Hey, guys. So welcome to, well, live, my first live outing for the Property News. So I'm gonna be doing this every week now because I think you know, going to live saves a lot of editing time, saves a lot, you know, I put more time into researching. But the great thing is, you know, the technology now is you can do this and it's fantastic, you can put it on multiple platforms. So, yeah. So if something's gone wrong, I will work it out and do it for next week. But I'm yes, so first time here and now, yeah, welcome.
So this week in Property News. Actually to be fair it's again a mixed bag. You know, we had the first article was, you know, basically saying that London prices dipped lowest they've been in nine years, you know, and really it's been one of these things where, you know, how do you read this? I mean, look, the cyclical style of the market is just, for me, forget all the white noise that's in the background. The real key here is the fact that it is a cyclical market. London, prime central London has gone up and gone up incredibly, and now it's sort of tapered off a bit, but now what you seeing is it actually starting to come back. Which is what you would expect, it's exactly what you'd expect from a cyclical market. I think that's the key here. You know, we can all sit here and say, "Oh, Brexit this and, you know, tax changes this and mortgage restrictions this and all the things that are going on." But the reality is, it is actually, what we're looking at for the most part is, you know, a cyclical market from there, you know.
So, you know, got this article here which is, you know, house prices dip for leading, you know, late summer sale if you like. You know, what you gotta realise with this dip, okay, this is The Office of National Statistics, you know, that have come out and basically said, "Yep, they've dropped to a, you know, nine-year low since 2009, you know, the worst since they've been." The reality is it's cyclical, okay. We expect this. There's nothing here that's untoward. All right. And, you know, as much as they wanna make it out as being something separate and something different, it's just not, you know. And look, the reality is a lot more people are now, some get worried about Brexit and what's gonna happen so we're seeing more inquiries about sales. You know what? They are the people that you are gonna be able to take opportunity of because they're happy to sell, and they're happy, well they're not probably happy, but they're gonna get rid of it and they're gonna accept a discount so we're actually going in at lower prices now. So if you are buying and you're in the market, you can demand a better price. Now, if you're not demanding a better price, well, get your head screwed on and, you know, learn how to negotiate.
The reality is the bargains are starting to be out there. But, okay, now I'm talking about London here, you know. And look, there's so much negative going on, but look, the reality is, you know, "Mark Carney's Worst Case Scenario," now, a 35% drop effectively he predicted. Worst case, okay. But now all the articles have come out, and he said that last week is when I was talking about it. Now, that all the articles come out saying it's highly unlikely. And you know what? I think it's, you know, I don't see it happening. I don't see the scenario where that happening unless it really is worst-case scenario and everything happens, you know, that could, the worst possible thing that could happen in every respect, you know. I just don't see that and certainly not in the London market which I see for the last three or four years has been tapering off, you know. Even though you may be looking there and reading the newspapers thinking that, "Oh, no. But it's only just started dropping you know, six months ago or something." That's rubbish, okay. We've been negotiating better prices for last three or four years depending on where you look at.
In fact, now there's very little stock in prime central London so actually, the developers the people were dealing with aren't prepared to negotiate. They can hold on to it. You know, they're not concerned about rising interest rates too much, they're not concerned about Brexit too much because everything negative that had been said about Brexit actually turns out to be, you know, it hasn't been that bad actually. So it's one of these sort of things where you, you know, you've got really wonder, you know, is it likely to have worst case scenario? I just don't see it and, you know, I don't see it in any stretch of the imagination right now. Okay. You know, we can look at, you know, the alternative which is house prices return to growth amid signs, you know, of London recovery. Hold on a sec, you know. We're predicting a third drop and we're predicting that, you know, worst house prices in nine years, and yet another article comes out? Why? Because this is a different measure. That was The Office of National Statistics, this is Rightmove. So you can look at this and sort of say "Well, hold on. Who do I believe? What's the truth?" You know, and this is the problem with the media and when you read newspapers and you only read the headline. Okay. I can show you every week a positive and a negative headline, just have. Okay. You've got to get over that and you've got to realise that this is the game they play to sell the newspaper, to grab your eyeballs, which is all they want okay.
