wait and see if it will all wash over." And you sit around your hands for three years. And you know what's gonna happen? In three years' time, there'll be another thing and there'll be another thing and another thing and you know what? A decade will be gone and you'll be sitting there, you know, nothing happened.

Two final things, I said Jeremy Corbyn. I haven't done anything with Jeremy Corbyn, but what I've done, I've got two interviews this week and next weekend with people who actually are right on...they're actually behind Jeremy Corbyn. And I thought it'd be quite interesting to sit down and actually pick their brains. And so they haven't agreed to an interview as an on video, but they're more than happy for me to chat to them and, you know, so I get a really good one step side of the argument. So I'm looking forward to that. And I'll definitely be doing that in the next few weeks. Unless he gets kicked out of his leadership because some of the moderates, you know, the centre sort of lefts Labor things are now really starting to kick back.

One final thing, we talked about Boris Johnson, you know, possibly early for PM. Well, you know, let's see what happens now. He's just appears that he's been caught with a mistress or potentially allegedly. Who knows if it's true? But also that his wife...he's getting divorced from his wife. But it may well be that he was with his wife, they're divorced or they've separated and now he's got a new thing, so, you know, it's okay, he'll probably get away with that. You know, we'll see what happens.

But anyway, guys, that's it for this week from Leeds, and I'll see you next week.

Brett Alegre-Wood
September 8, 2018

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