Cashflow and Interest Rates… where they’re likely to go?
Video Transcription:
Hey guys. So Bretts Property Rants. So what I wanna chat about, I guess, is cash flow, and in particular, interest rates, and where they’re likely to go.
I mean, we have had the lowest interest rates ever in the history of the world, I think, to be fair. Probably not the history of the world. That’s probably a, but certainly, in modern history, it’s been the lowest for the longest. And I don’t think they’re ever gonna go back up to where they were, because, you know, corporate debt in America is nine trillion. You know, their consumer debt is 22 trillion. You know, they’re huge numbers. And the problem is if interest rates go too high, then they can’t afford anything, and they’re gonna have massive defaults, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera
And there’s a whole range of reasons why I don’t think it’s going up too high. But I do think the interest rates will go up, and they will need to go up, and I think the key is for you, personally, have you actually calculated all of your debts, put ’em all together, okay, and then worked out if interest rates rose, let’s say 1%, 2%, 4%, you know. I think at 4%, that’s really going to be a massive stress test, you know. And when we look at that, that’d be a massive jump for most people.
So I think if you can sustain a 4%, you’ve got absolutely nothing to worry about. I think 2% is about what, you know, what you really need to account for and you really need to calculate. If you’re gonna struggle, then what you might need to do is, right now, start to look at how you can start putting money aside, maybe paying off some debt or, you know, paying down that debt. If you have to, sell a house. If you have to, you know, don’t take on more debt. All these sorts of things. Don’t just include houses, ’cause this is not just about houses. This is all debt, okay.
The availability of your debt is gonna start decrease, and the money supply is decreasing right now. So, effectively, what that means is as the money supply decreases, you tend to find we go into a recessional downturn, okay. And so all these sorts of things are starting to kick in and start to move forward now. So, you know, you can sit there and say, oh, no, no, no. I’ve been watching the hundreds and hundreds of YouTube channels that say, no, house prices are gonna continue. You know, corporate debt’s gonna continue. Everything’s fine. But I would just say that lot of the indicators now are pointing towards a downward happening. And it could be in 2020, it could be in 2021, it could be in 2022 but somewhere around now. I mean, there are lots of things that countries could do to stimulate and to sort of, you know, stretch it out.
I think the UK’s in a reasonable position because it’s got a very strong economy. And actually, to be fair, we’ve had a pretty rough time over the last two years with Brexit. And that’s kept, the growth down. And that will play into, that’ll put us in a good position if the rest of the world does go into a downturn. That’s not to say that we’re not gonna, you know, see things changing and not have to do this. But I think for this, you know, what have you personally done? Have you done that calculation? If you haven’t, it’s probably time to do it, and then if you want to, you know, one of the big things we do is portfolio management.
So, if you’re not sure what to do, if you’re not sure how to do it, get all figures together, you know, book with a team, and, you know, sit down with them, and get them to run through the implications of that. ‘Cause when you run through the implications, you know, knowledge is power, and you can act on knowledge. You’re sticking your head in the sand and waiting for a kick up the ass, you know, that’s not the way to do it. That is not the way to do it. That’s gonna create stress. Maybe, right now, you can live blissfully, but that’ll create stress down the way, whereas you don’t need to.
Actually, what we find with most of our clients, they are fine. Once they do the numbers, they realize they’re fine, and they can then almost kick back and relax because they don’t need to worry. By far the majority of people are gonna be absolutely fine with that sort of 2% increase in interest rates, okay. So if you’re sitting out there, and you’re concerned about it, and you’re thinking your head in the sand, don’t, give the team a call, like go through the numbers and really get you a sense, you know, some certainty. That’s really what we want, is to give you a sense of certainty as you’re building a portfolio. Now it may be that there’s actually some leeway there if you take advantages and opportunities now. ‘Cause what we’re seeing is, you know, vendors and developers are starting now to give a bit more, you know, flexibility on their pricing, because things have slowed now You know, the numbers are slowing down.
Look, the price houses haven’t dropped off, but they will follow. And, you know, that will start to come, you know. But, right now, you know, things are still looking pretty good. But now’s the time to really make those adjustments if you need to make them.
Alright, guys, have a great day. Live with passion, see ya.
