The 3 Simple Questions to Ask Before You Believe the BS About UK Property In Sept 2020!

Brett Alegre-Wood
August 19, 2020

Yep, Just 3 Questions to Ask While reading any article, any prediction, any opinion, Any Claim on property.

So three simple questions that I use, before I believe any BS, opinion, prediction, claim, article or blog that I read about the property market.  

I've broken this simple process down over many years and this helps me get clear of where I should file the opinion in the bin immediately, in the bin when I check the claims, in a file just in case I need it or perhaps even pride of place in my office mantel. I find if I ask myself these 3 simple quesitons I can then go on with eyes wide open. 

Okay, so what's the first one so the first one is: 

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1. Question The Timing...
When you're reading this claim you want to look at what timing.  Are they talking about sometimes, are they talking about a particular time or perhaps even a particular period. They may be saying property prices will decrease, say 6%, 'now' or they may say 'this year', Or did they mean say 2020 for the last five months or it might be the whole of 2020. 

You've got to find this out and work out what is the timing they're predicting, are they talking about next year, over the next five years, have they said property prices are gonna go down to 10% or 15%, but there's no timing at all. It was an open ended claim.

So this is the first thing I look... What's the timing for this because I want to know where I'm actually positioned in time. And when I do that, then I can work out the relevance of that information and see whether it's pertinent to my situation.

Personalise the Claim
This whole game isn't about the predictions they're making... it's about how the predictions apply to your portfolio. Their prediction may have nothing to do with your situation or portfolio. 

Say they're talking about London versus your portfolio which is in Manchester, or it could mean if they're talking about UK wide claims or statistics when actually you're in one little area.  Maybe you don't listen to that claim, maybe you go and find the information on your particular area. 'Get Local' as I like to say, so timings the first one. 

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2. What Conditions Are Being Placed On The Claim
The second one is the conditions, and conditions are a bit open ended. For instance, the Nationwide Mortgage Stats. They're looking at their customers only for that period which might represent a certain socio-economic group versus say the Halifax report or Land Registry which could present a totally different picture for the same period and even the same area. 

The other conditions are, imagine they saying let's say 'Prices have dropped 20%'. So then you have to go 'Hold on a sec Let me now explore what does this really mean, what's the likelihood of this really happening?'

So look at the conditions, and when you start looking through, you have your glass filters on, then all of a sudden now you start becoming a lot more reflective about any claims and the conditions they suggest because a lot of this media is written in such a way where it says, If this happens, this will happen, not this is going to happen

Now one thing I can say with certainty is Most experts are wrong most of the time. In my book, How To Predict House Prices (2015). I explain how over a few years my team tracked property experts who predicted house price growth and no surprising most experts were wrong most of the time.

In fact the ones that made the most ridiculous and incorrect got the most column inches. That's what gets the media is the guy that says 30% up and the guy that says 30% down... NOT the guy that every year, after year says 5%, 5%, 3%, 8%, drop 3%, 5%, 3%, they tend not to get noticed, even though they are more accurate than the ridiculous and obscene.

All because media wants sensationalism.

So, timing is the first one, conditions is the next one.

3. What Is The Motivation Of The Person/Company Making The Claim.
And the final one is motivation.

If this is a newspaper or an article written by somebody who is in the shares game, and they're slagging off property, What's their motivation? Selling Shares not Property so of course, they will talk it down because they make their money is in shares.

If they're a property educator, they're talking about how great property is. So check the motivation

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Do Qualifications Matter And Why Aren't They In This List, Surely They Are More Important Than Motivation?

Now, a lot of people say to me but hold on what about qualifications.

Surely it's better to listen to someone with lots of qualifications. Degrees and letters after their name and a lot of that stuff. Now I am not totally rubbishing this as I have MARLA and MNAEA qualifications which are the two Propertymark Level 3 industry qualification in property sales and property management. It's a great qualification, and I'm currently doing my Level 4 exams as well.

But the reality is, qualifications for me just show intelligence for a lot of things, it doesn't actually show the ability to be able to apply that into a real life setting.

Market knowledge and experience and years in market, and the ability to write lots of articles and books and things like this that generally shows a much better aptitude towards taking the situation and applying it to real life.

Especially when you're making serious predictions that people may act upon, which are the hardest thing to get right and it is hard because I spend a lot of time reading, I spend a lot of time searching for information, in listening to the markets, my mentors and my peers.

So all the time whenever somebody says something to me. I think what's the timing they're saying, what are the conditions they're putting on that and then their motivation when I look at those three things.

Generally, I'm able to assess that prediction in a much better manner. 

If you want any further advice give the team a call, sit down have a chat with them, get all your questions answered and get really certain, certainty is what this markets, and in fact any market is about So here';s to your certainty.

So get speak to the team. If you have any questions, make sure you subscribe, like, you know, comment down in the comment section and I'll be happy to answer.

