Global GDP Forecasts 2020 – 2024

Brett Alegre-Wood
October 19, 2020

What does the UK GDP say?

GDP is basically the "PRODUCTION" of a country. I often find that the worst case never happens. 2020, dropped. 2021, we're back to where we started before Covid. We'll grow back but not until 2024.

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Let's have a look at GDP (Gross Domestic Product) which is effectively the production of a country. The interesting thing with this is EuroMonitor International,  it's a report by them. I put a bit of stats off there because I liked their approach. A whole big 80 page or something report looking at what their forecasts are and what their predictions are. 

The problem with all this is that you can go to 10 different sources and get 10 different answers but I kind of like, I love these fan diagrams whereby they say this is one option this is the next, this is the next and this is the next because I find the experts to say this is what will happen get it wrong. Most experts are wrong most of the time as I say. 

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But I think this one the good thing about this and that here's the thing to look at. That dotted line is the pre-Covid, the baseline which is what I actually think will happen. The baseline is a green one and then you've got pessimistic one, two and three so they've actually given three pessimistic cases. I often find the worst case never happens okay or very rarely happens but for me that green line there is the one that I would be looking at. And what that means is if you have a look it's pretty simple and that's what I like about this.  

Obviously 2020 drop in a massive drop, 2021 we're back to where we started the before Covid. 2022 for the next one down the pessimistic 1 is we are back to where before corona started, 2023 is pessimistic 2 and 2024 is pessimistic 3. That's really the scope, so the worst case scenario in this scenario is we're actually growing but we're not back to where we were until 2024. 

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The good thing is that we're not dropping much further if you look at the middle of 2021, we drop until then but then we pick up from there. Which that pretty much I think fits well with most models and most people are saying look you know winter's going to be a slow winter and you know probably for the first half you know h1 the next year will be pretty slow because we're going to lay off a heap of people and then it'll have to correct and then we'll start adding people back which is what I think is going to happen.

Video Transcription

Let's have a look at GDP (Gross Domestic Product) which is effectively the production of a country. The interesting thing with this is EuroMonitor International,  it's a report by them. I put a bit of stats off there because I liked their approach. A whole big 80 page or something report looking at what their forecasts are and what their predictions are. The problem with all this is that you can go to 10 different sources and get 10 different answers but I kind of like, I love these fan diagrams whereby they say this is one option this is the next, this is the next and this is the next because I find the experts to say this is what will happen get it wrong. Most experts are wrong most of the time as I say. But I think this one the good thing about this and that here's the thing to look at. That dotted line is the pre-Covid, the baseline which is what I actually think will happen. The baseline is a green one and then you've got pessimistic one, two and three so they've actually given three pessimistic cases. I often find the worst case never happens okay or very rarely happens but for me that green line there is the one that I would be looking at. And what that means is if you have a look it's pretty simple and that's what I like about this. Obviously 2020 drop in a massive drop, 2021 we're back to where we started the before Covid. 2022 for the next one down the pessimistic 1 is we are back to where before corona started, 2023 is pessimistic 2 and 2024 is pessimistic 3. That's really the scope, so the worst case scenario in this scenario is we're actually growing but we're not back to where we were until 2024. The good thing is that we're not dropping much further if you look at the middle of 2021, we drop until then but then we pick up from there. Which that pretty much I think fits well with most models and most people are saying look you know winter's going to be a slow winter and you know probably for the first half you know h1 the next year will be pretty slow because we're going to lay off a heap of people and then it'll have to correct and then we'll start adding people back which is what I think is going to happen.


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