UK Property News – 20 Oct 2018

Brett Alegre-Wood
October 20, 2018

Video Transcription: 

Hi, guys. So welcome to this week's "Property News." So this week actually, it's quite a boring week this week. And the problem is, is every week, what I do, is I sit down, and I look at the property news, and I type UK property news or UK Brexit news or all these sorts of different keywords, and I get different articles come up. And the amazing thing is every week just seems to be the same drivel coming all over and over again. So, you know, I'm actually looking for ways now to make it more interesting and make it more...I guess drive deeper. And so what you guys start to see is a few more stories. And they're almost side stories. And you know, look, one of the great things is I Iove...I travel quite a bit. I'm up in Toowoomba [SP] right now and been up here for Zac and Sonnie's wedding. Well done, guys, awesome wedding. My first Indian/Western wedding. We actually had two ceremonies, so awesome. Anyway, it was a great night, and so I'm actually feeling pretty good this morning.

But now, back to the news. Look, the bottom line of the news is this, house prices are still going up in the UK as a percentage overall, okay? So that's good, you know, that's great news. But what it also means is London is still not doing too well, you know. And I don't expect London really to pick up and do extremely well, for a little while yet. I mean, if you think about it, we've got Brexit coming up. A lot of people aren't coming in. We just had the lovely announcement from May saying she's gonna add a stamp duty. And the problem with this, all this stuff, it creates uncertainty, and uncertainty means that house prices aren't gonna be driven up, okay? And I think now, there are lots of opportunities out now because what we're starting to see is developers negotiate bits of deals with this. So that's a good thing from my own perspective. But I think what you gotta do, you gotta be prepared to write a no deal through.

Now, I know I've been saying I think they will get a deal, and I still think they will. But even if they don't and it all turns to crap, which, you know, what does that mean? I mean, there are so many different stories about that. There are stories coming out about 35% drops, that's the worst case. There are stories coming out about saying actually house prices could increase because that is a whole range of things. And you know, who do you believe? And look, the bottom line is don't believe any of 'em. Do you own research. Take what I'm saying and use that as a basis to go and do your own research and see what you think. For me, I'm looking at a really... For the strategy I guess that I'm thinking is, I think they'll get a deal. I think they have to get a deal politically. Won't be a very good economic deal, and I think everyone knows that, but the other thing is it's priced into the market. Now, the other real big thing that I think is playing out besides Brexit... If you take Brexit out and all the crap that's around there and all the waffle and white noise, actually, the UK, outside of London... London's grown quite a bit, community towns have grown quite a bit. They have started to slow down. The cities have grown quite a bit, the major cities, but the rest of the UK hasn't grown anything yet. And so actually, there's no reason, no reason within reason, that it should drop, okay? So that's one of the big things.

I mean, I normally add a bit of a Brexit talk at the end. But I think the key here with this whole thing is that Brexit is so intrinsically linked to everything about the economy now. And I think, you know, to talk about it separately, yes we can, and there are basic update and news, which is, "They still haven't got a deal. They should have had a deal by now in order to get it ratified," and all this blah, blah, blah. But the reality is they haven't. They're still working hard at it. It will come off. As I said, it will be a 12-hour deal. You know, we're inside six months now. So now people are really starting to take it seriously and really starting to plan for it in their businesses, so that will make some adjustment. But I think by the time Brexit comes, it will already be priced in. And I think that's one of the key things. In the market, we deal in, and whether that be property or whether that be shares or softs, Brexit is already priced into a large degree with what we're talking about. And so actually, that fact.

Now, yes, if it goes massively one way or massively the other, then the market may not have priced in the correct amount, and that could happen. But you know what, for the most part, I think actually, we're gonna see Brexit come and go and not have that much an effect. Why? Because it's already had an effect. I'm not saying that Brexit didn't have an effect, I'm saying that when Brexit happens, the effect will be largely muted because we have already had so much downside for everything, okay? So I think that's one of the key things here, is I think it will be almost business as usual. We still have the fifth largest economy in the world, we still have a lot going for us, and that's not going to go away. You can't just make that disappear. So all that added up, that's the news this week. Not a lot else is happening. There's not a lot else to report. It's all looking pretty good still, as much as people are telling you. And every news article is about, "Lo and behold and terrible." And, "The flood is coming, build the boat now," and it's like, it's not, you know. And the stats, and the foundation, the fundamentals, all that, is looking pretty good still. All right, guys, have a great day. Live with passion, and remember, subscribe and comment, and I'll get back to you real soon. All right, guys, have a great one.


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