Can the UK get to 100,000 Coronavirus tests by end of April?

Does 100k per day tests even matter anymore, surely it's too little too late?

Let's find out!For all Brett's Coronavirus resources

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Video Transcription:

Hi, guys so welcome to tonight's Livestream hopefully tonight we get a better go at the streaming yesterday it was terrible and streaming on all fronts in fact. But I've actually I've got four kids, so the four kids are all on iPads last night something maybe that has something to do with it. I didn't realize they were still up anyway because in Singapore its what is it now six just going on 6 p.m.

Anyway, so today what I thought of cover was you'll see my frame has turned to be more positive because I think this it's so hard to get positivity out there it's so hard to find positive news stories. You actually have to go into the negative news stories and look for the positive paragraph or sentence or in a thing like that there's very little that is actually just you know like pure positive news. It's unfortunate because what if that does it just focuses all on the negative. So the question I want to post today it was you know can we get to 100,000 mass by the end of April that's what the government is set can we do it and you know is that too late end of April. But anyway we'll look at that today but we'll get into it and yeah we'll have a look at you know the general stuff that we go through.

So good guys so but we've got 13 days left I actually think we're gonna overshoot this mark I think given where it is and I think fair enough London potentially might get through but I think actually when as it Constantine is out across the rest of the country I think we're probably gonna have a bit longer. If you look at mostly incentive packages they're talking about three months you know that sort of stuff and I think really as I've been saying for a while you know we've got this for a while and have this for a while. The reality is is that we've got to consider that 79 days you know I think is that 3-month mark which is probably about right the good thing now is most countries have all come together and they're doing the same things about how to stop it. Most governments know right this is the correct way to stop it and there's still a few resisting you know but I'm like even Singapore today just announced they're going into a form of lockdown with it closing the schools and you know for a month there are basically you know just have people only do similar to what the UK is doing. In fact, most people probably not as draconian as Italy and Spain or perhaps Wuhan was but yeah you know we'll see how that works but I think that will work certainly for Singapore it would work, for us.

Look a million cases we've gone over the million mark 50,000 deaths so it is you know for me we haven't really even got started yet and I think that's the real thing here you know 936 the day before yesterday you know it is pretty full-on. I'm not going to go through the individual stats the US is just getting absolutely rammed and you know they just haven't got personal protective equipment. I mean it's unthinkable to be asking these people to go in with you know without these things knowing what the president knew over there. But you know it's not only happening there it's happening everywhere around the place. Even the UK you know not enough personal equipment, not enough testing not enough you know so they're really starting to run low. Most countries now are really starting to get involved and actually focusing in on what is needed and getting it ramped up the question is is is it too little too late. And that's you know that's a valid question because it's all good to come so late to the party and then decide that you're gonna provide you know a million masks you know on order. But I mean even with the in America you know GM they're not expecting to have you know it's gonna take them a month or two to get the ventilators you know which are wow that's you know that's a lot of people are going to die and unfortunately that that's on Trump and his minions.

Anyway let's focus, so outcomes we talked about two types of outcomes here there's obviously the recovery outcome and then there's the other one which we don't need to talk about we all hear about it so much. And you know as I said yesterday it's a struggle to find detailed figures on the recovery rate. But look 266,000 outcomes 213,000 of those are recovered okay so that's the good news in this whole thing obviously. The other ones have passed but you know 18,500 people recovered yesterday between you know yesterday and today which is great news you know so that that's you know that's some good news. Still, 80% and it's likely to stay 80%. But mind you that once it starts at all quell down and come down that's when we'll start seeing that 80% recovered becomes 90% become 95% and probably end up being 98% to 99% recovered. But unfortunately, that really won't change too much you know might go up a little bit in that but it won't change too much until we get the back end or thing so you know expect to see around the 80% mark for you know the rest of the time you know for the next month or two yeah but anyway that's you know that's good news if you like.

Some more good news because I really want to focus on good news now things that are happening. But as I said before it's really hard to find I mean the last article I found that had a whole list of them was like 19th of March but you know it's almost criminal that that's the case. We should be having you know our news media and our government should be publishing this sort of good news everyday lists of it you know, individual stories all that stuff. I don't know what happened to news but it just goes on to the whole negative part I am sure there are so many human stories out there you know of success and things have drawn well and how doctors are being you know they're just not getting out there. I mean the unfortunate thing is most of doctors and nurses are just feeling like they're being left you know to fend for themselves without the equipment they need and this is not just in the US is especially in the US.

Interestingly we the C-bills the coronavirus business incentive loan scheme seems to be taking advantage of by a few of the banks are now I had 130,000 applications only 1,000 have been approved yeah which is appalling and I've heard interest rates up to 30% as well as directors are being forced to effectively where all the risk by underwriting all of these loans. Like there are so many stories coming out now about this that actually the government have now reissued instructions say there are no personal guarantees up to 250,000 and they need to you know look at that more favourably. Because really it's nice having a scheme if no if the banks aren't going to lend. And the banks are just going to see it as a profit opportunity. The issue is they haven't defined what the interest rate needs to be. So I think the interest rates could be extortionate and cost-prohibitive that businesses are just not going to use it. You know I mean we're looking at it right now obviously it's they're hugely busy we've got the list of things we need to provide. It seems to be a full application pretty much you know as if it's commercial and I think that's the attitude they view on go for commercial if you can get commercial you get it that way otherwise then we'll put you under the C-bills. I'm pretty sure that's not how it was meant. So the government need to get on top of this otherwise businesses are going to shut and they will take with it that furloughing is useless if the business shuts, so they need to give on top of this.

