Warning to less than 40’s: Is your perspective wrong?

Brett Alegre-wood
March 8, 2023

Probably 35, probably 40-year-olds out there, you guys probably haven't had massive interest rate rises, and you probably haven't had massive unemployment. Been through that. And so the amazing thing is if you have been through that, let's face the last 15 years, we have had really, really cheap interest rates. So you could be thinking that that's normal. We're in an abnormal position right now, when actual fact interest rates right now at you know, when February to 2023, are actually not that high.

Video Transcription About the Warning to less than 40's

If you think interest rates went to 17%, if you think unemployment in the 70s, went to 12%, we're currently at about 3.7, or four. So you imagine the marketplace differently, you know, how much different it is back then. And I think this is where you got to be a bit careful because if you're using the last 15 years, which has been austerity, Brexit, COVID, all these really weird anomalies and things like that, you can be forgiven for making mistakes.

I'm not saying that you don't know what you're talking about. I'm not saying not lived through it. I'm not trying to say, you know, me at 50 in a couple of weeks’ time, knows more than you. But I've been through a recession, I've seen interest rates high, I've seen those sorts of things. Actually, I'm sure even my parents have seen even more than me.

I think that's that perspective, actually has been lost in the last few years. Because things have been so low for so long. But the question is, how does that impact your decision-making going forward? Because I think that's the important thing if you're making decisions, because you think that interest rates can go up much further, if you're making decisions based on property prices, not being able to drop 40%, or 20%, or 30%, or whatever it is, then you might be rudely awakened very soon.

I'm not saying I'm not making a prediction, I'm not making any judgment. What I'm saying is, it has happened previously. And it's not only happening, if you follow the interest rates back many, many years, I'm talking hundreds of years, you'll see interest rates going up, and they come back down.

House prices go up and they come back down. And yeah, it's terrible. If you get a 40% drop, it's horrific. And I'll do another video on that. But the reality is, you've got to keep that in mind that that is a possibility. And actually, it may be something that we may see in our lifetime, you know, so just a thought for that as I was sitting here, I was reading a lot of comments about, you know, 40% couldn't happen, it's not possible supply and demand is you know, where it is.

Actually, it can, because there's other macro factors that are not just about supply and demand that can affect it. So yeah, but anyway, I'll continue to do videos on that sort of stuff. And I guess, challenge your thinking, because if you're sitting there thinking in no way at all, look, not even I you know, I've been doing it for 30 years, and not even I know it all, you know, we get it wrong, and as I say most experts are wrong most of the time. So, you know, at least factor in the scenario that the ship might hit the fan.


Beginner Property Investor, Interest Rates, UK Property Investment

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