Live with passion and fun, 

Brett

Video Transcription

So welcome guys, so three simple questions that I use, before I believe any bs that I read about property market, whenever it is okay. Now, the three simple questions, there's just three. Okay, and I've broken this down over many years. And this helps me. If you like to do this if I do this before I read something, then I go on with eyes wide open. Okay, so what's the first one so the first one is simply timing. All right, so when you're reading this you want to look at what timing, are they talking about sometimes there's no time they're making statement property prices will decrease, you know, 6%, you know, now then they may say this year, so the timing they're talking about is this year. Now, did I mean this year I think I have the rest of the year so it's, you know, it might be 2020 for the last five months or it might be the whole of 2020. So you've got to find this out and work out what is the timing they're predicting, are they talking about next year, over the next five years, have they not really said property prices are gonna go down to 10 15%, and there's no timing. Okay. It was an open ended claim, you know, so this is the first thing I look at is what's the timing for this because I want to know where I'm actually positioned in time. And when I do that, then I can, you know, work out the relevance of that information and see whether it's pertinent to my situation this is the key here. All right, this whole game isn't about the predictions they're making is the predictions I made my thing might have nothing to do with your portfolio. If they're talking about London versus your portfolio is all in Manchester, you know, that could mean or if they're talking about UK wide when actually you're in one little area, maybe you don't listen to that maybe you go and find the information on your particular area get local as I say, all right, so timings the first one. The second one is the conditions, and the conditions is a bit open ended so it could be isn't London Manchester isn't the whole of the UK. Is it for instance, the nationwide mortgage, Paul. In other words they're looking at their customers, you know, which might be a certain socio economic versus your customers or your tenants or your whatever or your mortgages are related to a totally different types and you may be better to go to, you know, Halifax, or whatever. Okay, so that's where, if you look at the conditions the other conditions are is are they saying anything where they go. Price has dropped 20%. If this happens, so then you have to go Hold on a sec. Let me now explore, if this, what does that mean, what's the likelihood of that happening, isn't going to happen, you know, couldn't change. Yeah. So look at the conditions, and when you start looking through these if you like glasses these filters, all of a sudden now you start becoming a lot more reflective about, hold on a sec, you know, because a lot of this media is written in such a way where it says, If this happens, this will happen, not this is going to happen. Yeah, not this is certainty and I can tell you. Most experts are wrong. Most of the time, you know, and in my book, pretty Tabriz how house prices. Right explain that I show you how, you know, over a few years we tracked experts and most experts were wrong. Most of the time. Okay. And that's the reality what gets column inches what gets the media is the guy that says 30% up. And the guy that says 30% down, not the guy that every year after year says 5% 5% 3% 8% drop 3% 5% 3%, they tend not to get noticed. Alright, because papers media wants sensationalism. So, timing is the first one, conditions is the next one. And the final one is motivation. Yeah, if this is a newspaper or an article written by somebody who is in the shares game, and they're slagging off property, you know, what's their motivation of course in other talk property because they make their money from shares, you know if they're an educational, you know magazine that sells share tips, of course, are going to rubbish our property that is what happens if they're a property company, and they're talking about how great property is and how bad she is going to be motivation. Now, a lot of people say to me but hold on what about qualification Surely it's better to listen to someone with lots of qualifications, you know, degrees and letters after name and a lot of stuff, you know I have a member of our member of the real estate agency so basically property sales and property management have two qualifications, yeah. The reality is, it's a great qualification level three qualification I'm currently doing level four as well. But the reality is, qualifications for me. Just show intelligence for a lot of things, it doesn't actually show the ability to be able to apply that into a real setting. Okay, so for some, some aspects really qualifications. Plus, Market knowledge and experience and years in market, and the ability to write lots of articles and books and things like this that generally shows a much better attitude towards taking the situation and applying it to real life. Yeah, you know that you're making predictions is a hard thing, and it is hard because a lot of it I do a lot of, you know, I spend a lot of time reading I spend a lot of time, bringing information in listening to you know markets mentors and my peer group all that sort of stuff. And I kind of through that get a sense where, and that's the sort that's where I make decisions on where we go in terms of where we invest the areas we invest the strategies we adopt all that sort of things. Okay, but all the time whenever somebody says something to me. I think what's the timing they're saying, what are the conditions they're putting on that. Okay. And it may be conditions that they're not even saying it may be conditions I go yes they're saying that because, and then motivation when I look at those three things. Generally, I'm able to assess that prediction assess that opinion in a much better manner. All right guys, have a great day, liquid passion, oh by the way if you want any further advice give the team a call, sit down have a chat with them, you know, get all your questions answered and get really certain I mean certainty is what this markets about, okay, and in fact any market is you want that level of certainty. Okay, so get speak to the team. If you have any questions, make sure you subscribe, like, you know, comment down in the comment section and I'll be happy to answer, but anyway guys have a great day live with passion, and, you know, we'll see you soon. Bye.


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