Last year I also predicted a safe 5% growth so at 8% (Nationwide 7.2% and Halifax 8.5%). I wasn't that far off. In fact, unlike some property experts I’ve been thereabouts every year for the past five years, although I can never claim to have got it right either.
The interesting thing about house price predictions is that most property experts are wrong most of the time and last year was no different. In fact, the more and more I play this game of guessing what house prices are going to do for the coming year the more I realise that it doesn’t matter.
I had clients who made over 100% returns last year on property they bought through us. Some of these were paper returns but many were real returns.
So how can house price growth be at 8% odd but people make over 100%. The answer is simple.
Far too often I see people reading the news which incidentally is saying house prices in the UK could drop this year. Que the shock/horror gasp! Wait a week and in their next report they bring out will say house prices are expected to grow this year.
This is the fundamental problem with listening to the news and media (and experts). They can use different data (an almost unlimited amount of data) to draw whatever conclusions they want.
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So you have to get local and see what is happening in your area this year or the area you are looking to invest, because mark my words put aside all the hype about potential interest rate rises, election jitters, Euro contagion, China slowing, Greek exits and deflation from low oil prices and you will see that many areas will go up much more than the 5% I am predicting.
The real question you should be asking is not: ‘How much house prices generally are going to go up this year?’ but ‘how can I maximise my house price growth this year?’ or ‘what are the areas that are likely to smash the house price predictions for 2015?’
That’s what excites me because I have just completed my property hotspots algorithm, it’s the culmination of my research into 326 districts around the UK and from that I have chosen 118 UK districts that I consider will beat the averages and are worth consideration when it comes to investing.
They will perform better because they have higher population densities, low home building rates for the past 4 years, large amounts of regeneration investment, I am even tracking things like broadband speeds and uptakes, crime rates, transport links and distance from schools, universities, major cities. There are 109 criteria right now which allows me to draw a pretty good conclusion on the potential.
The 118 districts are now being research by my team in our newly setup Research Department which I am personally heading up and once these are done, and this is the exciting bit, you will have access to it all to see for yourself.
One of my commitment is to make public my research so you can do your own research.
My reasons for this are simple: I want you to get above the average house price growth because we are doing the investment research into the areas that will grow above the average. It’s not rocket science it just takes a lot of time and a lot of interpretation of data.
So ignore the 2015 house price predictions, they will be wrong, the gurus that make them, are wrong (including me), instead research your areas with my new tools which will be launching soon.
If you don’t have the time to do that then simply call the team on +44 (0)207 923 6100.
Live with passion and fun,