UK’s Second Wave Of Covid19 And Its Impact On The UK Economy

Brett Alegre-Wood
October 17, 2020

How bad is the second wave going to be?

A lot of business could be badly hit as they are just starting to recover and now is taking another hit. The key is how the government responds to how the people In the UK would adhere to what the government says.

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Recession watch in this segment what I'm doing is I'm just going to track the recession to see how we're going with it and where we're going and what my thoughts are. What’s on everyone's minds right now really is this second wave and what's happening with that.

If you look at the data you'll see that it's a little bit scary that it's come back up to where it was when we had the lockdown. I mean it's six months since lockdown so you know the first lockdown in March you know it's interesting because I remember March 15th actually March 14th I actually flew back to Singapore, I just made it in before the lockdowns and things like that.

Interesting thing now is how bad is this going to be? I don't think it's going to be as bad as people may make it out. It could be tragic for a lot of businesses because they've survived the first bout and now they're the second bout and where you know especially things like nightclubs and bars and pubs and all these sort of things you know it might be the death knell for them and we'll see.

I've been saying for a long time you know to track down unemployment numbers there's no new unemployment numbers out. There's no redundancy numbers that have come out; they're not until the start of October they come out and we'll certainly track it on this show.

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I think you know the key for me with this second wave and the impact of the second wave is really about what the government does. How much they tighten it down? Part of it is how much the citizens and the people of the UK actually adhere to this.

I've seen in Singapore what has happened when you've got an orderly society that listens to the government. A government that makes sense, a government that explains why they're doing things and sure has penalties and things like that for not doing it. By doing that and by you know we've been wearing masks when we're outside and unless we're out you know physically exerting ourselves like jogging, running and riding that sort of thing and that really had a positive benefit.

There's very low community spread and there's good track and tracing there's good testing. The model is out there for success you know the UK hopefully they certainly didn't they certainly didn't win you know in the first round. But hopefully they can this time and hopefully with the new medicines and the new treatments and also stuff that'll work out.

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I'm optimistic you know I don't think it's going to be as bad as it could be. I think it is going to need some stimulation from the government. Let's face it that is why the government is there you know and one of the things I've been saying for a while and all landlords have been saying is that you know they've been picking on landlords you know with these you know not allowing evictions and all sorts of things and i get why not but then support the landlords.

There's a lot of tenants who aren't paying because they don't want to because they feel they can get one up on the landlords not because they are in any problems. We're in a recession and we've been in recession now which means two quarters of negative equity growth. The likelihood is that we're going to stay in recession for how long? Let's see you know is this UK recession expected to continue until spring amid Covid surge. I agree with this.

I think we're going to be in recession through the winter months. We've got the double whammy the lockdown now or you know as as we call it in Singapore the circuit breaker which is a polite way of saying pretty much lockdown. How much and how long that goes on for will determine how the recession plays out. But then you've also got the winter which was going to happen anyway.

That on top is going to slow things down so when you add both those it's a double whammy. And that could see house prices and unemployment and all these sorts of things you know really start to take effect and take hold which they haven't really done so far. I keep saying the government supporting and I think you know if we look at the government supporting you know this thing here Rishi basically university weighs up German style subsidies which is basically that as a you know if I employ somebody and i've got enough work for them to work two days but I can't keep them for the full time then the government will pay for three days and you know and it'll be a subsidise of some form probably full wage. Similar to fair low scheme or flexible furlough they've got now but they'll probably introduce a new scheme I imagine. 

What I've noticed and speaking to a lot of people now. It's not actually a lot of people who are getting rid of people, they have got rid of them. They're not holding on to them for the end of furlough and I think that's you know one of the keys. We'll see you know where that is and I see Paul as just written in um you know that okay threatening 307 Covid deaths this year amongst under 60s even according to government figures epidemic. Look but the reality is that it could get and I'm pretty sure there'd be more than 307 but anyway I'm not sure I'll have to check that data.

