Could UK Property Prices Drop 40%?

UK Property Prices Drop

Hey guys, so it's begun Lloyds Banking Group saying that house price is good to drop 25% or 40% in the worst-case scenario, I mean, we're always gonna see this, and we're always gonna see lenders talking things down, and we're always gonna see the Bank of England talking things down and all these different parties talking things down.

Look, the positive news is that 40% is, I guess, the worst-case scenario of any prediction. So, you know, actually, in fact, I haven't seen anyone do 30 to 40%. I've actually 30% Yes. 20% Yes, 10% lot more people, you know, sort of that five to 10% drop is what most people are expecting.

Property Fundamentals

So bring it back to 2021. So, you know, retracing two years, which actually isn't much of a drop. And in actual fact, the key here, when you read these things, is these are the areas that are going to have crap fundamentals, areas where nothing's happening, the population is aging, young people moving out into the cities, you know, it's not in the major cities, it's not in the areas that have the best fundamentals. It's not in the areas that have, good transport, good investment, good job opportunities, all this sort of stuff.

Okay. So, if you're worried about your property, look at the area it's in, if it's in a crappy area that has no potential that slowly degrades or decays, then that area is crap. Get rid of the property, sell it as soon as you can, well, maybe not sell it as soon as you can. When the time's right. Okay?

So because you may be locked into a mortgage, or blah, blah, blah, whatever capital gains, you know, so that, at the end of the day, if an area is a crap, get rid of the property and buy into an area where the fundamentals are better, that will actually see you through the next few years. And actually, to be fair, you probably should have already sold that anyway, before this.

Take control of your financial future 

If you've been listening, then you would know that, but look, the bottom line is don't listen to the headlines, the headlines are there to get column inches to promote, you know, whatever agenda they're promoting. Look at what the average, you know, middle of the rain sort of people do, and what you're seeing there is sort of five to 10% drop, you know, and it could be worse could be 20, you know? So 40% Yeah, possible. But I'll tell you, there's a lot of stuff that has to go on to get 40% drop, you know, and actually, I'll be worried about the entire economy. Massively if that was the case.

So yeah, guys, that's just food for thought, you know, Lloyds Bank Group Congratulations on coming out on the worst prediction ever. Normally, that's the Bank of England that says that. 

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Live with passion,

Brett Alegre-Wood
March 10, 2023

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