Now, you know, the reality is that if you go outside London, what you're gonna see in Birmingham, and Manchester, and even Leeds and places like this, and I'm talking cities and, you know, I'm now sort of talking about the fact that we used to have one world city in the UK which was London. Okay. We've now got three, which is Manchester, and Birmingham. Okay. You know, you look at the direct flights coming in, you look at the investment coming, you look at all the things that are happening, and really that's where your investment dollars or pounds should be going because they are world cities.The fundamentals there are so fantastic and, you know, I've been walking the streets, you know, recently, I mean, the last sort of six months in these places. And it's amazing how much is going on there and I think that's the key to all of this is just what's going on. The investment going in, the properties being built, the universities expansion, the medical, the, you know, all this sort of thing that's happening, you know. It's not just lots and lots of properties being built. The reality is step outside into the towns, and this is what I think the cities are stealing from the towns because the youth don't want to stay there, there's nothing for them. So what's happening? They're moving into the cities, they're going to university in the cities, they're staying around the cities, but then they're not going back home so their mum and dad are left there to age and what you're getting is the aging population, you know, that those baby boomers that are approaching retirement and at retirement that now are gonna get older and what happens, the investments stop there, there's no reason for property to increase in capital. So realistically, should you be investing there? No. I recommend not. Okay.
So it's an interesting thing because I think, you know, this whole game is a cyclical game. You know, right now the game is, if you look at it, you know, London, you know, yeah. You might say, "Well, actually I don't wanna invest here. I wanna wait until Brexit happens." Right? You know, no problems. The reality is you might miss some bargains because by the time you do get in and by the time everyone realises that actually, it's not as bad, you'll probably find that you know what? It's actually back to being a pretty good market and you've already missed out on those bargains, you know. But when you go to Manchester and you go, you know, Birmingham, those again are cyclical markets. And right now they're doing really well and things are looking really good. And right now, you know, I mean, certain areas in some of those areas I'm thinking, "You know what? Prices are starting to get a bit up." But there's plenty of other bargains and opportunities, you know. So you might just not look in the city center, you might go a little bit further out, you know. Not too far out. I'm not talking about getting way out of town. What I'm talking about is you find where the fundamentals are changing and that's where you look to invest. So, you know, that's really, you know, there's huge opportunities there, huge opportunities.
So moving onto our Brexit, because we always love to talk about Brexit. No, we don't. You know, "Brussels panic as May holds Trump's," or announced. So this could be an interesting turn. And we're starting to see this now where it's all been the EU's way and they've really been dictating terms absolutely 100% and really we've being sitting there taking it and infighting, you know, too busy focused amongst ourselves rather than actually the task at hand. But now we're starting to see things happen and, you know, and I have to say, I don't often agree with Theresa May, but she's just come out with this, you know, the reality is she said, "Hold your nerve," to the Ministers. And I think that's a pretty good thing to say, if I have to be honest. You know, I think we're at the stage now where, you know, we've got to push things through and there's a lot getting done in the background, but what we need to do is we need to get, there's a few sticking points where, you know, there's gonna have to be some give-and-take, you know. And I think nobody knows how this will end. My prediction is, which I've sort of talked about, is that I don't think it's gonna be anywhere near as bad as everyone thinks. I think we will get a plan, because if you think about it, what are politicians about? Politicians really these days don't seem to care about you and I, they don't care about the wider economy and things like that, what they care about is getting voted back in. That's their number one priority. And yeah, okay, once they've sorted that then maybe they'll put some thought into us. Okay.
So what's the worst thing for them as a politician? Is to have a no-deal Brexit. Whether that be in the EU or will that be in the UK, you know, they don't want that. No politician wants that level of uncertainty, no politician wants to be levelled with the, you know, "You didn't do a deal and look what happened. You're out." Yeah? That's not what they want. So my prediction is they will get a deal, yeah, they will get a deal, and the deal may not be the most beautiful deal in the world, politically it may not be the most wonderful deal, but actually what it will be is a deal that will get us through and actually it won't be anywhere near as bad, and what you'll find is then all the people who are priced in a no-deal, bad Brexit, you know, terrible things happening, what will happen is it'll reprice the market and we may actually see a pretty good time for property and for investors after that. Now, there is gonna, it's going to be a dog's breakfast, there's no doubt about that. So I think, you know, the six months after will be a dog's breakfast as we try and work things out in that. So I'm not saying that it's gonna be all beautiful and lovely. Absolutely not, in fact, the opposite. But I do not think we'll see 35% drops, I don't see, well, I don't think we'll see things that bad.
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