The government stimulus and how they go about that and how they and it's not just stimulus direct stimulus giving money and the furlough. It's how they get the building, the construction industry working, it's how they keep the hospitality industry all these industries and they are gonna have to support them. Because they want to keep the economy up and the unemployment rate low. They're going to have to support them so you know there's no real way out of that.

Video Transcription

Recession watch in this segment what I'm doing is I'm just going to track the recession to see how we're going with it and where we're going and what my thoughts are. What’s on everyone's minds right now really is this second wave and what's happening with that. If you look at the data you'll see that it's a little bit scary that it's come back up to where it was when we had the lockdown. I mean it's six months since lockdown so you know the first lockdown in March you know it's interesting because I remember March 15th actually March 14th I actually flew back to Singapore, I just made it in before the lockdowns and things like that. Interesting thing now is how bad is this going to be? I don't think it's going to be as bad as people may make it out. It could be tragic for a lot of businesses because they've survived the first bout and now they're the second bout and where you know especially things like nightclubs and bars and pubs and all these sort of things you know it might be the death knell for them and we'll see. I've been saying for a long time you know to track down unemployment numbers there's no new unemployment numbers out. There's no redundancy numbers that have come out; they're not until the start of October they come out and we'll certainly track it on this show. I think you know the key for me with this second wave and the impact of the second wave is really about what the government does. How much they tighten it down? Part of it is how much the citizens and the people of the UK actually adhere to this. I've seen in Singapore what has happened when you've got an orderly society that listens to the government. A government that makes sense, a government that explains why they're doing things and sure has penalties and things like that for not doing it. By doing that and by you know we've been wearing masks when we're outside and unless we're out you know physically exerting ourselves like jogging, running and riding that sort of thing and that really had a positive benefit. There's very low community spread and there's good track and tracing there's good testing. The model is out there for success you know the UK hopefully they certainly didn't they certainly didn't win you know in the first round. But hopefully they can this time and hopefully with the new medicines and the new treatments and also stuff that'll work out. I'm optimistic you know I don't think it's going to be as bad as it could be. I think it is going to need some stimulation from the government. Let's face it that is why the government is there you know and one of the things I've been saying for a while and all landlords have been saying is that you know they've been picking on landlords you know with these you know not allowing evictions and all sorts of things and i get why not but then support the landlords. There's a lot of tenants who aren't paying because they don't want to because they feel they can get one up on the landlords not because they are in any problems. We're in a recession and we've been in recession now which means two quarters of negative equity growth. The likelihood is that we're going to stay in recession for how long? Let's see you know is this UK recession expected to continue until spring amid Covid surge. I agree with this. I think we're going to be in recession through the winter months. We've got the double whammy the lockdown now or you know as as we call it in Singapore the circuit breaker which is a polite way of saying pretty much lockdown. How much and how long that goes on for will determine how the recession plays out. But then you've also got the winter which was going to happen anyway. That on top is going to slow things down so when you add both those it's a double whammy. And that could see house prices and unemployment and all these sorts of things you know really start to take effect and take hold which they haven't really done so far. I keep saying the government supporting and I think you know if we look at the government supporting you know this thing here Rishi basically university weighs up German style subsidies which is basically that as a you know if I employ somebody and i've got enough work for them to work two days but I can't keep them for the full time then the government will pay for three days and you know and it'll be a subsidise of some form probably full wage. Similar to fair low scheme or flexible furlough they've got now but they'll probably introduce a new scheme I imagine. What I've noticed and speaking to a lot of people now. It's not actually a lot of people who are getting rid of people, they have got rid of them. They're not holding on to them for the end of furlough and I think that's you know one of the keys. We'll see you know where that is and I see Paul as just written in um you know that okay threatening 307 Covid deaths this year amongst under 60s even according to government figures epidemic. Look but the reality is that it could get and I'm pretty sure there'd be more than 307 but anyway I'm not sure I'll have to check that data. The government stimulus and how they go about that and how they and it's not just stimulus direct stimulus giving money and the furlough. It's how they get the building, the construction industry working, it's how they keep the hospitality industry all these industries and they are gonna have to support them. Because they want to keep the economy up and the unemployment rate low. They're going to have to support them so you know there's no real way out of that.


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