Good news you know the recovery rates still 89%, 99% recovery. You know it's amazing because most people express it as the other side which is the 1% or 2% death rate you know this just shows you how negative and how focused on the negative downside we've been. Focus on the positive you know in the recovery rate 98 to 99% recovery rate you know that's a pretty good recovery rate in the end. Children are still less affected is still a milder version so that's good news you know many countries that took early action have actually been able to control the virus not stamp it out, not kill it out but they were able to control it, which is good news. I think really one of the big things if you look in the Spanish flu you might have had the daily newspaper you might have had the wireless radio with some news but the reality was if you were suffering for this you were kind of alone. I mean now we've got so many avenues through the internet so you know technology is it allowed us a totally different experience. In some ways you know it can be a bit more frightening because when you go online there is so much negativity but actually the ability to be able to do that and the ability able to call out you know Prime Ministers and Presidents and leaders and you know that is extraordinary now. I mean I love when Trump gives his address each day I watch it and I watch it not through Trump but I watch it through a guy who does a fact check. So as he's talking when literally he literally fact-checking everything he says I mean it's appalling how many lies he makes.

On the UK front great news, 20,000 NHS workers are returning to work. These are guys have retired who left that was coming back to work for the NHS 20,000 the other day I reported 4,500 so it's gone up. 560,000 volunteers a report of the other day that is now 750,000 volunteers, that's extraordinary and I think you know if we focus just on that one point it's an amazing thing that people are willing to go into that and you know and get involved in it. That just shows the quality of the human you know human nature and I think you know we've had a very divisive three years with Brexit but actually now we've been able to turn that around and I think you know realistically this is the best of us. And the best of you know people I mean yes sirs there's the worst of coming out with some of the politicians and other you know people are leaving out and the fact that they're happy to leave people to die but actually by far the majority of things that are happening is really showing the best of us. and I think that's great you know to happen you know 33 thousand beds freed up equivalent to 50 hospitals if you think four years for ten years twelve years we had austerity just you know hammering us down, hammering us down, hammering us down every possible you know pound that we take it out of the economy was taken out you know and then same in the NHS you know there were so many complaints about the NHS but when the sticks are down you know all of a sudden they've been able to turn around and effectively create the capacity for 50 hospitals and a lot of that is the Nightingale hospitals. It's extraordinary what can be done when you've got a singleness of purpose and when you've got a goal and some leadership you know I mean if we can do this imagine how well we can do post Brexit wise you know and that is the sort of leadership that we need now going forwards.

You know I mean certainly, Boris and Rishi have set off on you know the right track. They do need to team it but obviously I love Boris's bit vacant right now he's got the virus. But I mean he'll be back I'm sure. The reality is yeah that's awesome.

I just want to take you through so this 100,000 tests by the end of April so on the 18th of May the government said basically that it would hit 25,000 per day yeah by the middle of April this was by the middle of April and I think one of the things that we have definitely not done enough of is testing. I mean look at all the success stories around the place it's testing you know testing, tracking and isolating. You know we haven't been doing it and you know you can see by the graph just there that you know where the last even America we need to ramp up your cut you know have America Beach on something simple like that but South Korea which is probably the poster boy for success you know look at they got in but more importantly they got in really early which allowed them to stop the community spread. The fact you know look at the US is the worst in terms of how long they left it and that's why they're going to get absolutely spanked but even if you look at the model you know the model between Italy and the US is very similar the UK got in there so I think that's why the UK is not going to get hit as hard it's still gonna be hard we still lift it too long but you know 25th of March Boris says you know we're going from five to ten thousand 25,000 hopefully 250,000 per day you know very soon. Well, can we get there we'll the other day you know literally yesterday they come out with 100,000 tests by the end of April now for me I think we need to do better than that I think we need to just absolutely focus on the testing yes we need to focus on the hospitals and that's what stuff but if we get testing and then we can isolate people and track the people that have been around then we can really narrow that curve and get it down in a relatively quick manner.

So I think that's really important you know to look at. Can we get to 100,000 the great thing is there is a lot of companies that are getting behind this and I think now the whole country is getting beyond I realized the need that realise the seriousness of it I mean there's a time when this was treated as if it was a China door thing you know and yeah we can blame China unless stuff that's not the time it's not time for this any of that what the time is now is to about them you know the medical emergency and the human tragedy. The economy can come right up as well you know but certainly that you know the medical and the human side is what we need to be focusing on now and I think now they are taking the medical seriously which is good news but all right guys that's it for today so have a fantastic day and remember to stay safe, stay healthy and we'll see you tomorrow and definitely stay at home all right see you later bye

Brett Alegre-Wood
April 3, 2020

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