Hey, guys, coming to you this week from Singapore’s Gardens by the Bay, so I’ll get some cool views in the background, which should be pretty cool. But anyway, so this week, look, you know, it’s getting quite boring by saying the same thing every single time, which is basically that house prices still relatively robust. They’re not actually going down like everyone is actually imagining and the media might have you think. You know, yeah, certainly they’re not growing in a lot of areas, but things are still looking relatively robust and pretty cool. You know what? I’m quite, I won’t say bullish, but I’m certainly not bearish on the whole market so I think that’s quite good. Good news.
The one big thing that will affect London in particular, and perhaps, you know, some of the cities in terms of Manchester, and Birmingham, and potentially Leeds, where international investors are going off or investing, is that Theresa May has come out and said, “A 1% to 3% stamp duty.” You know? So, unfortunately, that will affect a lot of developers because the UK demand is low because there’s so much negativity about Brexit and everything that people are holding off. And now to come out with this, really is just another, you know, left hook and, you know, it’s unfortunate that they just, you know, I mean they’re so focused on the little things. They’ve got no direction, no leadership, no nothing. It’s pretty appalling, but you know what? You know, what can you do?
So, you know, the thing you’ve got to look at is that 3% stamp duty which, you know, they’re saying between one and three. I think the reality is they’re after three and that’s what will probably come out, so be ready for that. When it will come out probably you’ll be April, maybe next year it’ll come in. But then again it could be that they consult.
Now the government in the UK, let me explain what consultation means. They do all these things, spend a lot of money, and they say not to listen to a bloody thing, you know. It seems to be my impression, for the most part, is they don’t really care about what anyone thinks, this is what they’re doing. So expect, I would say, a 3%. I think, well, the thing to do now, right away, is if you’re negotiating, make sure you’re building that 3% in. And you know what? You’ll probably get that back. Yes, you’ll have to pay it, but you’re gonna get it back at the price and that tends to be what happens is that the government, they increase the tax, and then what will happen is the prices will go down in negotiations and you get that back from the developer.
The problem is is the developers, they’re the ones that are really gonna get hit by it, okay? By, I think, about this. They’re already starting to struggle. And I wouldn’t say struggle as in financially struggle, but what I would say is they’re at the point where, you know, things are starting to get on the knife’s edge, I’d say. Give it another 12 months, 18 months, depending on how Brexit goes. We might see some changes and some developers going bust and things like that. Some of your big boys, they’ll be fine, okay? It’s the smaller developers. And you may have realised, those who are investing with me, we’ve pulled away from a lot of those smaller developers some years ago. We just can’t risk them having, you know, a financial situation that doesn’t allow them to actually continue building through what is a slow down in the cycle. I don’t think it’s gonna be a drop-off, I think it’s gonna be…and I think it already is slowing down. So I think that’s the key there.
So finally, there’s Brexit. Really Brexit is becoming a bit of a non-event to some degree. I think they’re gonna come out with, I think… Have a look, I’ve done four different videos this week about Brexit, and talking about all sorts of things. And I think the key here is that I don’t think…I think they will get a deal. I think it’ll be in the twelfth hour. I don’t think it’ll be a very good deal, but it’ll be good enough so they can say, “Hey look, we did it, you know? Keep us in power.” And I think that’s the key there around that whole thing.
Besides that, guys, not a lot actually happening. The market’s still holding up really well, you know, a lot of people are starting to go, “Oh, I want to hold off till Brexit,” but I actually think, you know, it’s now where you’re getting the deals, it’s now where you’re getting the opportunities. And I think if Brexit doesn’t go as bad as everyone thinks, then all of a sudden we might see a bit of a shift in the market, okay? So, you know, that’s the gamble. And it is a gamble because nobody knows which way it’s gonna go. You’ve got to play that game.
All right guys, have a great day and remember, live with passion. See you later. Bye.